Outrageous Predictions
Executive Summary: Outrageous Predictions 2026
Saxo Group
Note: Investing involves risk. The value of investments can go down as well as up, and you may lose money. Retirement income and withdrawals are not guaranteed.
Retirement can change how money decisions are made. Income may come from pensions, savings, investments or other assets, and decisions about withdrawals and risk can have long-term consequences. The challenge is to manage savings while recognising that volatility and inflation can affect their value.
Some retirees continue investing during retirement to balance income needs with inflation and longevity risk. This may involve keeping part of a portfolio focused on liquidity and withdrawals, while another part remains invested for longer-term growth. The right balance depends on income sources, spending needs, risk tolerance, and how long the portfolio may need to last.
After retirement, many investors shift from accumulating wealth to managing withdrawals, risk and liquidity. The focus is usually less on aggressive growth and more on managing income needs, withdrawals and risk. Markets can still affect retirement outcomes, but income stability, liquidity and risk management often become more important than short-term performance.
The main challenge is balancing cash, which can lose purchasing power to inflation, with market exposure, which can fall in value during downturns. Retirement investing may keep part of your money allocated to income-generating and growth assets while maintaining reserves for flexibility and risk management.
During these years, portfolio decisions often focus on income needs, liquidity, inflation risk and avoiding unnecessary concentration or speculative exposure.
Once employment income stops or falls, savings and investments may need to support withdrawals and provide flexibility. That’s why the aim is often to balance income needs, liquidity and investment risk.
Common planning steps include:
Identify which costs must always be covered (housing, food and healthcare) and which can be adjusted, like travel or leisure. This distinction can help show how much spending needs reliable funding and how much may be adjusted if markets or personal circumstances change.
Include pensions, annuities, dividends, and any part-time earnings. Knowing when each source begins and how it may be taxed can help you plan your withdrawals, subject to local rules and personal circumstances.
Risk tolerance reflects how much market movement feels manageable, while capacity for loss reflects how much decline your plan can withstand. Both can affect the balance between equities, bonds, cash and other assets.
Some retirees keep cash or short-term assets readily accessible to cover near-term spending, with the amount depending on guaranteed income, spending flexibility, and portfolio size. This may reduce the need to sell growth assets during market downturns, although it can also reduce your growth potential.
If cash becomes available from a lump-sum pension or asset sale, one option is to phase purchases over time rather than invest the full amount immediately. This may reduce reliance on a single entry point, but it does not guarantee a better outcome.
Retirement investing may be easier to manage when each part of your portfolio has a purpose.
Once you retire, the aim may be to support income, manage capital risk and address inflation risk.
A retirement portfolio may include a mix of the following, depending on objectives, risk tolerance, income needs and local product availability:
Dividend-paying companies and equity income funds may provide income exposure while retaining some growth potential, but dividends can be cut and equity values can fall. Funds focused on dividend policies and company quality should still be reviewed for concentration, fees, valuation and sector exposure.
Blended bond exposure may include short-, medium- and longer-term bonds, depending on income needs and sensitivity to interest rates. Bonds can support more predictable income than equities in some portfolios, but their prices can still fall, and returns are affected by interest-rate, credit, inflation and currency risks.
To help address rising prices, some investors allocate part of their fixed-income holdings to instruments that adjust with inflation or interest-rate movements. These assets may help mitigate inflation or rate risks, but values, payouts, and real returns can still vary.
Retirees need liquidity for emergencies and upcoming spending. Savings accounts, notice deposits or short-term certificates may help cover near-term expenses and reduce the need to sell investments during downturns, subject to inflation, access terms, rates and local deposit-protection limits.
Some retirees also research assets such as listed infrastructure, REITs, utilities or infrastructure debt. These may behave differently from traditional bonds and equities, but they can still be affected by interest rates, regulation, leverage, market sentiment, credit risk and liquidity risk. Income and capital values are not guaranteed.
Once the asset mix has been considered, the next question is how withdrawals may be supported through retirement.
Common approaches include:
This strategy aims to cover essential living expenses with more predictable sources such as pensions, annuities or government benefits. Features, indexation, fees, guarantees and provider or policy risks vary by country and product. Other assets may then remain invested for longer-term needs or growth, creating a clearer distinction between essential income and flexible assets.
Your assets are divided into short-, medium-, and long-term ‘buckets’. Short-term funds often cover near-term spending through cash or short-term bonds. Medium-term assets, like balanced funds, may provide a bridge for later spending needs, although their values can still fluctuate. Longer-term holdings, such as equities, may aim to support purchasing power over time, but their value can fall and outcomes are not guaranteed.
Instead of relying solely on income-producing investments, this method treats your portfolio as a unified whole. Withdrawals are usually based on a planned percentage or amount, sometimes adjusted for inflation, while the portfolio is reviewed and rebalanced periodically. This approach may provide flexibility across market cycles and reduce reliance on high-yield assets, but it still requires decisions about cash reserves, rebalancing and how withdrawals are adjusted after market falls.
Even after years of saving, managing your wealth in retirement requires ongoing attention because minor missteps can shorten your portfolio’s life or disrupt your income plan.
Common issues include:
Selling assets during short-term downturns can crystallise losses and may affect long-term outcomes. Some retirees keep cash or lower-volatility assets available for withdrawals to reduce reliance on selling growth investments during downturns.
Retirement can span decades. A portfolio that made sense at age 65 might not fit your needs at 75. Periodic reviews can help assess whether the balance between growth, income and liquidity still matches your circumstances.
Without a clear order for withdrawals, future flexibility may be affected. The accounts used for income may be reviewed alongside the broader plan.
Early retirement may seem comfortable, but moderate inflation can erode your spending power over time. Budget assumptions may need to be reviewed over time, and some growth exposure may help address rising costs, while recognising that investment values can fall.
Investing in retirement is usually about balancing income needs, liquidity, inflation risk and the possibility of market losses. A portfolio may include cash, bonds, equities or other assets, but the mix should be reviewed against your spending needs, risk tolerance, and how long the money may need to last.
A less speculative approach may help you manage some risks during retirement, but it cannot remove uncertainty altogether. Withdrawals, market performance, inflation, and fees can all affect whether your plan remains sustainable over time.