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CFDs and forex spot transactions are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor lose money when trading CFDs and/or forex spot with this provider. 0.42% of retail clients trading in leveraged products experience a negative account balance after a stop out occurred.
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CFDs and forex spot transactions are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor lose money when trading CFDs and/or forex spot with this provider. 0.42% of retail clients trading in leveraged products experience a negative account balance after a stop out occurred. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs, forex spot transactions or any of our other products work and whether you can afford to take high risk of losing your money.
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Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew April 17 2025

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  Nervous trading into the Easter Holiday

Good morning,

As we approach the Easter holiday, please note that the next update will be on Tuesday. You can find our trading schedule at the bottom of the trading conditions page: Trading Conditions.

Yesterday, the Dow ended down 1.7%, the S&P 500 fell by 2.2%, and the Nasdaq dropped 3.1% due to new escalations in the Sino-US trade war. New curbs on chip exports are weighing on tech, and a concerned outlook by Jerome Powell added further pressure. Worryingly, Powell indicated that the Fed might face a situation where its two mandates contradict each other, leading to both high unemployment and high inflation. TSMC reported strong earnings but with an uncertain outlook. Gold rose to new records, trading at 3333, while silver weakened again to 32.55. Let us take the opportunity to congratulate Ole Hansen for predicting this. The USD Index remains low at 99.75, EURUSD is at 1.1345, GBPUSD at 1.3206, and USDJPY at 142.85.https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/commodities/whats-next-as-gold-hits-our-usd-3300-target-16042025

 
 Expectations for the ECB rate decision have shifted; we are at 93% for a 25 basis point cut and 7% for a 50 basis point cut. By year-end, traders are betting on 85 basis points of cuts. Next week, there will be many important earnings releases, but the outlooks—or lack thereof—will be more important than past performance.

To set the stage for the next few months, listen to our newest podcast: "The Great Bear Market of Our Generation in Store?" https://www.home.saxo/en-ch/content/articles/podcast/podcast-16-april-16042025

Today, we anticipate more market volatility due to the latest US-China trade friction and look ahead to the next key event risks on the geopolitical front, as US-Japan trade talks are set to get underway and with Italian PM Meloni in Washington. We also wonder whether the US equity market is shaping up for the greatest bear market in a generation, as market bailouts are likely no longer a major priority in Washington, among other reasons. Today's podcast is hosted by Saxo's Global Head of Macro Strategy, John J. Hardy. Jacob is doing his best to make sense of earnings: Equities Insights.

Trade safely!

Thursday, April 17, 2025

  • Japan Trade
  • ECB Rate Decision
  • US Initial Jobless Claims, Philly Fed
  • TSMC, Netflix, UnitedHealth Group, Huntington Bancshares, American Express, Regions Financial

Friday, April 18, 2025

  • Japan CPI

Monday, April 21, 2025

  • China Interest Rate

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Upending the global order at blinding speed

    Quarterly Outlook

    Upending the global order at blinding speed

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    We are witnessing a once-in-a-lifetime shredding of the global order. As the new order takes shape, ...
    Read full article
  • Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

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  • Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Quarterly Outlook

    Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

    Read full article
  • Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

    Read full article
  • Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    Read full article
  • Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Read full article
  • China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Quarterly Outlook

    China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Read full article
  • Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

    Read full article
  • FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    Read full article
  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

    Read full article

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Losses can exceed deposits on margin products. Please ensure you consult our Risk Warning before you start trading and you understand the risks.

All trading carries risk. Losses can exceed deposits on margin products. You should consider whether you understand how our products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a general Risk Warning series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. The KIDs can be accessed within the trading platform. Please note that the full prospectus can be obtained free of charge from Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or the issuer.

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