Market Quick Take – 2 September 2025

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Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: Europe edged higher on defence and healthcare; Asia firm with Hong Kong surging while onshore China advanced
• Volatility: VIX mid-teens, positioning risk, SPX ±30 expected
• Digital Assets: BTC ~110k, ETH strong inflows, ETFs diverge, SOL & XRP firm
• Fixed Income: Strong 10-year JGB auction keeps Japanese yields in check
• Currencies: USD firms, JPY weakens on lack of BoJ hawkishness
• Commodities: Silver surge drives gold to fresh record above USD 3500
• Macro events: Eurozone Aug CPI & US Aug ISM Manufacturing

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Macro headlines

Gold traded above USD 3,500 per ounce overnight briefly, a new record, posting a high of 3,508.7 before dropping back slightly. Silver prices rose sharply again yesterday and closed well clear of USD 40 per ounce for the first time since 2011.

An attack considered likely of Russian origin disrupted GPS services at a Bulgarian airport, requiring that the pilot of an airplane carrying European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen use paper maps to land the plane.

The RatingDog China General Manufacturing PMI climbed to 50.5, exceeding July's figure and the market forecast of 49.5, marking a high since March. Output grew with increased new orders and purchasing, while foreign demand declined less sharply. Despite rising backlogged work, firms cut staffing for the fifth consecutive month.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

0900 – Eurozone Flash Aug CPI
1330 – Canada Aug Manufacturing PMI
1400 – US Aug ISM Manufacturing, Prices Paid, New Orders, and Employment

Earnings events

Note: earnings announcement dates can change with little notice. Consult other sources to confirm earnings releases as they approach.

Earnings this week

Today: Alimentation Couche-Tard, ZScaler
Wed: Salesforce, Figma, Hewlett Packard, Dollar Tree,
Thu: Broadcom, Copart, Lululemon
Fri: Kroger

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• USA: U.S. equities were closed for Labor Day on Monday.
• Europe: Europe firmed as the Euro Stoxx 50 rose 0.3% to 5,367 and the Stoxx 600 added 0.2% to 551.4, while the FTSE 100 edged up 0.1%. Defence led after fresh security headlines and a UK-Norway frigate deal: Leonardo +4.5%, Rolls-Royce +2.8%, and Rheinmetall +3.8%. Healthcare advanced as Novo Nordisk gained 1.8% after Wegovy real-world data showed stronger heart protection versus Lilly’s therapies. Utilities lagged alongside higher long-dated euro-area yields, while investors looked ahead to France’s Sept 8 confidence vote.
• Asia: Hong Kong rallied, with the Hang Seng up 2.2% to 25,617, its biggest gain since August 13, as broad buying returned. Alibaba jumped 18.5% on renewed cloud optimism, while biopharma names outperformed: Innovent +8.8%, Wuxi Biologics +7.2%, Sino Biopharma +6.2%. Mainland China advanced for a third session as the Shanghai Composite rose 0.5%, aided by ample liquidity and improving PMI signals.

Digital Assets

• Bitcoin trades near $110k after dipping to a two-month low Monday, with investors monitoring whale wallet activity and ETF flows. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw renewed outflows, while Ethereum products continued to attract demand after a strong August. IBIT −3.4% and ETHA −2.3% mirrored these flows, highlighting profit-taking in crypto equities too. Ether holds around $4.3–4.4k, while altcoins are mixed: SOL +3.5%, XRP +2%. Traders eye Friday’s U.S. jobs report, with softer data likely cementing expectations of a Fed rate cut mid-September.

Volatility

• Volatility stayed moderate as U.S. markets are to reopen after the long weekend. The VIX rose to 16.1 while front-month futures traded near 17, showing some caution ahead of this week’s inflation data and the Fed’s September meeting. Option markets are still pricing in limited swings, but history suggests September often brings bigger moves. Positioning is notable: speculators hold one of the largest net short bets on VIX futures since 2022, which in the past preceded deeper market pullbacks. For today, options imply an expected ±30-point move on the SPX (~0.47%).

Fixed Income

• Japan’s 2 and 10-year government bond yields dipped overnight after trading near cycle- and multi-year highs again in recent days. An overnight auction of 10-year JGBs saw solid demand, although the benchmark 30-year JGB yield rose slightly to trade near 3.22%, within two basis points of the cycle high as the US treasuries begin trading again today after the three-day weekend. US yields at the longer end of the curve remain rangebound ahead of August labor market data this week and the August ISM Manufacturing report today and ISM Services report for August on Thursday.

Commodities

• Gold reached a fresh record overnight above USD 3500; the technical trigger being renewed momentum buying after months of sideways trading. The move was reinforced by silver’s surge above USD 40 to a 14-year high. Fundamentally, investment metals remain supported by the prospect of Federal Reserve rate cuts amid US stagflation risks, a weaker dollar, concerns over Fed independence, aggressive central bank demand, persistent inflation, and a general level of political and economic turmoil around the world.
• Platinum has also caught attention, with a break above USD 1400 potentially ending a week-long consolidation following strong gains earlier this year. The metal is up 60% year-to-date, outpacing silver’s 41% and gold’s 33%.
• Crude trades higher as US pressure on Russia to stop the war continues, focusing on curbing supply flows to India. Prices are further supported by short covering from heavily extended speculative positions in WTI and expectations that OPEC+, meeting on 7 September, will keep output unchanged.

Currencies

• The US dollar firmed slightly after trading near the recent lows against the euro, as EURUSD shied away from the local range high of 1.1740+ after testing this area yesterday, slipping back just below 1.1700 overnight in Asian trading hours.
• USDJPY remains embedded in the range of the last four weeks, with USDJPY rising sharply overnight after sub-147.00 levels yesterday to near session highs this morning at 147.85. The Japanese yen weakened broadly after Bank of Japan deputy governor failed to hint at rate hike timing in a speech overnight, noting tight labor markets and other risks to inflation, while noting concern about the potential disinflationary impacts from softer commodity prices and tariffs. EURJPY is threatening the range highs since late July, trading at 172.87 this morning.
• The Euro-Swedish krone exchange rate traded below EURSEK 11.00 briefly yesterday and overnight for the first time since mid-June after Sweden’s Manufacturing PMI hit 55.3 in August, the highest level in three years.

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