Morning Brew July 16 2025

Good morning,

Yesterday’s CPI print confirmed signs of inflation and pushed yields higher. This boosted the USD and weighed on equities.

As Nvidia announced to resume the sale of AI Chips to China and rose 4% on the news, the Nasdaq ended green while the Dow and the S&P ended lower Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang described artificial intelligence models from Chinese firms Deepseek, Alibaba and Tencent as world class.

Bank earnings were strong but the markets take was less positive, Well Fargo fell 5.5% and Blackrock lost 5.9%, Citi was the exception gaining 3.7% and is now at the highest since the Global financial crisis. 

The US 5090 is trading at 6230, the US 30 43930 and the US Tech 100 NAS 22825, the GER40 is 23945.

ASML warned it may not achieve growth in 2026, even after its second quarter bookings beat market expectations.

Traders are currently expecting a little less than 2 rate cuts from the fed this year even as Donald Trump called for the Fed to lower rates and the 30 Year US Yield rose to above 5%.

EURUSD is now off 2 cents off the high at 1.1620, GBPUSD 1.34 and USDJPY 148.80. The weak yen is a little curious as Japanese yields are on the rise but the currency seems not to appreciate it.

Gold and Silver are scared of the higher yields and retreated to now 3340 and 37.85, Bitcoin is 118000.

Today, we expect some important earnings, the US PPI and Industrial Production and aggressive US government statements.

The pressure on team Trump for the Epstein Files and fallout from the Texan flood are likely to cause attempts to distract.

Trade safely

 Wednesday, July 16

- EU Trade Balance

- United Kingdom: Inflation (CPI,

- United States: Producer Price Index

Earnings: ASML, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Johnson&Johnson, Morgan Stanley, United, Alcoa, KinderMorgan,

Thursday, July 17

- Australia: Labor Market Data
- EU Inflation

- United Kingdom: Labor Market Data

- United States: Retail Sales Data (June)

Earnings: TSMC, Pepsi, US Bancorp, Abott, Novartis, Netflix, Interactive,

Friday, July 18

- Japan CPI

- United States: Preliminary Consumer Confidence Index

Earnings: Huntington, 3M American Express, Charles Schwab,