Morning Brew March 19 2026

Good Morning,

Oil prices surged, with Brent rising by as much as $5 per barrel, after Iran launched attacks on energy facilities throughout the Middle East following a strike on the South Pars gas field. This marks a significant escalation in the ongoing conflict with the United States and Israel.

Brent futures are trading at $112.42, while U.S. crude is above $97, sparking a broad risk-off move across global markets. The USD Index has soared back above 100. EURUSD stands at 1.1465, GBPUSD at 1.3260, and USDJPY has risen to 159.70 after the Bank of Japan left rates unchanged. Gold is at $4,800, Silver at $72.80, and Platinum at $1975. Key support is Silver is 71.75.

Donald Trump attempted to calm markets, stating that Israel would not carry out further attacks on oil fields unless provoked by Iran.

U.S. 10-year yields are trading at 4.27%.

The GER 40 is at 23,080, US 500 at 6,620, US 30 at 46,215, and Japan 225 at 53,000.

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday held interest rates steady for the second consecutive meeting, as expected, and maintained its projection for one rate cut in 2026. The Fed also forecast higher inflation this year, citing the surge in oil prices due to the conflict in Iran. Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the economic uncertainty stemming from the war and elevated oil prices.

The Bank of Japan also kept interest rates unchanged but cautioned about the impact that rising oil costs from the Middle East conflict could have on underlying inflation, signaling a careful approach to growing price pressures. Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama stated authorities are prepared to "take necessary action at any time against market volatility." With USDJPY nearing 160, this is a critical level to monitor.

Charu spoke to Reuters about the increasing severity of the situation in the Middle East: "It is now hitting the plumbing of the global energy system. What is unsettling markets now is the growing stagflation risk... It means this is no longer just a geopolitical story but a macro one." She added, "This latest escalation feels like a turning point for markets because the conflict is no longer just about military headlines or the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz."

Ole took a look at Gold and Silver yesterday:

• Gold's stall reflects a shift in macro drivers: higher energy costs driving firmer inflation expectations leading to fewer or later rate cuts.
• The US dollar has strengthened on safe-haven flows and energy dynamics, offsetting gold's geopolitical bid.
• A technical break below USD 5,000 and a renewed surge in energy prices have triggered momentum selling and profit taking from a crowded long
• Silver's high-beta link to gold, combined with rising concerns about economic growth and demand, may weigh more heavily on the white metal as longs continue to exit a crowded trade.

 Today, more central bank decisions are expected, but the main focus will likely remain on inflation concerns stemming from Iran, rather than immediate policy action. The Swiss National Bank is expected to keep rates unchanged, and the Swiss Franc has settled near a more comfortable 0.91.

The Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi  is visiting Donald Trump and in Brussels, EU leaders are meeting to discuss various issues. The stance on the Iran war will be closely watched. 

Main focus remains on the middle east, , the question of the ultimate goals of the US  and how to reach them.

Thursday, March 19, 2026

Bank of Japan Swiss National Bank European Central Bank, Bank of England Banco Central do Brasil, Danmarks Nationalbank Czech National Bank

Japan Machine Orders, UK Labor data,  US Initial Jobless Claims

Friday, March 20, 2026

China Loan Rates, EU Trade Balance,