Global Market Quick Take: Asia – July 24, 2025

 Key points:

• Macro: EU and US are nearing a trade deal with 15% tariff on EU goods
• Equities:Equities up across the board due to trade optimism
• FX: Aussie dollar hits 66 cents amid a risk-on sentiment
• Commodities: U.S. copper futures reached a record premium over LME prices, nearly 30%
• Fixed income: The 10-year yield climbed, moving back above the 200-day average

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

• US existing-home sales dropped 2.7% to an annual rate of 3.93 million units in June 2025, the lowest since September 2024, missing expectations of 4.01 million. The median home price reached a record $435,300. Single-family home sales fell 3%, while condos and co-ops remained at 360,000 units.
• Japan pledged to invest $550 billion in the US and open its markets to American goods. A trade agreement with the Philippines was announced, with hopes for a European Union deal. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said there's no rush to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
• The EU and US are nearing a trade deal with a 15% US tariff on EU goods, with possible exemptions for select EU products, according to Reuters. EU states will vote on EUR 93 billion in counter-tariffs on Thursday, with broad support for using the anti-coercion tool if tariffs reach 30%. The FT reports that the deal may waive tariffs on aircraft, spirits, and medical devices.

Equities: 

• US - US stock futures were mixed Thursday. Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 futures rose 0.4% and 0.1% due to Alphabet's 2% gain, while Tesla fell 4.5% over disappointing auto revenue. Dow futures dropped 0.3% following IBM's 5% decline due to missed Q2 software estimates. Wednesday saw the Dow up 1.14%, the S&P 500 up 0.78%, and the Nasdaq Composite up 0.61% on trade optimism and strong earnings.
• Hong Kong - Hang Seng surged 408 points (1.6%) to 25,538 on Tuesday, marking its fourth straight gain and highest close in nearly four years. The rally was driven by broad sector strength and optimism ahead of U.S.-China trade talks in Stockholm next week. Bullish sentiment was further boosted by rising turnover in China’s equity markets and a four-month high in margin financing.
• Japan - Nikkei 225 surged 3.51% to 41,171, and the Topix gained 3.18% to 2,926 on Wednesday, reaching one-year highs after Trump announced a trade deal with Japan involving $550 billion investment and a 15% tariff on Japanese exports. Japanese automakers led gains: Toyota rose 14.3%, Honda 11.2%, and Nissan 8.3%. Financials, industrials, and consumer stocks also advanced on trade optimism.

Earnings this week:

• Thursday: American Airlines, The Blackstone Group, Nokia, Southwest Airlines, Flex, Union Pacific, Intel, Newmont Corporation, Deckers Brands, Nasdaq
• Friday: Centene Corporation, HCA Healthcare

FX:

• The euro recovered losses as EU diplomats revealed ongoing efforts for an agreement with the US on levies. EURUSD rose 0.1% to 1.1762 on news of a possible EU-US trade deal with 15% tariffs on European imports, pending US President Trump's approval. Overnight volatility remains around 9.3%, signaling expectations for measured moves ahead of Thursday's ECB policy decision and PMI data from the eurozone and US.
• USDJPY was down 0.1% to 146.53 in volatile trade, easing earlier losses. The yen initially rallied on trade deal reports, faltered after news of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's potential resignation, but rebounded after a denial and reports of him extending his tenure post-agreement.
• The Australian and New Zealand dollars led G-10 gains amid a risk-on sentiment in global stock markets, with AUDUSD up 0.5% to 0.66 and NZDUSD increasing 0.6% to 0.6038. USDCAD climbed 0.1% to 1.3612.

Commodities:

• Oil steadied after losses as investors eyed US trade talks progress and low inventories. Brent stayed below $69, WTI above $65. Trump announced 15%-50% tariffs before Aug. 1 talks, with Japan's rate set at 15%; EU discussions are ongoing.
• Gold stayed low as US negotiations with key trade partners lowered demand for safe-haven assets. Bullion was near $3,390 an ounce after a 1.3% loss, with the EU eyeing a 15% US tariff deal, following Japan's similar agreement and $550 billion investment pledge.
• U.S. front-month copper futures hit a record premium over LME prices, about $2,900 per ton, nearly 30% higher than in London. Copper on the LME rose 0.1% to $9,926 per ton, while aluminum dipped, nickel gained, and zinc stayed flat.

Fixed income:

• Treasuries ended with higher yields as trade deals boosted S&P 500 stocks towards a record high. Strong demand at the 20-year bond auction eased the selloff for longer maturities. The 10-year yield rose above its 200-day average after closing below it Tuesday. New Zealand bonds fell along with global markets ahead of debt auctions and a speech by the Reserve Bank’s Paul Conway. Treasury futures were largely unchanged.

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