Europe's banking revival: bigger profits, bigger ambitions, bigger risks

Key takeaways

• Banco BPM's merger-driven rally and UniCredit's earnings jump tell different stories about shareholder value.
• Stronger profits allow banks to reward shareholders, but lower interest rates test their resilience.
• Acquisitions can create growth, provided the benefits justify the price and risks.

European banks attracted renewed investor interest, with Banco BPM shares surging after Crédit Agricole proposed combining its Italian operations with the lender, raising expectations of further consolidation across the sector. UniCredit also rallied strongly after reporting record quarterly profits and raising its outlook, reinforcing confidence in banks' profitability and ability to reward shareholders.

The reasons behind the two rallies were different: one driven by the prospect of a merger, the other by stronger earnings. Yet both point to a broader shift in European banking, where the focus is moving from restructuring and recovery towards profitability, growth and consolidation.

From repairing balance sheets to rewarding shareholders

UniCredit earned 3.3 billion EUR in the third quarter, 24% more than a year earlier. It increased its interim dividend to 4.5 billion EUR while maintaining a 15% core capital ratio, a measure of its financial cushion.

Survival remains important, but profitability has moved up the agenda. Investors can increasingly ask how efficiently banks use shareholders' money and what they return through dividends or share buybacks.

Return on equity measures profit relative to shareholders' capital. Higher is generally better, provided it does not come from excessive risk. Regulation also matters: Switzerland's proposed stricter capital requirements for UBS show how larger financial cushions can make banks safer, but potentially less profitable for shareholders.

But the easy tailwind from higher interest rates has faded. As lending margins face pressure, banks must rely more on customer growth, fees and cost control. Good management now matters as much as favourable interest rates.

The merger premium is not free money

Crédit Agricole proposes merging its Italian operations with Banco BPM, creating Italy's third-largest bank. The proposed terms reflect a 20% valuation premium based on expected 2027 earnings multiples and include a 1 billion EUR special dividend for Banco BPM shareholders.

The attraction is scale. Combining branches, technology and products could reduce duplicated costs and increase revenues. Crédit Agricole estimates 800 million EUR in annual benefits before tax.

Yet these are projections, not profits already earned. The bigger the premium paid, the more value the merged bank must produce to justify it. What looks attractive to the bank being acquired may be less attractive to the buyer.

A European trend with national complications

Intesa Sanpaolo has received regulatory approval for its offer documents for Monte dei Paschi di Siena. UniCredit is pursuing control of Germany's Commerzbank, highlighting both the ambition and political sensitivity of cross-border mergers.

Banks such as BNP Paribas, Société Générale, Santander and UBS have different mixes of lending, investment banking and wealth management. Their valuations should reflect those differences, not merely takeover headlines.

An investor's checklist

• Profitability: compare returns on equity across several years, not just one strong quarter.
• Safety and payouts: check capital buffers, bad loans and whether recurring profits cover dividends.
• Acquisition discipline: monitor the price paid, integration costs and whether promised savings materialise.

The next chapter will be written in profits, not press releases

Banco BPM's rally shows how quickly a merger proposal can change a bank's market value. UniCredit's results show another route: generate stronger earnings and return some of them to shareholders.

Both matter, but neither removes the risks of weaker economies, loan losses or disappointing acquisitions. Nor does a generous dividend automatically make a share cheap.

For investors, the most attractive bank is not necessarily the one announcing the biggest deal or paying the largest dividend. It is the one that earns good returns, protects its capital and invests shareholders' money carefully, even when the headlines become less exciting.