Quarterly Outlook
Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Access both platforms from your single Saxo account.
What’s next as gold hits our USD 3,300 target
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
This content is marketing material
Key points:
- An impressive 25% year-to-date rally has seen the spot gold price reach our 2025 target of USD 3,300 well ahead of schedule, raising the question of where do we go next.
- In the short to medium term, a combination of heightened global economic tensions, the risk of stagflation, and a weaker dollar may continue to support bullion.
- While gold continues to reach fresh all-time highs, silver has struggled to keep up, in the process lifting its relative cheapness compared to where we have seen it for the past three years.
- We raise our 2025 forecast for gold to USD 3,500 per ounce, while silver, despite its industrious exposure and current recession worries, may still reclaim some lost ground, rising towards USD 40.
An impressive 25% year-to-date rally has seen the spot gold price reach our 2025 target of USD 3,300 well ahead of schedule, raising the question of where do we go next? Gold has been on a tear since Q4 2022 when a triple bottom around USD 1,620 signalled the confirmation of a solid price floor following three years of sideways action. It would take another year until December 2023 before technical resistance around USD 2,075 was finally broken, with the trigger being heightened geopolitical tensions as the Israel-Hamas war started, adding to already strong demand from central banks seeking to diversify and de-dollarise their reserves.
From the below table, it is also clear that gold’s strong performance has to a great extent been driven by USD weakness, most notably against the three current go-to currencies of EUR, JPY, and CHF, leading to more modest gains for investors in those regions and countries, while investors in China and India, two of the world’s biggest markets for retail demand, have seen currency moves that justify an increased exposure to gold as a hedge against local currency weakness.
In the past two years, that underlying demand from central banks combined with the Federal Reserve cutting rates, increased focus on rising government debt piles, and governments employing sanctions, export controls, tariffs, and investment restrictions have all added to gold’s appeal, and recently given additional support from the risk of recession and inflation driven by US trade tariffs against friends and foes. In this context, it's worth keeping in mind that, unlike sovereign bonds—which can get tangled up in politics—or currencies, which shift with trade ties and alliances, gold and other precious metals are politically neutral. They're recognised everywhere and aren't tied to any one country’s credit rating. That’s a big part of why investors—whether private, institutional, or central banks—keep turning to gold, even at these record levels.
In the short to medium term, a combination of heightened global economic tensions, the risk of stagflation—a combination of lower employment, growth, and rising inflation—a weaker dollar, may, in our opinion, continue to support bullion, and to a certain extent also silver given its relative cheapness following an early April slump. Adding to this is a market that is now aggressively positioning for the Fed to deliver more cuts this year—at current count more than 75 basis points of easing by year-end—and not least continued demand from central banks and high-net-worth individuals, especially in Asia, looking to reduce or hedge their exposure to US government bonds and the dollar.
While gold has broken above USD 3,300 to reach another all-time high, silver has yet to challenge the October 2024 high at USD 34.90, especially after the semi-industrious metal suffered an 18% top-to-bottom correction in the days that followed Trump’s tariff attack on 3 April. However, looking at the relative strength between gold and silver, we find that the gold-silver ratio - insert below - in the past three years averaged around 85, even during a period where gold was supported by record amounts of central bank buying.
It raises the question of whether silver’s 50% exposure to industrial appliances and recession angst justifies its relative cheapness with the current ratio around 100. It is our belief that it doesn’t for several reasons: 1) silver’s industrial use towards the energy transition is unlikely to suffer a major setback despite a recession, 2) gold’s rally creating a natural interest to buy its ‘cheaper’ sibling, and 3) silver is projected to experience another supply deficit in 2025, marking the fifth consecutive year of such shortfalls.
With all the mentioned developments in mind, we raise our 2025 forecast for gold to USD 3,500 per ounce, while silver, given its industrious exposure and current recession worries, may struggle to materially outperform gold as we had previously forecast. Instead, based on the XAU/XAG ratio returning towards 90 from above 100 currently, we see silver eventually making it higher towards USD 40.
Gold supportive developments - in brief
US Fed Funds rate expectations: Market participants closely watch interest rate expectations set by the Federal Reserve, as they heavily influence the attractiveness of gold. Currently, the futures market is pricing in the possibility of a 75–100 basis point rate cut before year-end, suggesting a more accommodative monetary policy. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold (which doesn’t pay interest), thereby supporting its price.
Investment demand for “paper” gold through futures and exchange-traded funds (ETFs): The demand for gold-backed financial products depends on technical market factors, such as price momentum, as well as macroeconomic indicators. In addition, a key factor for investors in ETFs is the cost of holding a non-yielding assets like gold, with the prospect for lower funding cost and recession worries boosting demand. Current known holdings in bullion-backed ETFs stands at 2773 tons, up 269 tons from last May but still well below the 2020 record peak at 3453 tons.
