Market Quick Take – 14 May 2025

Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: US-China tensions ease; Nasdaq rallies; chipmakers outperform; Dow dragged by healthcare
• Volatility: VIX futures rise despite equity gains; VVIX higher, indicating potential volatility ahead
• Digital assets: Bitcoin consolidates above $100K; Ethereum surges; crypto stocks rally notably
• Fixed Income: US 10-year reaches 4.5% amidst broad positive risk sentiment
• Currencies: The USD turns lower amid soft CPI and rising risk appetite
• Commodities: Crude pauses after four-day gain. Golds haven appeal fades
• Macro events: April CPI (final) from Germany, Sweden and Spain

Macro data and headlines

• Both headline and core US CPI for April came in softer than estimates at 0.2% MoM vs. Exp. 0.3% with clothing and new cars showing that companies are not yet passing tariff costs to consumers.
• Trump and Mohammed bin Salman, Saudi’s crown prince claim to pledge a total of $1 trillion of investments into the US, though only a cumulative total of $300b of investments was signed at the Riyadh conference. In addition, a USD 9 billion Saudi-US minerals memorandum of understanding was signed, intended to counter China's influence in the region.
• The US is considering allowing the UAE to purchase over a million advanced Nvidia chips, while Saudi Arabia collaborates with Nvidia to establish AI factories deploying 6,000 Blackwell GPUs, indicating significant strides in AI development.
• JPMorgan Chase & Co. raised its US growth forecast after a temporary US-China trade deal, abandoning its earlier recession prediction for 2025. Chief US Economist Michael Feroli noted that easing tariffs on China lowers recession risk this year, while still considering the risk elevated but below 50%.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

0600 – Germany April CPI (Final)
1430 – EIA's Weekly Crude and Fuel Stock Report
During the day: OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report

Earnings events

• Today: Tencent, Cisco Systems, Sony
• Thursday: Walmart, Deutsche Telekom, Allianz, Mitsubishi Financial, Deere, Applied Materials
• Friday: Richemont

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• US: US equities continued their upward momentum Tuesday, driven by easing US-China tensions and lower-than-expected inflation data. The S&P 500 gained 0.72%, while the Nasdaq surged 1.58%, marking its fifth consecutive positive session. Chipmakers led the rally, with Nvidia climbing 5.6% on a major AI deal with Saudi Arabia, boosting AMD and Broadcom over 4%. Conversely, the Dow fell 0.64%, dragged by UnitedHealth, down 17.8% after the CEO departure and guidance suspension. Coinbase rocketed 24% on news of inclusion in the S&P 500.
• Europe: European stocks maintained a positive trend Tuesday, supported by the temporary truce in the US-China trade war. The STOXX 50 rose 0.4%, while the STOXX 600 ended flat. Automakers outperformed, with Volkswagen, BMW, and Stellantis up between 3%-4.5%. Industrials also saw gains, Siemens and Airbus rising around 1.5%. Conversely, Munich Re fell 4.5% after reporting wildfire-related losses. Germany’s DAX rose 0.31%, boosted by improved ZEW economic sentiment.
• UK: The FTSE 100 closed nearly unchanged, down just 0.02%, pausing after recent gains amid mixed corporate and economic signals. Entain soared 6% following a UBS upgrade, but AstraZeneca (-0.8%), HSBC (-0.4%), and Unilever (-1.4%) weighed on the index. UK unemployment rose to 4.5%, reinforcing expectations of potential rate cuts by the Bank of England.
• Asia: Asian markets saw mixed performance Wednesday after strong recent gains. Japan's Nikkei fell 0.8% due to yen appreciation and rate hike bets. Hong Kong's Hang Seng bounced back 1.84%, driven by tech stocks ahead of key earnings. South Korea’s KOSPI also rose, driven by semiconductor giants Samsung and SK Hynix. China's markets were subdued, reflecting caution despite US-China trade optimism.

Volatility

Volatility (VIX) ended slightly down at 18.22 (-0.9%) as the SPX closed higher. However, VIX futures rose significantly this morning (+5.22%), indicating rising caution despite strong equity markets. VVIX increased by 4.16%, suggesting market participants anticipate potential volatility ahead despite current calm.

Digital Assets

Bitcoin remained firm around $103,700, consolidating recent gains following a surge above $100K due to easing macroeconomic tensions and sustained institutional inflows. Ethereum briefly rallied 10%, signaling renewed bullish momentum in major altcoins. Crypto-related equities jumped notably; Coinbase soared 24% on S&P 500 inclusion, and MicroStrategy climbed 4% as Bitcoin held strong.

Fixed Income

• US treasury yields rose further on Tuesday amidst broad positive risk sentiment following the 90-day suspension of US-China tariffs, with the 10-year treasury benchmark reaching the key 4.50% psychological level. The short end of the yield curve rose as well, as the 2-year yield hit 4.02% after a softer than expected CPI print lowered rate cut expectations.

Commodities

• Brent crude trades a tad softer near USD 66 after a four-day run of gains took prices near the top of an established range, supported by the US-China tariffs truce, and after Trump said the US will exert maximum pressure on Iranian energy exports if a nuclear deal isn’t reached. Ahead of the EIA’s weekly update, the API said US stockpiles rose by 4.29 million barrels last week. Also today, OPEC’s monthly oil market report.
• Gold’s haven appeal faded during the Asian session amid stock market exuberance weighing on prices, and after a softer CPI print was all but ignored given an expected pickup once import tariffs start to bite. Key support around USD 3,200 followed by USD 3,165.
• Cocoa prices jumped 10% on Tuesday to near USD 10k/tons due to renewed concerns over the quality and size of the Ivory Coast’s mid-crop, while raw sugar futures rose 3.3% in New York, supported by higher fuel costs raising speculation mills may increase production of ethanol at the expense of sugar.

Currencies

• The US dollar traded softer throughout yesterday, giving back most of Monday’s strong tariff truce related gains with traders instead turning to risk-sensitive currencies, with Sweden's krona and Norway's krone leading in Europe
• Key data from the US this week includes the April CPI report up today and the April Retail Sales report on Thursday.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.