Outrageous Predictions
Executive Summary: Outrageous Predictions 2026
Saxo Group
Note: Investing involves risk. The value of investments can go down as well as up, and you may lose money.
Investing may help people work towards long-term financial goals, but returns are not guaranteed and losses are possible. Long-term outcomes depend on many factors, including market conditions, costs, time horizon, risk tolerance and investor behaviour.
While no set of habits can guarantee success, some behaviours are commonly associated with a more disciplined approach to investing. The five traits below can help investors review how they make decisions, manage risk and stay focused on long-term objectives:
A long-term investing approach starts with deciding whether investing is appropriate for your goals, time horizon and risk tolerance. However, once invested, many people find it challenging to stay disciplined when markets become volatile.
Rather than making frequent changes in response to short-term market moves, disciplined investors often review whether their allocation still fits their plan. If it does, they may choose to remain invested; if their circumstances or risk tolerance have changed, adjustments may be appropriate.
Over time, many investors learn that trying to time the market is difficult and trying to time it carry risks. Strong market days can occur near periods of stress, so selling during periods of high volatility may make it harder to participate in any subsequent recovery.
Staying focused on a long-term plan may reduce the risk of emotion-led decisions, although outcomes are not guaranteed. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Long-term investing usually involves more than selecting a few shares based on informal tips or short-term views. A diversified portfolio may include a range of assets across sectors, geographies and investment styles.
Diversification is important. While it doesn’t guarantee gains or prevent losses, it may help manage concentration risk by spreading investments. In a diversified portfolio, different holdings may respond differently to market conditions, which can help manage overall volatility in some periods, but this is not guaranteed.
Some investors use a core-satellite approach, with broad-market exposure as the core and smaller allocations to more specialised areas such as international equities, emerging markets or small-cap stocks. These satellite areas can carry higher volatility and may not suit all investors.
Saxo’s platform screener can be used to research ETFs, including costs, holdings, risk indicators and market exposure.
Broad market ETFs, such as those tracking indices including MSCI ACWI, S&P 500 or MSCI Europe, depending on availability, costs, currency exposure and suitability for the investor’s objectives.
Bond ETFs, such as global government bond or global corporate bond ETFs, while noting that bond ETFs can fall in value and are affected by interest rates, credit risk and currency exposure.
International, sector-specific, and thematic ETFs may provide more targeted exposure, but they can be concentrated, volatile, and more sensitive to regional, sector-specific, or theme-specific risks.
Sector-specific ETFs (e.g., tech, healthcare, clean energy)
Thematic ETFs (e.g., small-cap, AI, ESG)
For investors who do not invest a large sum upfront, regular contributions may help build exposure over time.
Many long-term investors invest regularly, adding to their portfolios over time to benefit from potential compounding. Regular investing means allocating money to investments on a consistent basis, such as monthly or quarterly. The amount and frequency can vary depending on your financial situation, goals, costs and risk tolerance.
Some investors use automated transfers from a bank account to an investment account to support regular contributions. Alternatively, tools such as Saxo AutoInvest, a monthly ETF savings plan available in some markets, can automate recurring ETF investments, subject to product availability, costs and investment risk.
Investing is usually better assessed over longer time horizons, because markets can fluctuate significantly in the short term.
Many long-term investors focus on whether their holdings remain aligned with their goals, risk tolerance and investment case rather than reacting to every short-term market move. They recognise that markets fluctuate and may avoid making immediate decisions based only on short-term market stress. A clear goal and planned asset allocation may help them review decisions more consistently during downturns. The objective remains their focus, and they review their plan over time.
Investing may play an important role in long-term financial planning. Whether the goal is to retire comfortably, build wealth, or help keep up with rising costs, long-term investing may be one way to work towards those objectives.
Long-term investing is often easier to sustain when it fits within a broader approach to personal finances. Consistent investing requires having funds available after covering essential expenses, which means maintaining financial order.
Living within one’s means may reduce the risk of needing to liquidate investments at the wrong time to cover unexpected expenses or liabilities. It’s not necessarily about being frugal; rather it’s about understanding what one can afford and making intentional, rather than impulsive, spending decisions.
A useful starting point is to understand your total spending and the distinction between essential and non-essential expenses. Some investors aim to save and invest a fixed portion of their income, depending on affordability and financial goals. Then, reducing non-essential expenses may create more room for long-term financial goals, where this is realistic.
Long-term investing is influenced by discipline, planning, costs, market conditions and risk management. Disciplined habits may help you work towards your long-term goals, although portfolio values can fluctuate and losses are possible.
The traits above can serve as a framework for reviewing your investment behaviour and financial habits. Not every trait will apply to every investor, and any changes should reflect your personal goals, risk tolerance and financial circumstances. However, when used carefully, these habits may support a more disciplined approach to investing.
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