Rising US inflation expectations: Investors often turn to gold as a hedge against inflation. Recently, falling real yields (nominal yields minus inflation expectations) across the US Treasury yield curve have signaled growing concerns about future inflation. As inflation expectations rise, the real return on fixed-income assets decreases, increasing the relative appeal of gold.
Geopolitical risks: Global instability tends to push investors toward safe-haven assets like gold. A recent correlation between defense stocks and gold suggests that as geopolitical tensions rise—such as conflicts, wars, or diplomatic strains—investors seek safety in gold, thereby supporting its price. In addition, the current trade war adds downside risks to growth while lifting the geopolitical temperature, especially between the US and China, the world's two biggest economies.
Central bank demand amid continued focus on reducing dependency on the USD: A growing number of central banks are diversifying their reserves away from the US dollar, often turning to gold as a neutral reserve asset. Notably, China, India, Turkey, and Russia have been leading this trend. In the last three years to 2024, central banks bought more than 1,000 tons in each year, a process that looks set to continue in 2025 and beyond, thereby underpinning the market as supply is being removed from the market.
Recent commodity articles:
15 April 2025: COT Reports show hedge funds racing to cash post-Liberation Day
11 April 2025: Commodities weekly As chaos reigns whats next for markets
10 April 2025: YouTube Interview: Gold, silver, copper, oil - prices, supply, demand in 2025
8 April 2025: Golds deleveraging pullback fails to shake supportive outlook
8 April 2025: Golds deleveraging pullback fails to shake supportive outlook
7 April 2025: COT on Forex and Commodities - April 7 2025
4 April 2025: Commodities weekly Tariff-led recession pain triggers sharp reversal
3 April 2025: Tariff-related recession fears ignite widespread commodities selloff
2 April 2025: Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty
31 Mch 2025: COT Report: Ongoing USD selling amid mixed week for commodities
26 Mch 2025: Commodities show strength in Q1, led by a select few
25 Mch 2025: Crude oil Sanctions threat counters tariff-driven demand worries
24 Mch 2025: COT on Forex and Commodities - 24 March 2025
21 Mch 2025: Commodities weekly: High-flying precious metal sees profit taking
19 Mch 2025: Has the gold express already left the station?
17 Mch 2025: COT Report: Silver and copper stands out in week of energy weakness
14 Mch 2025: Gold surges past USD 3,000 as haven demand grows
12 Mch 2025: Tariffs and the energy transition: Key drivers of copper demand
11 Mch 2025: Gold holds steady despite deleveraging risks in volatile markets
10 Mch 2025: COT Report: Wholesale reductions in speculators' USD and commodity longs
7 Mch 2025: Commodities Weekly: Tariffs, trade tensions, fiscal bazooka, and Ukraine
5 Mch 2025: Tariff threat disconnects HG copper from global market
4 Mch 2025: Stagflation and geopolitical tensions fuel renewed demand for gold
3 Mch 2025: COT Report: Broad retreat sees WTI longs slump to 15-year low
28 Feb 2025: Commodities weekly: Broad weakness as tariff fatigue sets in
24 Feb 2025: COT Report: traders turn selective despite ongoing broad rally
21 Feb 2025: Commodities weekly: energy market strength and Trump rethoric fuel surge
18 Feb 2025: COT report: crude, gold and grains see mild profit taking
5 Feb 2025: Broad Strength Drives Commodities sector to 26-month High
4 Feb 2025: Crude Oil Wipes Out 2025 Gains as Tariffs and Demand Weighs
3 Feb 2025: COT Report: Mixed Week Seen Ahead of Trump's Tariff Offensive
1 Feb 2025: YouTube: Joining Kevin Muir on The Market Huddle podcast
Podcasts that include commodities focus:
11 April 2025: US and China are slipping into an economic war
4 April 2025: Markets melts down as recession risks go global
1 April 2025: Bracing for Liberation Day
25 Mch 2025: Did Trump just blink?
18 Mch 2025: US market found support, but how durable will it be?
14 Mch 2025: Is silver set to shoot the lights out?
10 Mch 2025: US un-exceptionalism is the theme
7 Mch 2025: US bear market risks ratchet higher. EUR train has left the station
4 March 2025: Are we on the verge of a big whoosh?
25 Feb 2025: Meltdown risks are rising. What to watch next
18 Feb 2025: Europe is on fire
5 Feb 2025: Mag 7 risks underappreciated?
3 Feb 2025: If new Trump tariffs stick, markets have only just begun to react
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Upending the global order at blinding speed
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
We are witnessing a once-in-a-lifetime shredding of the global order. As the new order takes shape, ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy