Morning Brew September 24 2026

Good morning.

Risk sentiment took a severe beating yesterday as oil rose on the lack of positive news from the Iranian president’s speech, while a massive beat in the PMIs revived rate fears.

Yields rose globally, with the U.S. 10-year breaking above 5% again. The European benchmark is above 3.5%, the UK is at 5.35%, Japan at 3.07% and Switzerland at 0.56%. A second U.S. rate hike this year is now all but certain

This weighed on equities and pulled the U.S. dollar higher. U.S. equities fell sharply: the S&P 500 slid 0.8% to 7,706, the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.1% to 26,936—retreating from an all-time high—and the Dow fell 0.7% to 51,512. Energy was the only sector to close in the green. Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg unveiled a small handheld gadget called Meta Charm for use with the company’s new Muse AI assistant, taking its hardware efforts beyond its successful smart glasses.

European equities also fell on Wednesday as Brent crude’s return above USD 100 per barrel and rising bond yields outweighed better-than-expected PMI data. The Stoxx 600 dropped 0.4% to 639.92, the DAX fell 0.7% to 25,411, and the FTSE 100 was broadly flat at 10,705. Allianz was the largest drag on the Stoxx 600, declining 4.0%, while insurance and autos were the worst-performing sectors. Classifieds and telecom stocks sold off on AI-disruption fears following new agentic AI tool releases from Meta and others, with Scout24 falling 5.2%, Rightmove 2.5% and Telefónica 2.3%.

Brent is trading above USD 100 again, with U.S. crude above USD 90.

The USD Index rose to 101.05 as EUR/USD fell below 1.14. GBP/USD is at 1.3240 and USD/JPY is near 158. Gold and silver fell to 4,290 and 64.20, respectively, while Bitcoin is at 84,200. Gold and silver are once again trading around their 50-day moving averages.

U.S. business activity accelerated sharply in September, with the Composite PMI reaching a five-year high as both services and manufacturing exceeded expectations, supported by strong domestic demand, rising orders and robust hiring. Germany’s economy also gained momentum, with its Composite PMI hitting an 11-month high, although higher fuel and transport costs increased inflation pressures. The U.S. figures reinforced expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes.

U.S. President Donald Trump welcomes Chinese President Xi Jinping to the White House on Thursday for a state summit expected to be heavy on symbolism but light on substance. According to Reuters, the main outcomes are likely to be an extension of the trade truce expiring in November and an agreement to examine the threats posed by artificial intelligence.

The world’s leading artificial-intelligence companies warned the United Nations Security Council on Wednesday about the risks AI poses to humanity, appealing for governments to work together to manage the increasingly powerful technology.

Today, the main focus will be on yields. The Trump–Xi summit could bring surprises, although the potential appears skewed more to the downside.

The SNB rate decision at 9:30isclear, with markets assigning a 95% probability to no change. However, the probability of a hike in December is now above 50%—that is the number to watch. USD/CHF is heading into the release at 0.8420, while EUR/CHF is at 0.9380.

Trade safely.

Thursday, 24 September 2026
Macro: Germany Ifo business climate; France business confidence; U.S. initial jobless claims and new home sales.
Central banks: Swiss National Bank rate decision.
Politics: Reported Trump–Xi meeting.

Friday, 25 September 2026
Macro: Germany GfK consumer confidence; France consumer confidence; Spain final Q2 GDP; euro-area M3 money supply and private