Quarterly Outlook
Q3 Investor Outlook: Beyond American shores – why diversification is your strongest ally
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
Investment and Options Strategist
Data through market close 22 September 2025
This monitor scans US-listed equity and index options to identify where open interest (OI) clusters and how institutional activity shapes market sentiment. The focus is on the top 20 underlyings by total OI, with broader observations drawn from the top 100.
Each edition also features a deep dive on a single name showing unusual flows, rising implied volatility, or proximity to a key event. This week’s focus is on Oracle (ticker ORCL:xcbf).
Oracle has remained in focus among options traders following its recent surge and management reshuffle, including the appointment of two co-CEOs. The options market has responded with elevated implied volatility and increased positioning in October contracts. Below is a snapshot of open interest distribution for the 17 October 2025 expiry.
The chart shows where the largest concentrations of call (blue) and put (orange) positions currently sit. Several observations stand out:
Call open interest dominates between the 300 and 360 strike levels, with notable peaks around 330. This could reflect either bullish positioning or call-writing strategies by holders of the stock.
Put interest is lower and more dispersed, with key levels at 280 and 300, suggesting less demand for downside protection—at least for this expiry.
The overall put/call open interest ratio is 0.66, which means there are roughly two call contracts for every put contract open. That leans modestly bullish in sentiment, or at minimum, suggests limited hedging demand.
This positioning aligns with broader options data:
In short, the 330–360 zone may act as a resistance band where many call positions are already open, while support may emerge near 300–310—especially if selling pressure brings the stock closer to previously active put levels.
With implied volatility still elevated and option prices reflecting increased uncertainty, some traders may explore premium-selling strategies that benefit from time decay and rich option premiums. Here are a few ways the current open interest landscape might be interpreted from different viewpoints:
These examples are provided for educational purposes only and are not investment advice. Open interest levels and implied volatility can be useful reference points, but outcomes depend on market conditions and individual risk tolerance. Always consider using defined-risk strategies and ensure a clear understanding of the potential risks and rewards before entering any options trade.
Rank | Ticker | Name | Last | IV Rank (%) | Total OI | 1M OI % Chg | Options Vol | P/C Vol |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | $SPX | S&P 500 Index | 6664.36 | 9.0% | 23.6M | +10.7% | 4.4M | 1.248 |
2 | NVDA | Nvidia Corp | 176.67 | 5.8% | 20.8M | +5.5% | 2.6M | 0.499 |
3 | SPY | S&P 500 SPDR | 663.70 | 9.5% | 19.4M | +6.6% | 7.9M | 1.301 |
4 | IWM | Russell 2000 Ishares ETF | 242.98 | 7.3% | 13.6M | +10.6% | 1.8M | 1.437 |
5 | $VIX | CBOE Volatility Index | 16.15 | 5.6% | 11.2M | −9.9% | 326.2K | 0.548 |
6 | HYG | High Yield Corp Bond ETF | 81.26 | 14.5% | 10.8M | +19.3% | 585.0K | 1.823 |
7 | QQQ | Nasdaq QQQ Invesco ETF | 599.35 | 8.0% | 10.8M | +13.8% | 4.5M | 1.275 |
8 | TSLA | Tesla Inc | 426.07 | 23.6% | 9.1M | +14.7% | 3.4M | 0.620 |
9 | EEM | Emrg Mkts Ishares MSCI ETF | 53.01 | 10.7% | 8.1M | +13.1% | 139.9K | 0.612 |
10 | INTC | Intel Corp | 29.58 | 29.9% | 6.9M | +8.0% | 1.5M | 0.621 |
11 | SLV | Silver Trust Ishares | 39.04 | 20.3% | 6.6M | +12.4% | 1.2M | 0.166 |
12 | IBIT | Ishares Bitcoin Trust ETF | 65.37 | 6.8% | 6.3M | +16.7% | 753.1K | 0.392 |
13 | TLT | 20+ Year Treas Bond Ishares ETF | 89.02 | 6.0% | 6.3M | +8.2% | 583.2K | 0.592 |
14 | AAPL | Apple Inc | 245.50 | 12.9% | 5.9M | +4.7% | 2.8M | 0.334 |
15 | XLF | S&P 500 Financials Sector SPDR | 54.25 | 11.4% | 5.6M | +8.4% | 132.2K | 1.979 |
16 | FXI | China Largecap Ishares ETF | 40.93 | 6.0% | 5.4M | +12.2% | 174.4K | 0.317 |
17 | GLD | Gold SPDR | 339.18 | 17.8% | 4.9M | +24.0% | 504.3K | 0.518 |
18 | EWZ | Brazil Ishares MSCI ETF | 30.93 | 17.3% | 4.8M | +18.3% | 64.2K | 0.696 |
19 | NIO | Nio Inc ADR | 7.37 | 54.9% | 4.8M | +9.1% | 305.2K | 0.263 |
20 | AMD | Adv Micro Devices | 157.39 | 18.2% | 4.3M | +8.6% | 763.2K | 0.412 |
This table shows the 20 listed options with the highest total open interest, combining calls and puts. Open interest data reflects active outstanding contracts and offers insights into market liquidity, sentiment, and positioning.
What the columns mean (short version):
Last = Last traded price of the underlying
IV Rank = Implied volatility rank (0–100 scale)
Total OI = Combined open interest for puts and calls
1M OI % Chg = Change in total open interest over the past month
Options Vol = Daily trading volume in options
P/C Vol = Put/Call volume ratio (based on daily volume)
For more detail, see the full glossary at the bottom of this article.
Note: Data reflects total listed US options across all expiries.Looking beyond the top 20, a few underlyings stood out for their sharp increase in open interest. Discovery (WBD), Oracle (ORCL), and Wolfspeed (WOLF) all posted 1-month OI gains of over 50%, pointing to fresh institutional activity. JD.com (JD) and Lyft (LYFT) also saw large increases, suggesting growing trader engagement in Chinese tech and ride-hailing names.
On the volatility front, Wolfspeed leads the pack with an IV Rank near 90%, implying that options traders are pricing in major potential swings. Other names like Barnes Group (B) and Kenvue (KVUE) also show elevated implied volatility, potentially tied to earnings or narrative catalysts.
Finally, put/call volume ratios reveal where market participants may be positioning defensively. The semiconductor ETF SMH saw a P/C ratio near 6.7, indicating strong demand for protective puts. ARKK and XLF also showed elevated ratios, hinting at downside hedging in both innovation and financial sectors. On the flip side, names like Grab (GRAB), Hertz (HTZ), and Core Scientific (CORZ) saw extremely low P/C ratios—suggesting either speculative call buying or lack of hedging interest.
Several names in the broader top-100 cohort showed unusually low implied volatility rankings. Vale (VALE), GameStop (GME), and MicroStrategy (MSTR) all had IV Ranks below 5%, signaling that options are pricing in little movement despite each ticker’s history of volatility. This could present an opportunity for traders expecting surprises—or a sign of fading narratives.
In contrast, the elevated put/call volume ratios in SMH, ARKK, and XLF suggest that investors are actively positioning for downside in semiconductors, disruptive tech, and financials. This could reflect broader macro caution, especially given the Fed’s shifting tone and ongoing geopolitical concerns.
Lastly, the top 20 list continues to show a healthy mix of macro and stock-specific interest. With eight ETFs and index products represented, traders are still positioning around broader market themes. But with 12 single-name equities also featured, there's plenty of targeted activity in key sectors like semis, electric vehicles, and metals.