Market Quick Take – 7 August 2025

Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: Apple lifts Nasdaq; pharma stocks slump in Europe; BoE rate cut in focus
• Volatility: VIX drops to 16.77; SPX expected move ±29.5 points; options signal calm
• Digital assets: ETHA +3%; IBIT +1.4%; BTC steady; crypto miners rebound
• Fixed Income: Weak US 10-year treasury, but yields remain tame, reversing small surge
• Currencies: USD and JPY weak as EURUSD rises back above 1.1650
• Commodities: Crude oil prices crushed lower. Gold quiet in very narrow range. Silver rebound continues.
• Macro events: Bank of England, US Treasury to auction 30-year T-bonds.

Macro headlines

• US President Trump announced plans for a 100% tariff on semiconductor imports unless companies commit to moving their chip production to the US. The announcement was made with Apple CEO Tim Cook at Trump’s side. Cook revealed the intention by Apple to invest USD 100 billion in US-based manufacturing.
• The Trump White House announced an additional 25% tariff on Indian imports due to India's importing of Russian oi, doubling U.S. levies on India to 50%. President Trump stated this in an executive order. The tariffs start in 21 days, with an initial 25% tariff beginning Thursday. This action signals Trump's stance against nations purchasing Russian oil amid the Ukraine conflict. India called the tariffs “extremely unfortunate,” citing similar actions by other countries.
• US President Trump announced he'll nominate a replacement for Fed Governor Adriana Kugler by week's end and has four finalists for Fed Chair Jerome Powell's successor. Market expectations for a September rate cut have risen to 90% due to soft economic data, including stagnant services, weak hiring and rising prices from the latest ISM report, and just 73K payrolls added in July, indicating a labor market slowdown.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

0600 – Sweden Flash Jul. CPI
0600 – Germany Jun. Industrial Production
1100 – UK Bank of England Rate Announcement
1130 – UK BoE Press Conference w/ Governor Bailey
1230 – US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Claims
1400 – Canada July Ivey PMI
1700 – US Treasury to auction 30-year T-bonds
1900 – Mexico Central Bank Rate Announcement

Earnings events

Note: earnings announcement dates can change with little notice. Consult other sources to confirm earnings releases as they approach.

• Today: Eli Lilly, Toyota, Siemens, Deutsche Telekom, Allianz, Sony, Gilead, Conoco Philips, Softbank Group, Constellation Energy, Rheinmetall

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• US: US stocks extended gains on Wednesday, driven by earnings optimism and Apple’s $100 billion domestic investment pledge. The S&P 500 rose 0.73%, the Nasdaq 1.21%, and the Dow 0.18%, with consumer and tech sectors outperforming. Apple (+5.1%), Arista Networks (+17.5%), and McDonald’s (+3%) led gains, while AMD (-6.4%) and Disney (-2.7%) dragged. Trump imposed a 25% tariff on Indian goods and confirmed a 100% chip tariff, excluding US-based manufacturing. Futures point to continued strength, with Fed rate cut odds now above 93%.
• Europe: European markets ended mixed. The DAX rose 0.33%, CAC 40 +0.18%, and FTSE 100 +0.24%, while STOXX 600 slipped 0.1%, weighed by sharp losses in pharma stocks. Sanofi and Merck fell over 2%, Bayer dropped 10%, and Novo Nordisk lost 5.5%. These declines followed Trump’s threat of a 250% tariff on drug imports. Meanwhile, Vonovia (+3.5%) and Airbus (+1.5%) rose on earnings. Traders await earnings from Merck and Deutsche Telekom and today’s BoE decision, with a rate cut to 4% widely expected.
• UK: The FTSE 100 set a new record, lifted by Hiscox (+8.5%), BP (+3.2%), and Shell (+1.5%). However, Glencore (-5%) and Coca-Cola HBC (-7%) weighed on the index. Earnings were mixed, with insurer Hiscox announcing an upsized buyback and dividend increase, while Glencore cited weak commodity prices. UK construction PMI fell to 44.3, reinforcing expectations for a BoE rate cut today. Sentiment remains earnings-driven but cautious due to weak domestic data.
• Asia: Asian markets traded mixed. Japan’s Nikkei +0.7%, and South Korea’s KOSPI +0.6%, buoyed by Samsung’s supply deal with Apple. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng ended flat as Cathay Pacific (-2%) and pharma names dragged. Mainland China saw muted trading ahead of July trade data, while Australia’s ASX 200 slipped 0.2%. Trade friction remains in focus following Trump’s 100% semiconductor tariff. South Korean chipmakers secured exemptions, supporting Samsung (+2.3%) and SK Hynix (+0.3%).

Volatility

• Volatility continues to ease. The VIX fell to 16.77 (-6.05%), while short-term indicators VIX1D (-7.7%) and VIX9D (-10.8%) dropped sharply. Options suggest a quiet session, with the SPX expected to move ±29.5 points (0.46%) today. ETF outflows from VIX-linked products (-$24.2M) highlight the fading demand for hedging. Despite rising trade tensions, investor confidence is supported by earnings momentum and growing rate cut expectations.

Digital Assets

• Crypto markets held steady. Bitcoin traded at $114.7K (-0.28%), while Ethereum climbed to $3,695 (+0.33%), supported by strong spot ETF inflows. ETHA rose nearly 3%, and IBIT +1.4% after $42 million in new flows. XRP hovered near $3, while Solana (+0.5%) and Coinbase (+1.9%) saw moderate gains. Miners like MSTR (+2.1%), MARA (+1.7%), and IREN (+11%) outperformed on July output updates. ETF flows remain a key sentiment driver.

Fixed Income

• An auction of US 10-year treasury notes saw weak bidding bidding metrics, briefly spooking the market and sending US treasury yields higher, though treasuries generally recovered form and closed the day less than two basis points higher. The US Treasury is set to auction its longest 30-year T-bonds today.
• As Treasury Secretary Bessent has avoided increasing the size of treasury auctions for longer maturities, the size of the auctions of short-term T-bills is increasing, including a record USD 100 billion auction of 4-week T-bills today.
• An auction of 30-year Japanese government bonds overnight saw solid demand in line with the average over the last twelve months, with a solid bid-to-cover ratio of 3.43. Japan’s 30-year benchmark JGB yield trades near 3.06% this morning, down from the cycle high from mid-July at 3.22%

Commodities

• While the market has seen notable action in ETFs and mining stocks, the spot price for gold remains quiet in the 3,375 area with the two key range levels for gold at 3,450 to the upside and 3,250 to the downside. Choppy silver continues to recover from the sell-off, trading above USD 38/ ounce this morning for the first time in over a week.
• Crude prices slumped badly yesterday and have only rebounded slightly on US President’s move to threaten further sanctions on India for importing Russian crude, perhaps on noises that Russia is open to a ceasefire arrangement of some kind in the war in Ukraine. October Brent closed at a new one-month low yesterday before a modest rebound overnight. September WTI crude trades below 65 /barrel.

Currencies

• The US dollar and Japanese yen weakened yesterday, with the Euro the strongest G10 currency. EURUSD pulled above 1.1670 overnight and EURJPY teased above 172.00 at times,
• The Bank of England meeting today is expected to bring a 25 basis rate cut, and many will look closely at the bank’s plans for altering its pace of QT, or bond sales, for signs of an intent to slow the pace at which it sells gilts into the market (a dovish move). Sterling is on the defensive versus a strong euro as it trades at local resistance at 0.8735 this morning, while it has rebounded smartly versus the weak USD over the last few sessions, posting a new 6-day high above 1.3370 overnight.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.