Market Quick Take – 6 August 2025

Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: Weak ISM services; Trump tariff threats; mixed earnings; European resilience
• Volatility: VIX down to 17.85; curve in contango; expected SPX move ±33 pts
• Digital assets: ETH ETF outflows hit record; IBIT, ETHA drop; SEC easing on staking
• Fixed Income: US yields back up on soft US 3-year treasury auction
• Currencies: USD edges lower after weak US ISM Services, JPY takes the upper hand
• Commodities: Gold miners hitting record highs as rate cuts loom
• Macro events: US 10-year treasury auction, Two voting FOMC members to speak

Macro headlines

• A Bloomberg exclusive says that Russia is weighing options for a concession to US President Trump’s demands for a ceasefire in the war on Ukraine in the form of an “air truce” that would pause drone and missile strikes. US envoy Steve Witkoff is set to visit Moscow this week ahead of an deadline set by Trump, who is said to be readying sanctions against Russia’s “shadow fleet” of oil tankers delivering crude exports around the world.
• US President Trump said the U.S. and China are nearing a trade truce extension, easing tariffs and export restrictions. He might meet President Xi by year-end if a deal is made, he claimed. The truce expires August 12.
• Trump warned that if the EU fails to make agreed US investments, tariffs will rise to 35%. If investments occur, tariffs will drop to 15%. He also reiterated plans to substantially increase India's tariffs within 24 hours due to its Russian oil purchases.
• Trump told CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Tuesday that tariffs on imported pharmaceuticals could eventually reach 250%. He plans to start with a "small tariff," raising it to 150% and then 250% within 18 months.
• USISM Services PMI fell to 50.1 in July from 50.8 in June, missing the 51.5 forecast, showing sector stagnation. Business activity, new orders, and inventories all slowed, while price pressures reached their highest since October 2022 at 69.9 versus 66.5 expected, with tariffs affecting commodities a major concern.
• The US trade deficit fell to $60.2 billion in June, the lowest since September 2023, from $71.7 billion in May, exceeding the $61.6 billion forecast. Imports fell 3.7% to $337.5 billion, led by declines in pharmaceuticals, cars, crude oil, and nuclear fuel. Exports decreased 0.5% to $277.3 billion, affected by drops in metal shapes, nonmonetary gold, and computer accessories.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

1430 – US Weekly DoE Crude Oil and Product Inventories
1700 – US to Sell USD 10-year Notes
1800 – US Fed’s Cook and Collins, both voters on the FOMC, to participated in panel

Earnings events

Note: earnings announcement dates can change with little notice. Consult other sources to confirm earnings releases as they approach.

• Today: Novo Nordisk, McDonalds, Disney, Uber, Shopify, AppLovin, DoorDash
• Thursday: Eli Lilly, Toyota, Siemens, Deutsche Telekom, Allianz, Sony, Gilead, Conoco Philips, Softbank Group, Constellation Energy, Rheinmetall

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• US: US stocks retreated Tuesday as fresh stagflation fears emerged. The S&P 500 fell 0.49%, Nasdaq -0.65%, and Dow -0.14%, weighed by a weak ISM Services print (50.1) and Trump’s renewed tariff threats—up to 250% on pharma and upcoming levies on semiconductors. Utilities and tech lagged. Palantir (+7.8%) and Pfizer (+5.2%) rose on earnings, while Vertex (-20.6%) and SMCI (-16.3%) tumbled. AMD (-6.3%) dropped post-close on weak China data center sales. Today’s focus shifts to earnings from Disney, Uber, McDonald’s, and Airbnb, all expected to move markets.
• Europe: European markets extended gains Tuesday, shrugging off US tariff noise. The STOXX 50 rose 0.2%, STOXX 600 +0.1%, supported by strong earnings from Infineon (+4.6%) and Smith & Nephew (+15%). France’s CAC 40 slipped 0.14%, dragged by LVMH and Schneider Electric. Germany’s DAX rose 0.37%, helped by Airbus (+1.7%) and BP (+2.8%). Swiss stocks rebounded on hopes of tariff negotiations. Overall, sentiment improved on solid earnings and easing Fed expectations, though analysts warn 2026 earnings guidance may face tariff-related revisions.
• UK: The FTSE 100 gained for a second session, closing up 0.16% at a new record of 9142.73. Strong corporate earnings drove gains, with Smith & Nephew surging over 15% on a beat-and-buyback combo. Diageo (+4.1%), Fresnillo (+6%), and BP (+2.6%) also rose, supported by better margins and upbeat guidance. Investors await Thursday’s Bank of England decision, with expectations shifting toward rate cuts later this year. Sterling edged up to $1.33, and UK 10Y yields slipped slightly on dovish bets.
• Asia: Asia traded mixed as tariff concerns lingered. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose +0.08%, despite weakness in tech and pharma. Li Auto (-3.5%) and CSPC (-2.9%) dragged, while Wuling Motors jumped 7.7%. China’s CSI300 rose slightly on trade deal hopes as Trump said a truce extension with Xi is “very close.” Japan’s Nikkei gained +0.5%, Australia’s ASX hit another record. India’s Sensex fell -0.4% on US pressure over Russian oil. The RBI decision looms, with markets split on a potential rate cut.

