Market Quick Take – 8 August 2025

Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: US mixed; Europe up on earnings; UK down post-BoE cut; Japan surges on tariff clarity
• Volatility: VIX mid-teens; options imply modest swings; SPX ±~35pts
• Digital assets: BTC/ETH firm; IBIT, ETHA higher; policy and legal wins boost sentiment
• Fixed Income: US treasury yields quiet despite weak T-bond auction, Fed governor nomination
• Currencies: Sterling rallies on surprisingly heavy dissent on BoE’s rate cut
• Commodities: COMEX gold futures spike on tariff shock
• Macro events: Bank of England Chief Economist Pill to speak, Canada July Jobs Report

Macro headlines

• President Donald Trump said he had chosen Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Stephen Miran to serve as a Federal Reserve governor, replacing the expiring term of Fed Governor Adriana Kugler who recently resigned and who’s term ends in January. Miran, who will need to be confirmed by the US Senate, is likely to provide another voice to support easier Fed policy and recently he has been a sharp Fed critic proposing changes that some would view as unorthodox.
• The premium for gold futures in New York over the London spot price jumped after the Financial Times reported that US imports of one-kilogram gold bullion bars are now subject to tariffs. According to a July 31 letter from the US Customs Border Protection agency, one-kilo and 100-ounce gold bars should be classified under a customs code subject to levies. The announcement has once again uprooted the mechanics of the market and the normal price relationship between futures and the London spot market.
• President Donald Trump said he’d be willing to meet with Vladimir Putin, even if Putin hadn’t yet agreed to also sit down with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. Trump told reporters he was “very disappointed” with Putin’s behavior and left open the possibility of additional penalties over the war in Ukraine as soon as Friday.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

1115 – Bank of England Chief Economist Pill to speak
1230 – Canada July Employment, Unemployment Rate

Earnings events

Note: earnings announcement dates can change with little notice. Consult other sources to confirm earnings releases as they approach.

• Today: Munich Re, NN Group, Kingspan, Unipol

Next Week

• Tuesday: Coreweave, Cardinal Health
• Wednesday: Cisco Systems, E.on
• Thursday: Applied Materials, Deere & Company, Hon Hai Precision, Nu Holdings, Adyen, Swiss Re, Ross Stores

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• US: Wall Street ended mixed on Thursday: S&P 500 -0.08%, Dow -0.51%, Nasdaq +0.35% (record) as strength in chipmakers and Apple offset healthcare weakness. Pressure followed new US tariffs (10%–41%) and reports that Christopher Waller is a leading contender for Fed chair, while Stephen Miran was nominated to the Board—reinforcing bets on a September rate cut. LLY -14% on obesity pill data, INTC -3% after political pressure, and AAPL +3% on a $100bn US investment pledge were key movers, with futures pointing mildly higher into Friday as investors weighed policy and earnings signals.
• Europe: European equities rallied: STOXX 50 +1.3%, STOXX 600 +1.2% as upbeat earnings and hopes for Ukraine de-escalation outweighed tariff concerns. Novo Nordisk surged after Lilly’s trial miss, Maersk and Allianz advanced on earnings beats, and Siemens rebounded, while Deutsche Telekom and Rheinmetall fell on weaker results. The CAC +1.0% and DAX +1.1% followed the broader tone, with travel, autos, and pharma leading into the weekend and traders watching upcoming geopolitical talks for momentum.
• UK: The FTSE 100 -0.69% to 9,100.77 after the BoE cut rates 25 bp to 4% in a split vote—lifting the pound and pressuring exporters. Gains came from InterContinental Hotels, while Hikma and BAE Systems lagged. The move marked the fifth consecutive cut and raised questions over how much policy room remains, with attention shifting to next week’s GDP data and the Bank’s balance-sheet strategy as inflation pressures persist.
• Asia: Asia traded mixed: Japan outperformed as tariff “overlap” issues were resolved, with Nikkei ~+2% and TOPIX hitting a record above 3,000 on strong results from SoftBank and Sony. Elsewhere, Hang Seng -0.6%, Kospi -0.7%, and ASX 200 -0.2% as US tariffs took effect and Chinese tech underperformed. Japanese exporters gained on reduced tariff fears, while regional sentiment remained cautious ahead of US–China trade developments and China’s upcoming inflation data.

Volatility

• Equity volatility eased further, with the VIX closing at 16.57 (day range 15.98–17.64), reflecting calmer trading despite tariff headlines. The SPX slipped 0.08%, and options pricing points to an expected move of about ±35 points (~0.55%) for the day. While short-dated hedging activity remains brisk, the broader picture suggests contained intraday swings rather than a shift into risk-off mode, marking a clear contrast to last week’s volatility spike.

Digital Assets

• Crypto stayed firm: BTC ~$116k and ETH ~$3.9k led majors, with spot ETFs reflecting the tone—IBIT higher and ETHA rebounding from mid-week outflows. Sentiment drew support from policy and legal news: the White House moved to open 401(k) plans to alternatives including crypto, and the SEC–Ripple appeals were dropped, removing a long-standing overhang for XRP. Crypto-linked equities like COIN and MSTR also advanced, with broader flows stabilizing after recent choppiness.

Fixed Income

• US Treasury yields remained relatively calm despite weak bidding metrics at an auction of US 30-year T-bonds yesterday, with the 30-year treasury yield unchanged this morning relatively to Wednesday’s close after the yield jumped from intraday lows on the intraday auction results yesterday.
• US President Trump’s nomination of Stephen Miran to the Fed Board of Governors failed to spark notable volatility in Fed policy expectations as he is not seen as the eventual nominee for Fed Chair once Powell’s term ends next May. He was nominated to fill the outgoing Kugler’s term, which expires in January.

Commodities

• Gold futures in New York soared relative to the London spot prices after the FT reported that the US would now apply tariffs on imports of one-kilogram gold bars, adding a fresh blow to Switzerland, the main precious metals hub. The December contract trades USD 100 above spot gold, a USD 60 increase in the last week. Spot gold, meanwhile, continues to hover near USD 3,400, with key resistance around USD 3,450, supported by the prospect of easier Fed policy ahead, robust China demand, and the latest mayhem in the exchange for physical (EFP) market.
• The Bloomberg Commodity Index is heading for a small weekly gain of 0.5% (5% YTD), with losses in energy, led by crude oil, being offset by gains across all other sectors, most notably precious metals led by silver (+4.4%), industrial metals led by zinc (+3.5%, and livestock which hit another record high on tight US supply.

   

Currencies

• Sterling rallied in the wake of the Bank of England meeting yesterday as the bank cut the policy rate 25 basis points to 4.00% as expected, but a very split of 5-4 in favour of the decision (with four dissenting on the side of no change to the rate) saw UK short-term rates backing up on doubts that the bank will further reduce the rate this year as much as previously anticipated. There was no guidance on the coming review of the Bank’s quantitative tightening programme, although pressure on long end Gilts was noted by the Bank yesterday.
• The euro broadly weakened intraday yesterday, largely around the timing of the sterling rally, likely on heavy EURGBP selling. But rising anticipation of a Trump-Putin summit may weigh as well, as this could reduce the urgency for fiscal expansion in the EU if a path to peace or at least an enduring ceasefire is possible in the Ukraine War
• The Swiss franc was weaker than a weak euro yesterday, possibly impacted by the ongoing head-scratching on the Trump administration’s 39% tariff on the country’s exports to the US, but also on the FT story that gold bullion imports to the US, one of the chief imports from Switzerland, would also be tariffed.

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