Asia Market Quick Take – 04 February, 2026

Key points:

• Macro: US Economic Sentiment Index rises to 48.8
• Equities: Paypal plunges 20% on earnings miss; AMD down 5% after-market
• FX: AUDUSD rises above 0.70 after RBA rate hike
• Commodities: Gold, Silver and Copper rebounds
• Fixed income: Yields rise as investors assess Warsh’s monetary policy

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

• The RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism Index for the US rose to 48.8 in February 2026, exceeding expectations. The Six-Month Economic Outlook increased to 43.8, Personal Financial Outlook improved to 56.9, and Confidence in Federal Economic Policies grew to 45.7.
• The S&P Global Australia Services PMI jumped to 56.3 in January from 51.1 in December, showing the fastest growth in nearly four years. The increase was due to strong service activity, new orders, and export demand. Employment grew amid labor constraints, while business confidence fell and inflation pressures eased.
• Hong Kong's retail sales rose 5.1% year-on-year in December 2025, up from 4.1% in November. Declines were seen in food, fuels, clothing, and department stores, while sales for supermarkets, valuable gifts, and consumer durable goods improved. Monthly retail activity grew 3.9%, rebounding from a 4.1% decrease.

Equities: 

• US - S&P 500 fell 0.7%, Nasdaq 100 slid 1.4%, and Dow dropped 0.3% due to tech and chip valuation concerns. Losses hit AI and semiconductor stocks as higher US yields prompted profit-taking. Earnings volatility saw Intuit fall 10.9% and PayPal plunge 20.3%, while Palantir rose 6.8% and AMD down more than 5% post market despite beating estimates. Novo Nordisk fell as much as 14% after a trading halt as the company warned about its 2026 outlook, expecting a 5-13% decline in sales and operating profit.
• Japan - Nikkei 225 climbed 3.92% to an all-time high of 54,721, driven by tech and financial stock gains. A weaker yen and positive US activity supported the rise, with standout performers including Kioxia, Advantest, SoftBank, Mizuho, and Mitsubishi UFJ.
• Hong Kong - Hang Seng gained 59 points, or 0.2%, to 26,835, recovering from earlier losses. U.S. stock futures and strong U.S. factory activity boosted sentiment, as did mainland equities. Leading gains were CSPC Pharma, up 8.2%, and precious metals stocks. Focus shifts to upcoming Hong Kong December retail sales data.
• Germany - DAX 40 closed 0.1% lower at 24,775, near one-week highs. Daimler Truck rose 5.8%, Siemens Energy gained 4.6%, while Zalando fell 11.4% due to social media commerce challenges. Merck dropped 2.6% with a weak 2026 outlook, and SAP and Infineon fell on AI concerns.

Earnings this week:

• Wednesday: Uber, Alphabet, Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk, ARM, Boston Scientific, Qualcomm, Johnson Controls, AbbVie, Snap, Symbotic, Amcor, CME Group, UBS
• Thursday: ConocoPhillips, Amazon, Energizer, Strategy Blocks, Shell, Roblox, Reddit, Cigna, Estee Lauder, Affirm
• Friday: Centene, Canopy Growth, Cboe, Biogen, Nvent, Under Armour, Toyota

FX:

• EURUSD trades around 1.18 as the ECB is expected to keep rates steady amid resilient growth and near-target inflation. The AUDUSD rose to 0.70 after the RBA's rate hike to 3.85% due to strong inflation and demand. USDJPY was at 155.50 per dollar, pressured by strong US data and PM Takaichi's support for a weaker yen benefiting exports, as fiscal stimulus is anticipated ahead of the Feb. 8 election.

Commodities:

• WTI crude oil steadied at $62.5 per barrel with eased US-Iran tensions.
• Gold rose 5% to $4,920 per ounce amid policy concerns after Trump's Fed chair nomination.
• Silver rebounded 10% to $87.5 per ounce after prior selloffs.
• Copper rose to $6.1 per pound due to Chinese demand and renewable energy project interest.

Fixed income:

• The 10-year US Treasury yield rose past 4.29%, nearing its January high of 4.3%, as markets assessed Fed policy under incoming Chairman Kevin Warsh, known as an inflation hawk. Investors shifted from Treasuries amid a rebound in precious metals and higher exchange margins. Yields were further boosted by positive US manufacturing data.

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