Weekly market recap & what's ahead

22 September 2025 (recap week of 15 to 19 September 2025)

Headlines & introduction

Markets absorbed a busy week of central bank decisions, inflation data, and geopolitical updates. The Fed delivered its first rate cut of the year, while the Bank of Japan surprised with hawkish commentary. Equities hit fresh highs as tech and AI enthusiasm returned, but macro risks—such as ETF shifts and shutdown risks—kept investors alert. Crypto saw inflows but faltered late in the week on liquidation waves. Volatility softened into Friday, though option expiry loomed.
It was a week of dovish policy, renewed risk appetite, and lingering crosswinds.

Equities

Fresh highs on Fed cut, AI optimism, and corporate headlines.
The S&P 500 gained 0.5% on Friday (19 Sep) to hit new all-time highs above 6,600, supported by lower yields and strong AI-linked names. Intel soared 22.8% on Nvidia’s $5bn investment, while Nvidia itself rose 3.5%. Oracle (+4.0%) rallied on Meta cloud deal talks, and Apple gained 3.2% earlier in the week after a J.P. Morgan upgrade. In Europe, tech surged with ASML +7.7% and SAP +5.4%, while UK equities rose modestly after the BoE slowed QT. In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei hit records, led by Lasertec +11%, but Hong Kong lagged.
Market pulse: Tech leadership and policy easing lifted global equities to fresh highs.

Volatility

Volatility eased post-Fed, but macro events still lurk.
The VIX fell to 15.70 on 19 Sep, retreating from midweek highs near 16.36. Short-term hedging cooled: VIX1D dropped 8.7%, and SPX options priced a ±33pt move for Friday. With the Fed and BoJ behind, implied vol steadied, yet Friday’s triple witching posed risks. The SPX straddle implied ~±1% weekly move heading into this week, reflecting caution around shutdown headlines, inflation data, and PMI figures.
Market pulse: Volatility is off the boil, but downside protection remains in demand.

Digital assets

ETFs drew flows, but crypto stumbled late in the week.
Bitcoin hovered near $117k midweek, backed by strong IBIT flows. Ethereum reached $4.6k, but ended the week below $4.2k after weekend weakness. $449m in liquidations on Sunday night (22 Sep) signaled fragility despite ETF support. Notably, XRP and DOGE ETFs debuted with solid volume: $24m for XRPR, $6m for DOJE in opening hours. ETHA flows were mixed, mirroring diverging sentiment.
Market pulse: Institutional support persists, but retail sentiment wobbled into the weekend.

Fixed income

Yields rose on central bank divergence and post-Fed digestion.
The US 10-year yield hit 4.14%, while the 2-year closed near 3.58%—both near recent range highs. Markets priced two more Fed cuts in 2025, but Powell stayed cautious. Japan’s curve steepened: 2-year JGBs surged to 0.93%, their highest since 2008, as the BoJ flagged future hikes and ETF tapering. The ECB and BoE held steady, while the Bank of Canada and Norway cut rates.
Market pulse: Rate cuts are here, but global bond markets brace for diverging paths.

Commodities

Gold surged, crude stalled, and silver broke out.
Gold climbed above USD 3,655, extending a five-week rally as ETF demand held strong. Silver hit a 14-year high at USD 43.69, while platinum tracked metals momentum. In energy, Brent crude remained range-bound below USD 70, pressured by IEA surplus forecasts and EU sanctions on Russian oil buyers. Agricultural prices softened, with cocoa and sugar slipping after recent strength.
Market pulse: Metals rallied on falling real yields, but crude is stuck in macro crossfire.

Currencies

USD firmed on post-FOMC momentum; JPY jumped on BoJ signal.
The US dollar rallied, especially versus GBP and JPY. USDJPY crossed 148, nearing technical resistance, while EURUSD slid below 1.1780 after peaking above 1.19. The Japanese yen rallied late in the week after the BoJ hinted at a rate hike and ETF unwind, with 2Y JGBs at 0.93%. Sterling weakened on dovish BoE tones and economic slowdown signals.
Market pulse: FX markets reflected diverging central bank signals and yield adjustments.

Key takeaways

• Equities surged on Fed cuts, AI momentum, and upbeat earnings.
• Volatility eased, but expected moves still imply caution ahead.
• Bitcoin and ETH slipped, despite strong early ETF inflows.
• Bond yields rose across major markets, driven by policy divergence.
• Gold and silver soared, while crude stayed stuck in its range.
• USD rallied, while JPY surged on BoJ shift.

Looking ahead (week of 22 to 26 September 2025)

The focus is firmly on the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, core PCE (Friday), which will help shape expectations for whether more rate cuts are delivered this year. Thursday’s final Q2 GDP revision and a heavy slate of data — including durable goods orders, advanced trade and inventory figures, new and existing home sales, and jobless claims — will offer a broader read on growth momentum. Consumer sentiment (Friday) adds color on demand resilience. Beyond data, a parade of Fed speakers, including Chair Powell, Williams, and Bowman, could clarify the balance of risks after last week’s cut. On the corporate side, Micron’s Tuesday earnings will test AI demand, while Costco (Thursday) and CarMax will reveal consumer spending and auto trends. Government shutdown risks remain a late-month wildcard as the Senate returns Friday.
Market pulse: the week is packed with catalysts, where inflation, Fed rhetoric, and earnings could either extend the rally or trigger profit-taking.

Conclusion

Last week confirmed a shift toward easing, with the Fed and BoC cutting rates and the BoJ inching toward tightening. Equities reached new highs as risk appetite returned, but rising bond yields, mixed crypto sentiment, and macro uncertainties remain. With inflation and shutdown risks ahead, investors may seek more clarity before extending positions.
Cautious optimism prevails, but data will now steer the narrative.