Outrageous Predictions
Executive Summary: Outrageous Predictions 2026
Saxo Group
As investors approach retirement or seek to supplement their income, the focus often shifts from capital appreciation to generating cash flow, while recognising that income payments and capital values can fluctuate. ETFs can be used in several ways to seek income streams while still offering fund-level diversification, but income, capital values, costs and tax treatment vary by product.
Note: Income-focused ETFs still involve investment risk. Distributions are not guaranteed, and ETF prices can fall as well as rise.
Dividend ETFs focus on companies with a history of paying dividends or increasing dividends over time. These ETFs may provide regular distributions while maintaining exposure to equity-market risk.
Types of dividend ETFs:
Illustrative example:
Investing EUR 100,000 in a dividend ETF yielding 4% at a point in time would imply about EUR 4,000 a year in distributions before taxes and costs, but yields and distributions vary and are not guaranteed. Compared with holding a single dividend stock, an ETF can provide exposure to multiple dividend-paying companies, depending on the fund’s holdings and concentration.
Bond ETFs hold portfolios of bonds and may provide regular distributions, such as monthly or quarterly payments, depending on the ETF.
Key bond ETF categories for income:
Real-world example:
An investor seeking monthly income might review a bond ETF that distributes income each month. Unlike individual bonds, which often pay coupons on a set schedule, some bond ETFs may provide more frequent distributions by holding a portfolio of bonds with different payment dates, although income and capital values can still fluctuate.
REIT ETFs invest in companies that own, operate, or finance real estate across sectors such as residential, commercial, healthcare, and data centres.
Distribution characteristics:
In some jurisdictions, such as the US, REITs regimes require high payout levels, often around 90% of taxable income. This can support distributions, but yields vary, and REIT prices can be sensitive to interest rates, property values and financing conditions.
Real-world example:
An investor seeking exposure to real estate without direct property ownership might review a REIT ETF, but historical yields vary by period, market and fund. Distributions may be linked to rental income, property cash flows or financing activity, but they are not guaranteed, and the ETF’s market price can fall.
Preferred stock ETFs invest in preferred shares, which combine characteristics of both stocks and bonds and may offer higher yields than some common stocks or investment-grade bonds.
Distribution characteristics:
Preferred shares often have priority over common dividends and may pay fixed or fixed-to-floating distributions, but payments can be suspended, and terms vary.
Real-world example:
An income-focused investor might consider a preferred stock ETF as a higher-risk income allocation, but yield levels vary, and preferred securities can be sensitive to interest rates, credit risk, and issuer-specific stress.
As an illustrative framework for investors reviewing income exposure, one approach could be:
Allocations depend on objectives, risk tolerance, time horizon, tax position, liquidity needs and other income sources.
Practical considerations:
Combining different types of income-focused ETFs may help you build diversified income exposure, but regular cash flow, capital preservation, growth and inflation protection are not guaranteed.