Market Quick Take - Nvidia stumble weighs on sentiment - 12 November 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

• Macro: US dollar strength on jump in Fed hike anticipation, Likely Nvidia CEO exit top the agenda
• Equities: US and European stocks rebounded on renewed AI optimism, but Nvidia’s leadership turmoil unsettled US futures and Asian markets.
• Volatility: Volatility eased across the curve, but Nvidia's turmoil revived demand for near-term protection overnight
• Digital Assets: Bitcoin stayed under pressure as ETF outflows continued
• Commodities: Oil and gold weaken as rising Middle East output and hawkish Fed expectations weigh
• Fixed Income: US Treasury yields at front end of curve move higher still after bank holiday yesterday. T-bond auction later today
• Currencies: The US dollar surge continues, with USDJPY breaking significant resistance levels and threatening 160.00

Macro

• Nvidia shares sank almost 9% postmarket as the board meets to discuss Jensen Huang's future. This after the NYT reported allegations of a relationship between the CEO and an executive, while the WSJ said the board was preparing to remove him. Turmoil at Nvidia could have broader global market repercussions given its central role in the AI boom.
• Japan’s producer prices rose 7.1% yoy in October, above expectations and September’s 6.8%, signaling renewed upstream inflation amid a weaker yen and higher input costs. Prices were broadly higher across key sectors, and the monthly gain of 0.7% was the fastest in five months.
• US–Iran talks are deadlocked, with Tehran refusing to give up enriched nuclear material and insisting on sanctions relief and an end to the naval blockade before reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Ukrainian drones have hit refineries handling about 30% of Russia’s oil-processing capacity, but US oil prices remain nearly 20% below their October peak as Middle East supply recovers.
• Waller’s remarks and the hotter CPI report triggered repricing, while Paulson (2026 voter) warned the Fed could move more aggressively if inflation worsens but maintained that gradual hikes remain appropriate and data dependent.
• Democrat Scott Colom has been declared the winner in Mississippi, further strengthening the Democrats' US Senate majority to 55 with Alaska yet to declare. Hyde-Smith conceded the closely contested race, which Colom won by approximately half a percentage point, congratulating her opponent and saying she respected the decision of Mississippi voters.

More in our Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

• 0700 – UK Sep. Manufacturing Production
• 0700 – UK Q3 GDP Estimate
• 0700 – UK Sep. Trade Balance
• 1330 – US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
• 1500 – US Oct. Existing Home Sale
• 1700 – US Treasury to auction 30-year T-bonds
• Fed Speakers Today: Hammack (Voter - 1400), Barr (Voter - 1500), Goolsbee (1615), Daly (1810), Schmid (1830), Williams (Voter - 2330)

Earnings events

• Thursday: Cisco Systems, Applied Materials, Siemens, Allianz, Enel, Brookfield, Merck, Nu Holdings

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• USA: The S&P 500 gained 1.3%, the Nasdaq 100 jumped 2.3% and the Dow rose 0.5% on Wednesday as strong results from CoreWeave eased concerns about artificial intelligence spending. CoreWeave surged 24.7% after raising its revenue outlook and easing concerns about its growing debt burden, while Nvidia gained 2.9%. However, sentiment reversed after hours as reports emerged that Nvidia’s board was considering replacing CEO Jensen Huang following fresh allegations about his personal conduct. Nvidia fell around 8% after hours, dragging AI infrastructure stocks and US futures lower, with investors now watching for leadership developments and the chipmaker’s earnings on 17 November.
• Europe: The Stoxx 600 gained 0.7% to a record close, Germany’s DAX rose 1.2%, France’s CAC 40 added 0.7% and the FTSE 100 climbed 0.8% as strong corporate earnings and renewed optimism around AI supported sentiment. Siemens Energy surged 10.8% after reporting record annual results, raising its profit outlook and announcing plans to more than triple its dividend, highlighting continued demand for power infrastructure. Meanwhile, higher commodity prices lifted energy and mining stocks, while Taylor Wimpey fell 4.5% after warning of weaker UK housing demand and disappointing profit expectations. Investors now await Friday’s eurozone growth data.
• Asia: Asian equities traded mixed on Thursday, with Japan’s Nikkei and South Korea’s Kospi hovering around unchanged levels while Hong Kong and Taiwan came under pressure as investors assessed Nvidia’s leadership uncertainty. Semiconductor stocks remained in focus, with SK Hynix slipping and Samsung Electronics surrendering early gains, while TSMC attracted attention given its close exposure to Nvidia’s chip supply chain. In Japan, investors also monitored currency developments as the yen traded near 160 per dollar, prompting warnings from officials over its recent weakness. Meanwhile, two new technology listings debuted in Hong Kong, testing investor appetite amid renewed uncertainty surrounding the AI sector.

