Outrageous Predictions
Executive Summary: Outrageous Predictions 2026
Saxo Group
Investing in different funds, like mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs), comes with costs, some of which are not immediately visible. Expense ratios, expressed as an annual percentage of a fund's assets, are typically accrued over time and reflected in the fund's Net Asset Value (NAV), reducing investment returns indirectly.
A higher expense ratio means a greater portion of your returns is absorbed by fund costs each year. Over time, these costs compound, significantly affecting long-term wealth accumulation.
Expense ratios may seem minor, but they significantly impact long-term investment returns. Unlike transaction fees, which occur per trade, expense ratios are deducted periodically from the fund's assets, reducing overall returns without direct investor intervention.
A fund with a high expense ratio (e.g., 1%) erodes returns even in years when performance is weak. Because these costs compound, they create a growing gap between what an investor could have earned in a lower-cost fund (e.g., 0.2%) versus a high-cost alternative.
For example, assume a USD 100,000 investment grows at 7% annually (before fees) for 30 years, with fees reducing the annual return by the expense ratio and excluding taxes and other costs:
The difference—nearly USD 146,000 in this simplified example—demonstrates how higher fees can reduce long-term investment outcomes over time.
Expense ratios are deducted automatically at the fund level. This means investors never see a direct charge or invoice for these costs. Instead, fees are typically accrued over time and reflected in the fund’s NAV.
Even if a fund generates strong returns, a high expense ratio reduces net returns, which can affect long-term wealth accumulation. Over decades, even small percentage differences can translate into substantial lost gains.
Expense ratios cover a fund's ongoing operational costs. These costs vary depending on whether the fund is actively or passively managed.
Key components of an expense ratio:
Actively managed funds usually have higher expense ratios due to frequent trading, research, and portfolio oversight, while passive funds, including index ETFs & index mutual funds, often have lower expense ratios because they track a market index with minimal intervention. Ranges vary by region, fund category, provider and share class.
Expense ratios vary depending on the type of fund, its management style, and the complexity of its investment strategy. The ranges below are illustrative and vary by region, provider, fund structure and share class.
Some funds temporarily waive a portion of their fees to attract investors. The gross expense ratio reflects total fees before waivers, while the net expense ratio shows what investors actually pay after discounts. Always check how long waivers last to assess long-term costs.
A high expense ratio does not always mean poor value. In some cases, funds justify higher costs by delivering superior risk-adjusted returns, unique investment strategies, or access to specialised markets.
Here are a few cases when higher expense ratios might be justified:
Some actively managed funds have a track record of beating their benchmarks net of fees, though not all sustain this long term.
Funds investing in emerging markets, small-cap stocks, or alternative assets often have higher fees due to greater research and transaction costs.
Due to complex risk management and unique investment approaches, hedge funds, private equity, and tactical asset allocation funds charge higher fees. However, these fees should be assessed based on risk-adjusted return metrics, such as the Sharpe ratio and Sortino ratio, rather than just absolute returns.
Comparing expense ratios across similar funds can help investors assess costs alongside performance, risk, strategy and fund structure. A slight difference in fees can translate into significant savings over time, depending on the amount invested, holding period, returns and other costs.
Here are a few practical steps to follow:
Use an expense ratio calculator to estimate how fees reduce investment growth over time. Ensure the calculation accounts for compounding returns and investment horizon.
Compare fees against both category averages and low-cost alternatives (e.g., index funds). For example, if an actively managed US large-cap equity fund charges 1.2%, while a passive S&P 500 ETF costs 0.03%, investors can compare whether the 1.17% difference is justified by the fund’s strategy, risk profile and performance after fees.
The net expense ratio reflects what investors actually pay after fee waivers.
Funds with higher fees would typically need to justify their cost through sustained, long-term, risk-adjusted outperformance. Use metrics like the Sharpe ratio and Sortino ratio to assess if returns compensate for higher fees.
Red flags to watch out for:
Even minor differences in expense ratios can lead to meaningful differences in long-term investment outcomes. While some fees may be unavoidable, investors can take steps to reduce their impact and keep more of any returns after costs.
Index funds and ETFs are among the most cost-efficient investment vehicles available. Unlike actively managed funds, which require teams of analysts and frequent trading, index funds simply track a benchmark, keeping costs low.
For example, broad-market ETFs, such as an S&P 500 tracker, can have very low expense ratios, while actively managed mutual funds often charge higher fees, with some specialised funds charging even more. Over time, these cost differences can potentially translate into meaningful savings, depending on the amount invested, returns and holding period.
Some mutual funds include marketing and distribution fees—known as 12b-1 fees—that add to overall costs without improving performance. These fees are embedded within the expense ratio and can be as high as 1%.
Investors can review a fund's prospectus to understand its fees and assess whether administrative or marketing costs are justified. Many investment platforms offer no-load or lower-cost mutual funds, although availability and costs vary by provider and market.
Brokerage and investment platforms sometimes impose additional fees beyond a fund's expense ratio. These can include account maintenance fees, platform fees, or transaction costs.
Consolidating investments with a single provider may reduce certain fees, especially when pricing depends on portfolio size, but it can also reduce provider diversification. Many brokerages offer low commissions or account maintenance fees, although other costs may still apply.
For investors with larger portfolios, direct indexing provides an alternative to ETFs and mutual funds by allowing them to purchase individual stocks that make up an index. This can reduce or avoid fund expense ratios while still providing market exposure, but it introduces other costs and considerations.
While direct indexing requires more active management and may involve trading commissions, the long-term cost savings can be significant, especially for high-net-worth investors.
Expense ratios may initially seem insignificant, but their long-term impact on portfolio performance can be significant. These fees are deducted automatically, reducing investment returns year after year. Even a small percentage difference can compound into a substantial difference in outcomes over decades.
Investors who compare fees, review charges, and consider cost-efficient alternatives may improve long-term net outcomes, depending on performance, risk and suitability. A fund with a high expense ratio would typically need to deliver stronger risk-adjusted returns after fees to justify the extra cost. If not, lower-cost alternatives may provide similar market exposure with lower ongoing costs.
Overall, minimising costs is one of the few aspects of investing entirely within your control. Keeping fees low can leave more of any returns invested over time, although outcomes still depend on market performance, taxes and product choice.