Market Quick Take – 28 July 2025

Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: US records streak; EU trade deal; big earnings ahead.
• Volatility: VIX drops; SPX expected move ±0.6% (Mon), ±1.3% (week)
• Digital assets: BTC near $119k; ETH above $3.9k; IBIT/ETHA dip slightly
• Fixed Income: JGB yields dip to start week. US treasuries await macro data later this week
• Currencies: USD sell-off overnight reverses. JPY very weak and GBP increasingly weak
• Commodities: Gold and silver have reversed the surge of early last week. Oil rangebound.
• Macro events: US Treasury to auction 2-year and 5-year notes.

Macro headlines

• US President Trump announced a deal with the EU involving a 15% tariff, with the EU agreeing to buy $750 billion in US energy, open all markets, purchase US military equipment, and make $600 billion in US investments. He claimed it's the biggest deal ever, benefiting cars and agriculture. Additionally, deals with three to four other countries are being explored, with confirmation letters expected soon.
• SCMP reported that China and the US will pause tariffs for another 90 days, ahead of talks in Stockholm today.
• China's trade surplus expanded to $114.77 billion in June 2025, surpassing last year's $98.94 billion and market expectations of $109 billion, as exports rose 5.8% year-on-year, beating the 5.0% forecast. Imports increased by 1.1%, slightly below the 1.3% expectation, but rebounded from May's 3.4% decline.
• The US reported Friday that US durable goods orders dropped 9.3% in June 2025 to $311.84 billion, reversing May's revised 16.5% increase and doing better than the expected 10.8% decline. Transport equipment orders fell the most (-22.4%), notably nondefense aircraft and parts (-51.8%) and nondefense capital goods (-24%).

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

• 1430 – US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity
• 1530 – US Treasury to auction 2-year notes
• 1700 – US Treasury to auction 5-year notes

Earnings events

Note: earnings announcement dates can change with little notice. Consult other sources to confirm earnings releases as they approach.

• Today: Cadence Design Systems
• Tuesday: Visa, Procter & Gamble, UnitedHealth, L’Oreal, AstraZeneca, Merck, Booking Holdings, Boeing, Spotify, Air Liquide, Starbucks, Rio Tinto, Mondelez, Royal Caribbean Cruises, UPS
• Wednesday: Microsoft, Meta, HSBC, Qualcomm, Airbus, Lam Research, Automatic Data Processing, UBS Group, Hermes, Trane Technologies, Robinhood Markets, BAE Systems, Ford
• Thursday: Apple, Amazon, Mastercard, AbbVie, Samsung Electronics, Shell, Schneider Electric, Safran, Ferrari, MercadoLibre, KLA Tencor, Microstrategy, Rolls Royce Holdings, The Southern Company, Coinbase, Tokyo Electron, Roblox, Cloudflare, BMW, Mercedes Benz,
• Friday: ExxonMobil, Chevron, Linde, Nintendo

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• US: US equities ended Friday higher, with the S&P 500 up 0.4%, marking a fifth consecutive record close—the longest streak in over a year. The Dow Jones gained 208 points, while the Nasdaq 100 added 0.2% after an intraday high. Optimism grew as President Trump reached a framework trade deal with EU leaders, cutting tariffs to 15% from the threatened 30%. Strong earnings from Alphabet and Verizon buoyed sentiment, while Intel weighed on tech after warning of losses and layoffs. Attention now shifts to this week’s Fed meeting, a heavy earnings calendar featuring Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta, and key inflation and jobs data.
• Europe: European stocks closed mostly lower Friday as investors assessed earnings and awaited trade news. The STOXX 600 fell 0.3%, dragged down by industrials and healthcare, while the CAC 40 rose 0.2%, helped by strong LVMH (+3.9%) results. Volkswagen also climbed 4% after reporting robust demand despite a cautious outlook. Barclays analysts noted that the agreed 15% US tariff might already be reflected in earnings forecasts, particularly for autos, luxury goods, and construction materials. The finalized US-EU trade deal announced Sunday eased fears of a broader trade war.
• UK: The FTSE 100 slipped 0.2% Friday, breaking a six-day winning streak after weaker UK retail data. June sales rose 0.9%, missing forecasts, and consumer sentiment softened on concerns over potential autumn tax hikes. NatWest gained nearly 2.5% after lifting its income outlook and announcing a £750m buyback, while Rightmove fell over 2% despite solid results, warning of slower H2 growth. UK futures rose 0.5% Monday morning as investors awaited updates from GSK and several mid-cap earnings.
• Asia: Asian markets opened mixed Monday. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rebounded 0.8%, supported by optimism over the US-EU trade deal and hopes for a three-month extension to the US-China tariff truce. Gains came despite China’s industrial profits falling 1.8% in H1. Samsung surged 5.8% in Korea on a major chip supply deal with Tesla, while Japan’s Nikkei dropped 1% ahead of the Bank of Japan’s Thursday policy decision. Investors await the Politburo meeting in China and official July PMI data later this week.