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Volatility

VIX 17.46 | VIX FUTURES: 18.850 (Nov) | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: 149.09 | MARKET REGIME: TRANSITIONING | AS OF ~08:00 CET

• Wednesday's AI rally drained premium from every part of the vol complex, and the overnight Nvidia board crisis has started to put some of it back. The VIX fell about 10% to 17.49 while implied correlation dropped a fifth to below 10. The tape explains why: Nvidia, AMD and Broadcom rallied while Microsoft, Meta and Amazon each lost about 2%, and Nasdaq vol holds a premium of more than nine points.
• The Fed-hike hump in the November future collapsed at settlement but rebuilt almost to level overnight as Nvidia fell close to 8% after hours. Jobless claims at 14:30 CET and the 30-year auction at 19:00 CET test a 10-year sitting just below 5%.

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Digital Assets

BITCOIN ~73,440 -0.66% | ETHEREUM ~2,042 +0.52% | IBIT 42.24 +1.34% | ETHA 47.06 +1.23% | AS OF ~08:00 CET

• Crypto equities rallied with the AI trade on Wednesday while the tokens stayed pinned, then handed much of it back after the close. AI-exposed miners led, with Cipher up almost 9% and IREN close to 6%, as CoreWeave's results revived demand for data-centre capacity. After hours the same names fell as Nvidia slid, which shows they now trade on AI headlines more than on bitcoin.
• MSCI confirmed Strategy's deletion, effective after the 30 November close, which forces passive selling regardless of the coin. Bitcoin holds near USD 73,500, just above Tuesday's low, while ether funds shed about USD 145m and bitcoin funds logged another outflow.

Commodities

• Oil: Brent trades flat on the day near a two-month low as Middle East oil production continued to recover despite the deadlock in US–Iran negotiations. Tehran remains unwilling to surrender its enriched nuclear material, while insisting on sanctions relief and an end to the US naval blockade before reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia and Iraq have informed OPEC that their October production had returned to pre-war levels, highlighting how producers have increasingly relied on alternative export routes and logistical workarounds to restore output without a peace deal or secure shipping lanes. With UAE production also rising, the recovery is adding downward pressure on crude prices, raising future glut concerns, even as unresolved geopolitical tensions continue to threaten the normalisation of regional energy flows.
• Metals: Gold retreated to test key support near USD 3,970, a level that has repeatedly acted as both support and resistance in recent weeks, as sellers focused on persistent US inflation and hawkish comments from several Fed officials. Following the hotter-than-expected CPI readings, speculation has grown that the FOMC could opt for a 50-basis-point rate hike at its December meeting, despite the recent sharp decline in energy prices that may help ease inflation pressures in the months ahead. For now, the technical outlook remains weak, leaving sellers in control as traders monitor incoming economic data and comments from Fed officials for clues on the likely pace of further tightening.

More in our Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary

Fixed Income

• US Treasury yields remain higher in early trading Thursday after Wednesday’s bank holiday. Treasury yields surged Tuesday on the one-two combination of pronounced hawkish commentary from Fed Board of Governors member Christopher Waller and the hotter than expected US October CPI. The benchmark US 2-year yield rose another three basis points in early trading Thursday, trading 4.77% after surging 17 basis points on Tuesday. At the longer end of the yield curve, the benchmark 10-year treasury yield is steady at 4.99%. The US Treasury will auction 30-year T-bonds today.
• Japan’s government bond yields steadied Thursday after the Tuesday surge in US treasury yields saw contagion into the Japanese government bond Wednesday, sending yields all along the JGB yield curve higher. The benchmark 2-year Japanese government bond yield traders near 1.85% in late trading in Tokyo on Thursday, down slightly from Wednesday’s closing level but up from last week’s low point near 1.72%.

Currencies

• The US dollar rally extended Wednesday and into early Thursday, with USD bulls perhaps emboldened by the lack of fight from Japanese officialdom against JPY weakening as USDJPY sliced up through 158.50-159.00 resistance and even briefly threatened the 160.00 level Wednesday, peaking at 159.94. The sharp repricing of Fed rate hike expectations to the upside seems behind the bulk of the move after Waller’s hawkish comments and a hot US CPI data point Tuesday. The Fed is now priced to hike more than 25 basis points at the December 9 FOMC meeting (a small minority looking for a 50-basis point hike), with a total of almost 60 basis points of further tightening priced into forward expectations through the March 17, 2027 meeting. US treasury markets are open again today after yesterday’s bank holiday and the US Treasury will auction 30-year T-bonds later today. EURUSD hit a new cycle low, testing the 17-month low of 1.1065, below which the round 1.1000 level and then perhaps a 1.0890 Fibonacci retracement off the early 2025 lows are the next mileposts. GBPUSD traded close to 1.3250 at local four-week lows and AUDUSD pushed to its lowest level since January of this year, trading near 0.6830.

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