Outrageous Predictions
Executive Summary: Outrageous Predictions 2026
Saxo Group
Market downturns can stir anxiety, but they may also be a useful moment to review your investment approach. When equity markets fall, it’s not automatically a signal to exit or change strategy. A sell-off can be a time to review your portfolio’s structure, consider your emotional response, and check whether your investments still align with your long-term objectives.
This guide outlines practical investment principles that may help you review your portfolio and avoid reactive decisions during periods of volatility.
Note: Investments can fall as well as rise, and you may get back less than you invest.
Market volatility is part and parcel of investing. It can be tempting to respond emotionally when your portfolio loses value — but decisions driven by fear may undermine long-term planning.
Useful points to keep in mind:
Before making any changes, it can be useful to revisit your financial goals, time horizon and risk profile.
During sharp market moves, portfolios can drift away from their original allocations. Some sectors or asset classes may become overweight, while others may fall below their target allocation. Rebalancing could help you restore alignment with your intended risk profile, but whether it is appropriate depends on your objectives, costs, and tax considerations.
Review points may include:
If you’ve built up cash reserves, a pullback may be a time to assess whether gradual investment remains aligned with your plan, risk tolerance and objectives.
Diversification is a widely recognised investment principle, but it has limits and does not eliminate the risk of loss. It works best when a portfolio is spread across holdings that are not all exposed to the same risks or likely to move in the same direction at the same time.
Broad diversification:
Correlation matters:
Simply owning multiple shares or funds isn’t enough if they’re all exposed to the same risks. For instance, a portfolio of several tech or banking stocks may still move in lockstep during a downturn.
Diversified portfolios often include exposure to:
Be mindful of home bias:
Many investors instinctively favour domestic equities — but this can increase exposure to country-specific risks. A globally diversified portfolio may give access to varied economic cycles and broaden potential sources of return, but it can also introduce currency, political and market risks.
Think in terms of time horizon:
Investors with longer time horizons may be able to tolerate more equity exposure, which has historically provided higher long-term returns, but this depends on individual circumstances and past performance is not a reliable guide to future returns. As investors approach retirement, some consider increasing allocations to bonds or other lower-volatility assets to help manage volatility, although these assets can still fall in value.
Market downturns may reflect a mix of investor emotion, changing fundamentals and wider economic conditions. During periods of heavy selling, some well-managed companies may become undervalued, but valuation is uncertain and losses can continue.
Review points may include:
Sell-offs may create pricing dislocations, but identifying value is uncertain and requires careful analysis.
Across market cycles, these principles may help you review decisions more carefully when prices fall:
These principles do not change with the headlines — they are commonly used in long-term investment planning.
A market correction does not automatically mean a strategy should change. It can, however, be a useful prompt for reviewing whether your portfolio’s structure, risk exposure, diversification, and time horizon still align with your financial goals.
Staying grounded, reviewing diversification and assessing both opportunities and risks may help you make more considered decisions during periods of high volatility. This does not prevent losses or guarantee better outcomes, but it can reduce the risk of making reactive changes based only on short-term market moves.