Volatility

Volatility eased Friday as the VIX fell to 14.93 (-2.99%), with ultra-short gauges showing even calmer conditions (VIX1D 8.9, VIX9D 12.8). The term structure remains upward-sloping, with August VIX futures around 17.4, implying only moderate hedging demand. SPX options imply an expected ±$41 (0.6%) move for Monday and ±$81 (1.3%) for the week, meaning any outsized swings would be surprising. Despite the calm, the packed earnings calendar and Fed meeting midweek could inject fresh volatility.

Digital Assets

Crypto markets started the week firm, with Bitcoin near $119,500 and Ether at $3,930. IBIT closed Friday at $66.36 (-1.9%), just below recent highs, while ETHA ended at $27.58 (-2.8%). Solana (+2.9%) and XRP (+2.5%) led altcoin gains. ETFs continue to see steady inflows as investors selectively add exposure on dips, supported by easing macro risks and trade progress. MicroStrategy (-2.2%) and Coinbase (-1.3%) declined slightly, mirroring profit-taking in crypto-related equities.

Fixed Income

• The US Treasury will auction 2-year and 5-year notes today on a key week for macro, as the US FOMC will announce the Fed’s policy rate this Wednesday (no change expected as the market looks for guidance on future meetings) and Friday sees the release of the July US jobs report. The 2-year yield has pushed to the upper part of the range toward 3.96%, trading 3.93%.The focus at the long end of the US yield curve has eased a bit as yields remain rangebound, with the 30-year US t-bond benchmark at 4.94% after the brief push above the 5.00% level the week before last.
• After hitting a more than 15-year high last week above 1.60%, 10-year Japanese Government Bond yields dipped to start this week, down over 5 basis points to 1.56%. The longest Japanese yields failed to confirm that 10-year move higher last week, and 30-year JGB yields hit a new two-year low overnight trading 3.03% after the peak the week before last of 3.22%

Commodities

• Gold prices remain on the defensive after the rally early last week above USD 3,400 / troy ounce reversed, which has the precious metal back closer to the two-week low near 3,309, though the 3,250 area is more critical structural chart support. Silver corrected sharply on Friday, taking it back as low as USD 38 per troy ounce before rebounding toward 38.30 today. This is a disappointment for the bulls after a surge last week above the prior, almost 14-year high of 39.13, posting a 39.53 high before reversing.
• The major oil benchmarks are frozen in tight ranges as Brent trades near USD 69 per barrel and WTI near 65.50, needing to build a directional move of at least three dollars in either direction to merit attention from traders.

Currencies

• The JPY remains very weak as global risk sentiment remains firm and was boosted further overnight by the news of the US-EU trade deal.
• The US dollar is generally firmer after a bout of weakness last week, although the strong Euro has kept the dollar index relatively subdued. Sterling firmed slightly overnight after a extended weakness last week, with EURGBP hitting its highest level since late 2023 overnight before retracing most of that move.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.