Morning Brew March 18 2026

Good Morning,

Before I come to the Fed, Oil prices fell more than $2 per barrel to pare some of Tuesday's sharp gains after the Iraqi government and Kurdish authorities reached a deal to resume oil exports via Turkey's Ceyhan port

These news ease pressure on markets meaning Indexes rise over night with the US 500at 6755, the US 30 47280, the GER 40 is 23905 and the Japan 225 54800.

US 10 Year Yields fall to 4.17 from a high near 4.30, the USD Index is 99.52 after 100.50 Monday.

EURUSD is 1.1540, GBPUSD 1.3365, USDJPPY 158.70 and EURCHF 0.9066. Gold and Silver are fundamentally little changed at 5010 and 79.75 UK Crude is 101 USD and the US line 92.75.

Equity movers yesterday were private Credit issuers ad Uber, Swarmer grabbed attention with a 520% IPO pop: The stock surged from its $5 IPO price to close at $31, showing just how aggressively investors are chasing AI, autonomy, defense, and Ukraine-linked battlefield tech.

Also noteworthy was the German ZEW Index coming in massively lower than already feared and showing that the glass is not half full in Germany.

Today all eyes will be on the Fed and the FOMC rate decision. Please be aware it will be at 19:00 CET, not the usual 20:00 due to US daylight savings time.

What is important?
It is basically certain rates will stay unchanged (98%) but it is a quarter end session meaning new projections and outlook will be issued in combination with the new dot plot. What is the Fed`s take on the economy after the war in Iran? Right now,  25 basis points of cuts are expected in 2026 – This is the number to watch

It is the second last meeting with Jerome Powell as Fed Chairman – his statements in the  press conference will be closely watched

Amazon sees AI  help cloud computing unit Amazon Web Services achieve $600 billion in annual sales, double the prior estimate.
Meta has failed to stop illegal ads for high-risk financial products running on its platforms in Britain

Economic data today predates the Iran War so it should not be significant, follow any news from Iran, the US attempt to get allies to support them and the Fes`s take on the state of the economy.,

Wednesday, March 18, 2026

US Federal Reserve, Bank of Canada,

Japan Trade, EU February Inflation, US PPI&PPI

Thursday, March 19, 2026

Bank of Japan Swiss National Bank European Central Bank, Bank of England Banco Central do Brasil, Danmarks Nationalbank Czech National Bank

Japan Machine Orders, UK Labor data,  US Initial Jobless Claims

Friday, March 20, 2026

China Loan Rates, EU Trade Balance,