Volatility

• Market volatility eased further on Tuesday, with the VIX dipping to 17.85 (-1.88%) and front-month VIX futures near 18.05. The volatility curve remains in contango, suggesting no immediate market stress. SPX 1-day options imply an expected move of ±33 points (~0.53%) today. Despite ongoing tariff headlines, realised volatility continues to settle, and investors are showing limited demand for protection. VIX-linked ETFs saw the largest outflows since April, with $102M exiting long-VIX funds, reflecting declining hedging appetite.

Digital Assets

• Crypto markets softened in sync with equities. Bitcoin trades near $114.1K (+0.005%), while Ethereum lost ground to $3.64K (-0.64%) after spot ETH ETFs saw a record $465M outflow Monday, led by BlackRock’s ETHA (-2.63%). IBIT also slipped -1.0%. Altcoins like Solana (-2.3%), XRP (-0.45%), and meme coins underperformed. SEC clarified that some liquid staking activities aren’t securities, providing regulatory relief. Meanwhile, Trump may sign an executive order investigating crypto-related debanking. Sentiment remains cautious but long-term flows into ETFs suggest institutional interest remains intact.

Fixed Income

• An auction of US 3-year treasury notes saw weak bidding from foreign entities, near the lowest since 2022, as yields at the short end of the US treasury yield curve backed up several basis points after their recent slide, while longer treasury yields backed up less.
• As Treasury Secretary Bessent has avoided increasing the size of treasury auctions for longer maturities, the size of the auctions of short-term T-bills is increasing, including a record USD 100 billion auction of 4-week T-bills tomorrow.

Commodities

• Crude prices are staging a small rebound following a four-day slump, with Trump’s threat about secondary sanctions on Russian importers of oil receiving some attention despite reports that Russia is considering offering him an olive branch. Overall, the tariff rollouts, softening US economic data, and rising OPEC+ production may curb any fresh upside attempts.
• Gold continues to attract support from investors looking for a resumption of US rate cuts—and with that, lower funding costs. However, while the yellow metal has remained rangebound since April, the mining sector is hotting up, with a major ETF tracking gold miners, hitting a fresh record high on Tuesday, up 67% YTD. Newmont and Agnico Eagle Mines—two of the biggest miners—trade up 81% and 72%, respectively. Silver miners are not far behind with the biggest silver miners ETF trading up 60% YTD.

Currencies

• The US dollar edged broadly lower yesterday after a shallow consolidation of the steep sell-off late last week, with EURUSD hovering near 1.1600 resistance at 1.1580+ this morning, while USDJPY was capped overnight well ahead of 148.00 and dipped below 147.50 later in the Asian session.
• Ahead of the Bank of England meeting tomorrow, expected to bring a 25 basis rate cut, sterling traded steady after the sharp weakening on the bout of weak risk sentiment late last week, stabilizing near 0.8700 in EURGBP, while GBPUSD has bounced back above 1.3300 after a 1.3142 low last week.

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