Market Quick Take – 29 July 2025

Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: US-EU trade deal, record US closes, Europe reverses gains, autos weak
• Volatility: VIX steady near 15, SPX implied move ±0.33% (day), ±0.8% (week)
• Digital assets: BTC steady, ETHA +4.4%, IBIT inflows, altcoins consolidate
• Fixed Income: European yields drop in first session after the EU-US trade deal
• Currencies: EUR crushed across the board after the EU-US trade deal
• Commodities: Gold and silver remain on the defensive, though ranges so far holding
• Macro events: US June JOLTS Job Openings and US July Consumer Confidence

Macro headlines

• US President Donald Trump gave Russia 10 to 12 days to agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine or face mounting sanctions and possibly secondary sanctions against countries that import Russian oil. This shortens the prior timeline for the threatened sanctions, which was set at 50 days earlier this month..
• The U.S. and China will resume trade talks today after top officials met in Stockholm on Monday, discussing disputes and extending their trade truce by three months. U.S. Treasury Chief Scott Bessent and China's Vice Premier He Lifeng led the negotiations. With an August 12 deadline looming, a lasting tariff agreement is needed to prevent major global supply chain disruptions and the reintroduction of triple-digit U.S. tariffs.
• CBI's UK retail sales gauge rose to -34 in July 2025 from June's -46, missing expectations of -26. Despite the improvement, retail sales volumes declined for the tenth month due to rising prices and economic uncertainty affecting consumer spending.
• The Dallas Fed’s Texas manufacturing index improved to 0.9 in July from -12.7 in June, showing stability after declines. Production surged to a three-year high, with orders, capacity use, and shipments turning positive. Manufacturers' outlook brightened and hiring increased, along with a sharp rise in work hours.
• Trump stated he will announce pharma tariffs soon and will address pharma issues with the UK, affirming he won't use tariffs to block the UK.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

• 0800 – ECB Jun CPI Expectations
• 0830 – UK Mortgage Approvals and Consumer Credit
• 1230 – US Jun. Advance Goods Trade Balance
• 1300 – US May S&P CoreLogic Home Price Index
• 1400 – US Jun. JOLTS Job Openings
• 1400 – US Jul. Consumer Confidence
• 1700 – US Treasuryto auction 7-year notes
• 0130 – Australia Jun. and Q2 CPI

Earnings events

Note: earnings announcement dates can change with little notice. Consult other sources to confirm earnings releases as they approach.

• Today: Visa, Procter & Gamble, UnitedHealth, L’Oreal, AstraZeneca, Merck, Booking Holdings, Boeing, Spotify, Air Liquide, Starbucks, Rio Tinto, Mondelez, Keyence, Royal Caribbean Cruises, UPS, Southern Copper, Paypal
• Wednesday: Microsoft, Meta, HSBC, Qualcomm, Airbus, Lam Research, Automatic Data Processing, UBS Group, Hermes, Trane Technologies, Robinhood Markets, BAE Systems, Ford
• Thursday: Apple, Amazon, Mastercard, AbbVie, Samsung Electronics, Shell, Schneider Electric, Safran, Ferrari, MercadoLibre, KLA Tencor, Microstrategy, Rolls Royce Holdings, The Southern Company, Coinbase, Tokyo Electron, Roblox, Cloudflare, BMW, Mercedes Benz,
• Friday: ExxonMobil, Chevron, Linde, Nintendo

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• US: US stocks were flat Monday as investors weighed a new US-EU trade agreement and awaited a busy week of earnings and economic data. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record highs, while the Dow fell 0.14%. Energy led gains with Exxon Mobil (+1%) and Chevron (+0.9%), while materials lagged. Traders look ahead to earnings from Meta, Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon, plus Wednesday’s Fed meeting, with markets watching for signs of a September rate cut.
• Europe: European markets reversed early gains as optimism over the US-EU trade deal faded. DAX -1.0%, CAC 40 -0.4%, STOXX 50 -0.3%. Automakers led losses after initially rallying—Porsche -4.3%, Volkswagen -3.9%, Rheinmetall -3.6%. The deal sets a 15% tariff on most EU goods and includes large EU purchases of US energy and military equipment. While seen as avoiding worst-case tariffs, concerns remain over its impact on growth and margins.
• UK: The FTSE 100 closed -0.4% at 9,081. Losses were led by BT (-5.4%), BAE Systems (-2.6%) and Marks & Spencer (-2.4%), partly offset by BP (+2.2%) and Airtel Africa (+1.6%). UK investors await June lending and money supply data today, followed by housing prices and PMI figures later this week.
• Asia: Asian stocks slipped as investors booked profits after recent gains. Hang Seng -1.1%, Nikkei 225 -0.9%, CSI 300 flat. Weak Hong Kong trade data weighed on sentiment, while South Korea’s KOSPI +0.6% gained on hopes of favorable US trade terms. Investors remain cautious ahead of US and Chinese trade talks and central bank meetings from the Fed and BoJ.

Volatility

• The VIX rose slightly to 15.03, with short-term gauges VIX1D at 7.93 (-10.9%) and VIX9D at 13.37 (+4.2%). Options imply modest SPX moves of ±21 points (0.33%) for the day and ±53 points (0.8%) for the week. Despite heavy earnings and a Fed meeting, low option premiums suggest traders view current policy and trade headlines as low-risk.

Digital Assets

• Bitcoin hovered near $118.8k (+0.6%) after last week’s rally, while Ether traded at $3.8k (+0.2%). BlackRock’s IBIT ETF gained +1.1% as inflows continued, and ETHA rose +4.4% on staking approval hopes. Altcoins consolidated, with Solana +0.9% and XRP +0.7%. Crypto-related equities were mixed—Coinbase -3.1%, Marathon Digital -0.5%, CleanSpark +1.8%. Institutional demand via ETFs like IBIT remains a key driver, helping dampen volatility.

Fixed Income

• The US Treasury yields trade quietly near the top of the recent range after uneventful US treasury auctcions of 2-year and 5-year notes. The FOMC meets tomorrow.
• European bond yields fell sharply yesterday after the spike late last week, perhaps as the EU-US trade deal is seen dampening the outlook for EU fiscal expansion and as calm relations, if at higher tariff levels, between the EU and US will mean headwinds for growth.

Commodities

• Gold prices have dropped further toward range lows as a suddenly stronger US dollar weighs. The next key focus lower is the twice-touched range low near USD 3,250 per ounce that is the low since a sharp consolidation in May.
• Silver rejected an attempt to take out the lows near USD 38 per ounce yesterday, with the next support at 37.50-37.25 if the lows are tested again in the near term.
• The major oil benchmarks rallied yesterday, but in the bigger picture remain stuck in tight ranges as Brent trades near USD 70 per barrel and WTI near 67 per barrel, needing to build a directional move of two or more dollars higher or four or more dollars lower to suggest the range will be challenged.

Currencies

• The US dollar and even more so the Japanese yen powered sharply higher yesterday, particularly against a suddenly weak Euro in the wake of the EU-US trade deal. The FOMC meets tomorrow, with no anticipation of a cut at the meeting, while the Bank of Japan meets on Thursday.
• EURUSD traded all the way to 1.1575 overnight, some 200 pips below the Monday high, which has it already challenging the range since late June of 1.1557. The range toward the prior major high of 1.1214 in late 2024 could be opened up on a significant break of 1.1500-1.1450. The euro was weak across the board.

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