Morning Bew August 7 2026

Good morning.

Markets are starting the day in a holding pattern. Today’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls, Berkshire Hathaway’s earnings tomorrow and U.S. inflation next week are the main scheduled events, while the Middle East remains the key geopolitical risk. At the same time, more traders are shifting their attention back to commodities, where energy, precious metals and agricultural supply risks are all becoming harder to ignore.

At 14:30 CET, we get the U.S. employment report. Consensus is for around 80,000 new jobs, with the unemployment rate expected at 4.2% and average hourly earnings at 3.5% year-on-year. Unless today’s number is a real outlier, this may not be the decisive payrolls report for the Fed. There will still be one more payrolls release before the next Fed rate decision also the Jackson Hole Summit and key inflation data  

That makes payrolls the key scheduled event of the day, unless the Middle East delivers another headline shock.

Going into the session, U.S. 10-year yields are around 4.68%, the USD Index is close to 99.95, and the probability of a September move remains below 60%.

In FX, EUR/USD is trading around 1.1525, cable near 1.3450 and USD/JPY has moved to around 158.30. Gold and silver remain firm at roughly 4,265 and 62.30, while oil is higher near 78.30 on a lack of progress in the Middle East. Bitcoin is trading around 64,000.

Equity futures are calm for now, with the US 500 around 7,710, the US Tech 100 near 29,430 and the GER40 close to 26,175.

Yesterday, Wall Street was softer The S&P 500 fell 0.2% to 7,709.96 for a second consecutive session of losses, moving further away from Tuesday’s all-time closing high. The Dow dropped almost 500 points, or around 0.9%, while the Nasdaq 100 declined 0.4%. Fiserv slumped after cutting its full-year profit outlook, while Hertz surged 29% on earnings day. Memory names Sandisk and Western Digital came under pressure after weak results. After the close, Airbnb rose around 8% after raising its annual revenue forecast, while Atlassian rallied on a strong revenue beat. AppLovin, by contrast, fell sharply after a weaker-than-expected EBITDA outlook.

Europe was also in wait-and-see mode ahead of the U.S. payrolls report. Geopolitical risk from the Middle East and lingering rate concerns kept sentiment cautious, while equity-index futures pointed to modest declines across the region heading into Friday. The MSCI World Index shed 0.2% on Thursday.

The Trump administration imposed price floors and a 15% tariff on polysilicon products used in semiconductors and solar panels under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, aiming to protect U.S. polysilicon producers from rising Chinese competition in the chip supply chain. Trump also signed two executive orders in a renewed but narrower attempt to curtail birthright citizenship, again challenging a constitutional provision after his previous effort was rejected by the Supreme Court.

China’s exports beat expectations in July, helped by continued demand for high-tech goods linked to the global AI infrastructure buildout. This keeps exports as an important support for Chinese growth, even as domestic demand remains uneven.

The Middle East remains the main headline risk. Yemen’s Houthis attacked southern Saudi Arabia, wounding 11 civilians, while Saudi Arabia warned that coordinated attacks by the Houthis and Iran-backed Iraqi militias may be imminent. For markets, that keeps energy, shipping routes and inflation expectations highly sensitive to every new headline.

Commodities deserve attention. The Strait of Hormuz remains a risk point, Europe’s heatwave is putting harvests under pressure, cobalt and copper concentrate exports are in focus, the Houthis continue to threaten transport in the Red Sea and Russian drones have reportedly attacked a German vessel in the Black Sea. In other words, this is no longer just an oil story. It is a broader supply-chain, inflation and commodity-risk story. I am very happy Ole is back next week to give his take

Friday, August 7, 2026
Macro: U.S. Employment Situation report for July, including nonfarm payrolls, the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings; U.S. consumer credit later in the day.
Central banks / speakers: Thomas Barkin speaks.
Corporate earnings: Vistra, Take-Two Interactive, PPL, Plains All American Pipeline, Emera, Fluor and Hawaiian Electric.

Saturday August 8
Corporate earnings:  Berkshire Hathaway