Saxo Weekly Market Compass
10 November 2025 (recap week of 3-7 Nov 2025)

Where markets have been — and where they’re heading.

Headlines & introduction

Tech falters, data delays keep investors cautious. Markets swung between optimism and concern as the prolonged US government shutdown delayed key economic data and raised doubts about the growth outlook. Early gains faded mid-week as the AI-driven rally lost steam, but sentiment steadied on Friday amid progress toward a budget deal and firmer bond markets. In Europe, corporate results drove mixed performances, while Asia found support from stronger tech names. Volatility remained contained, yet options activity showed investors staying alert to potential surprises.

Market pulse: Confidence is fragile, but markets remain orderly.

Equities

United States

AI fatigue drags on megacaps as defensives take the lead. US equities ended lower as enthusiasm for AI stocks cooled and investors questioned stretched valuations. The Nasdaq Composite fell around 3% for the week — its worst performance since April — with Nvidia (–3.7%) and AMD (–7.3%) retreating after cautious commentary on chip demand. Palantir (–6.8%) and Tesla (–3.5%) also slipped, while Microsoft (–2%) and Amazon (–2.9%) extended their pullbacks. Defensive sectors outperformed: Coca-Cola (+2.2%) and Berkshire Hathaway (+2.7%) drew buyers amid the turbulence. Economic indicators were mixed, with job cuts at their highest since 2003 and consumer sentiment near record lows, highlighting the toll of the shutdown. Treasury yields fluctuated around 4%, offering little relief.
Market pulse: The US market is reassessing the balance between AI optimism and slower macro momentum.

Local markets – Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark, France, UK, Switzerland & Asia

Europe shows pockets of strength as Asia stabilises. European equities delivered uneven results, with performance largely driven by earnings. In the Netherlands, ASML fell on renewed concerns over chip-export restrictions to China, while Belgium’s BEL 20 drifted lower amid weak consumer sentiment. Denmark outperformed thanks to Vestas Wind Systems, which rallied on a strong Q3 update and a new buy-back programme. Novo Nordisk slipped 4.5% after trimming its outlook, citing US pricing pressures. France’s CAC 40 held steady as strength in energy names offset weakness in luxury goods. In the UK, AstraZeneca (+3%) and BAE Systems gained, but Diageo (–6.5%) tumbled after cutting guidance. Switzerland’s SMI was flat as Nestlé and Roche disappointed.

In Asia, sentiment improved: Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 1.5%, South Korea’s KOSPI gained 1.2%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng added 2.1% as investors welcomed signs that China may ease restrictions on tech exports. Mainland markets, however, remained weighed down by soft trade data.
Market pulse: Europe’s strength is selective, while Asia’s rebound hinges on policy clarity and chip demand.

Volatility

Markets calm but still on edge. The VIX hovered near 19 throughout the week, rising briefly during the tech sell-off before easing again as progress on the US funding deal calmed nerves. Short-term measures spiked mid-week, reflecting demand for short-lived protection rather than panic. Options pricing suggests investors are bracing for moderate swings — around ±1.5% on the S&P 500 — rather than a major breakout.
Market pulse: Traders are hedging selectively, not fleeing risk.

Digital assets

Crypto steadies after a volatile start to November. Bitcoin and Ether stabilised after a sharp liquidation early in the week wiped out $1.3 billion in leveraged positions. Bitcoin briefly fell below $105,000 before recovering to around $106,000, while Ether held near $3,600. ETF flows turned positive again, with IBIT up 2.8% and ETHA up 4.8%. Solana continued to attract inflows, and Cipher Mining jumped 22% on news of a cloud-computing partnership. Still, sentiment remains closely tied to shifts in interest-rate expectations and the broader risk mood.
Market pulse: Crypto is regaining footing, but conviction remains thin.

Fixed income

Bond yields rise and fall with sentiment shifts. US Treasury yields rose early in the week on supply concerns and stronger services data but retreated as equities weakened. The 10-year finished near 4.09%, while the 2-year closed around 3.56%. High-yield spreads briefly widened toward 300 basis points before narrowing again. Japanese government bond yields climbed above 1.7%, marking the highest level since 2008.
Market pulse: Yields remain range-bound, caught between policy uncertainty and shifting growth expectations.

Commodities

Gold firm, energy mixed, and grains rebound. Oil prices fluctuated within a narrow range — Brent traded between $60 and $66 — as rising inventories offset OPEC+’s cautious tone on production. Natural gas rallied to $4.4, an eight-month high, supported by cold-weather forecasts. Gold held above $4,000, while silver tested $49.50, both benefiting from renewed hopes of a Fed rate cut later this year. In agriculture, wheat and soybeans advanced on stronger Chinese demand, while sugar and corn slipped.
Market pulse: Commodities remain steady, supported by selective demand and rate-cut speculation.

Currencies

Dollar steady, yen volatile, Aussie strong. The dollar index eased below 100 before rebounding, with EURUSD hovering between 1.15 and 1.16. The yen swung sharply between 152.8 and 154.0 amid talk of intervention by Japan’s Ministry of Finance. Sterling stabilised after the Bank of England held rates, while the Australian dollar stayed firm near multi-year highs against NZD and JPY on carry demand.
Market pulse: FX markets remain steady, awaiting direction from delayed macro data.

Key Takeaways

• US tech weakness led global equity rotation.
• Nordics outperformed; Belgium and France lagged.
• Volatility steady near 19; hedging moderate.
• Bitcoin and Ether stabilised after heavy liquidations.
• 10-year Treasury yields held near 4.1%; JGBs topped 1.7%.
• Gold resilient; natural gas and grains advanced.
• USD mixed; AUD strong on rate differentials.

Looking ahead (10-14 November 2025)

Earnings and events dominate a shortened week. With macro data still delayed by the shutdown, markets will focus on corporate earnings and company guidance. Key reports include CoreWeave (Monday), Sony (Tuesday), Cisco, Circle Internet Group, Flutter, and On Holding (Wednesday), Walt Disney, Applied Materials, Brookfield, and JD.com (Thursday), and Richemont (Friday). Bond markets close Tuesday for the Veterans Day holiday, which could limit liquidity, while equities trade as usual.

Attention also turns to AMD’s analyst day on Tuesday, where investors expect more detail on its AI strategy — a potential sentiment driver for the broader semiconductor sector. In Europe, results from Siemens and Deutsche Telekom will offer insight into industrial demand and telecom margins. In Asia, SoftBank and Hon Hai Precision earnings will help gauge regional AI investment trends, while China’s inflation and trade data will test confidence in the country’s recovery.
Market pulse: With most major earnings behind us and economic data flow still constrained, markets are likely to take their cues from macro signals — shutdown resolution progress, bond auctions, and inflation expectations.

Concluding remarks

The week ahead marks a turning point as markets slowly transition from macro paralysis back to micro fundamentals. With the US government finally nearing a reopening deal, investors can begin to refocus on economic data rather than politics. Yet, the picture remains delicate: AI valuations are being re-priced, rate-cut expectations are oscillating, and the next leg of market leadership is still unclear.

For long-term investors, the coming days will provide valuable clues about the durability of this year’s tech rally and whether defensive and value sectors can take the baton. Bond markets will continue to act as the temperature gauge for risk appetite — a sharp move in yields could quickly ripple through equities and currencies.

In Europe, energy transition plays such as Vestas and defence names like BAE Systems are emerging as regional standouts, while Asia’s improving tech momentum could add resilience to global risk sentiment.
Overall, the focus is shifting from survival to selection — from reacting to headlines to positioning for trends that will define 2026.