Morning Brew March 17 2026

Good Morning, 

Geopolitical tensions continue to dominate sentiment, with Iran’s widening conflict keeping markets in a cautious holding pattern. The U.S. is seeking allied support to reopen the Strait of Hormuz—a key artery for global oil flows—after several ships successfully passed through yesterday, offering brief relief to risk assets. Still, calm remains superficial.

Reuters reported that Gulf Arab states are urging Washington not to disengage diplomatically with Tehran, warning that the region’s energy security remains fragile. Operations at the UAE’s Shah gas field remain suspended following a drone strike, and another attack triggered a fire in Fujairah’s Oil Industry Zone. Iran’s retaliation, unexpectedly targeting multiple neighbors including Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, and Kuwait, has taken regional observers by surprise.

The scale of the war is increasing, the UN fears around a million displaced in Lebanon alone as Israel seeks to eliminate Hezbollah

Markets

U.S. equities rebounded strongly on Monday as fears of an extended energy shock eased. The S&P 500 closed up 1.1%, the Dow Jones added 1.0%, and the Nasdaq gained 1.2%. In Europe, the STOXX 50 rose 0.4% to 5,740 and the STOXX 600 climbed 0.5% to 599. Financials outperformed, with Deutsche Bank up 1.5% and UniCredit adding 0.5% after unveiling a €35 billion bid for Commerzbank. Globally, chipmakers extended gains, lifting ASML by 1.5%.

Oil prices retreated following the resumption of shipping through Hormuz, signaling conditional export leniency from Tehran and easing inflation expectations. However, early trading this morning shows markets surrendering 0.5–0.8% of yesterday’s gains amid a lack of fresh catalysts.

Global Developments

U.S. President Donald Trump said he will postpone his planned early-April trip to China by about a month, citing the crisis in Iran. Meanwhile, a federal judge blocked key parts of Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s proposed vaccine policy overhaul. In Cuba, a nationwide blackout left around 10 million without electricity as the island struggles under an American oil blockade—another point of geopolitical friction.

Nvidia GTC 2026: From chipmaker to full-stack AI

Key points:

• GTC confirmed that AI is moving from training to inference: Nvidia’s core message was that the next leg of demand will come from running AI at scale, not just building bigger models.
• Agentic AI is becoming a bigger part of the Nvidia story: Nvidia is positioning not only for model training and inference, but also for AI agents that can plan, reason, and act across enterprise and industrial workflows.
• The opportunity is broadening, but so is the burden of proof: Memory, data-centre infrastructure, enterprise AI software, and physical AI could all benefit, but investors still need evidence that monetisation and execution can keep pace with spending.

SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won warned the global chip wafer shortage could persist until 2030, driven by relentless AI demand.

FX & Commodities

The U.S. dollar weakened as easing oil prices and cautious optimism in shipping lanes encouraged risk appetite. The DXY index slipped below the key 100 level. EURUSD trades at 1.1478, GBPUSD at 1.3290, and USDJPY at 159.40. The Swiss franc softened slightly versus the euro to 0.9060, taking some pressure off the SNB. Bitcoin is steady near USD 74,000.

The Reserve Bank of Australia delivered a 25 bp rate hike overnight—fully in line with expectations—though the tight vote leaves the future path uncertain.

Gold and silver saw significant intraday swings, with silver plunging over 4% before closing higher. Gold currently trades at USD 5,015 and silver at USD 80.75.

Looking Ahead

All eyes remain on the Middle East for cues on direction, with the ZEW sentiment index later today among the first economic indicators to incorporate the Iran conflict into its assessment.

Tuesday, March 17, 2026

Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank Indonesia,

Germany  ZEW

Wednesday, March 18, 2026

US Federal Reserve, Bank of Canada,

Japan Trade, EU February Inflation, US PPI&PPI

Thursday, March 19, 2026

Bank of Japan Swiss National Bank European Central Bank, Bank of England Banco Central do Brasil, Danmarks Nationalbank Czech National Bank

Japan Machine Orders, UK Labor data,  US Initial Jobless Claims

Friday, March 20, 2026

China Loan Rates, EU Trade Balance,