Weekly market recap & what's ahead

14 July 2025 (recap week of 7 to 11 July 2025)

Headlines & introduction

It was a tense but resilient week for global markets as tariff rhetoric escalated sharply, yet tech stocks and crypto defied the noise. While President Trump’s threats of 30–50% tariffs unsettled sentiment, Nvidia’s $4T valuation milestone and strength in digital assets offset some of the geopolitical pressure. With inflation data and earnings from top banks due this week, investors are bracing for clarity—or more chaos.
Tariff shockwaves hit sentiment, but tech strength and crypto resilience steadied risk appetite.

Equities

US: Markets stumbled early in the week (S&P 500 -0.79% on 8 Jul) as Trump imposed new 40% tariffs on 14 countries. However, optimism returned midweek with Nvidia (+0.75% on 11 Jul) surpassing $4T in value and Delta Air Lines soaring +12% on 11 Jul after strong Q2 earnings. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 hit new highs Thursday before slipping on Friday amid further tariff threats.
Europe: European equities rallied midweek (DAX +1.42% on 10 Jul) on signs of a US-EU deal, but fell Friday (DAX -0.82%) as Trump revived tariff threats. Luxury and autos like BMW, LVMH, and Stellantis were particularly volatile.
UK: The FTSE 100 reached a new record on Thursday (+1.23%) as miners surged on copper tariff news, led by Glencore, Rio Tinto, and Anglo American. It lost ground Friday on disappointing GDP data.
Asia: Hong Kong's Hang Seng hit a four-month high (+1.7% on 11 Jul), while Japan and South Korea were mixed. Chinese equities outperformed, supported by export strength and easing inflation concerns.
Equity momentum held despite trade threats, powered by tech gains and earnings optimism.

Volatility

Volatility spiked early in the week as tariff fears grew, with the VIX rising to 17.79 (8 Jul). But it quickly reverted, closing at 15.78 (11 Jul)—its lowest level since March. Ultra-short measures like VIX1D and VIX9D dropped to 9.49 and 12.46, respectively.
SPX options priced in a ±24-point move (11 Jul), suggesting investors remained cautiously positioned but not panicked.
Volatility rose briefly, but calmer markets returned by week's end as hedging eased.

Digital assets

Bitcoin ended the week strong and surged above $121,000 early Monday (14 Jul), setting a new record just after the close of the prior week. ETF inflows remained robust: IBIT +4.2%, lifting holdings above 700K BTC. Ethereum rallied to $3,013 (+2.07%), with ETHA rising +7.9% on $158M in inflows. Altcoins also gained: XRP +1.55%, Solana +0.75%, Dogecoin +6%.
More than $1B in short positions were liquidated in 24 hours, underscoring strong institutional and retail momentum.
Bitcoin’s breakout occurred early Monday, capping a bullish week fueled by ETF demand and regulatory anticipation.

Fixed income

US 10Y Treasury yields hit 4.42% (12 Jul) before stabilizing at 4.35%, driven by heavy issuance and tariff-linked inflation fears.
The 2Y yield hovered at 3.91%, keeping the 10–2 spread around +50 bps, as traders nudged up expectations for a September rate cut.
German Bunds followed suit (10Y near 2.70%), while Japanese 30Y yields topped 3% for the first time in decades.
Yields fluctuated on policy risk and strong auction demand, with cut expectations back in play.

Commodities

Copper surged on tariff fears, with New York prices reaching a near 30% premium over London.
Gold held flat on the week near $3,359/oz, but silver rallied toward a 13-year high at $37.32.
Oil dropped midweek (Brent -2%) before rebounding to $70.5/bbl, supported by Russia sanctions chatter.
Agriculture slumped, with corn down 5% as weather improved and demand slowed.
Copper led on tariffs, while precious metals benefited from haven flows; oil and grains diverged.

Currencies

The USD ended the week higher, with the DXY up 0.7%, supported by trade anxiety.
EUR/USD dipped to 1.168, while USD/JPY hovered above 147.
The AUD outperformed after the RBA held rates steady, but CAD and MXN slumped on new tariff threats.
Emerging market currencies were broadly weaker ahead of US inflation data.
The dollar gained as safe-haven demand rose, especially versus tariff-exposed currencies.

Key takeaways

• Trump escalated tariffs, targeting the EU, Canada, Brazil, and Mexico.
• Volatility rose early but faded as markets regained composure.
• Bitcoin hit $121K Monday morning; Ethereum topped $3K; ETF flows strong.
• Bond yields fluctuated, with expectations shifting toward a September rate cut.
• Copper surged; gold and silver held firm; grains sold off.
• USD strengthened, while AUD outperformed and CAD, MXN declined.

Looking ahead (14 to 18 July 2025)

• Tuesday (15 Jul): US CPI, JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, BlackRock, Citigroup earnings
• Wednesday (16 Jul): PPI, Beige Book, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs
• Thursday (17 Jul): US retail sales, TSMC, Netflix, GE, PepsiCo earnings
• Friday (18 Jul): US housing starts, American Express, 3M
• Fed speakers: Bowman (15 Jul), Williams (16 Jul), Goolsbee (18 Jul)
• Markets will watch for any EU response to Trump tariffs and crypto regulation news from Washington

Conclusion

Markets absorbed a torrent of trade news with relative calm. Equities, led by tech and airlines, pushed higher midweek, while crypto surged to fresh highs. Treasury yields reflected both inflation worries and rate cut hopes. With earnings season now kicking off and inflation data due, investors face a pivotal week. The tone set over the next few days could shape sentiment well into Q3.