Morning Brew June 22 2026

Good morning.

A further escalation in the Middle East has been averted, and talks near Lucerne are continuing after a tense weekend. At one point, it looked as though the talks might end prematurely amid threats and complaints.

The initial talks have concluded, and lower-level discussions are continuing. Qatar and Pakistan are reporting progress.

In the UK, Keir Starmer is rumored to be preparing to announce his resignation today.

Equity futures are little changed in Europe and the US, while Japan and Korea gained on progress in the peace talks. Oil is lower and precious metals are firmer. The USD Index remains high at 100.85, EUR/USD is at 1.1460, GBP/USD at 1.3220, and perhaps the most interesting pair is USD/JPY at 161.65, where intervention is likely imminent. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama reiterated that Tokyo “will respond appropriately to currency moves at any time.” US yields are rising as the probability of a September hike increases. Markets are now pricing a 45% probability of a hike in July and 75% in September.

Nevertheless, gold is at 4,195 and silver at 66.20, while oil is at 79 on the UK line.

The biggest near-term question for the copper market is whether Trump will proceed with tariffs on refined copper, with a Commerce Secretary review due at the end of June expected to inform the decision. Spot copper closed at $13,595 per tonne on Friday, down $95.50 on the day. Capstone Copper has scaled back operations in Chile to preserve sulfuric acid supplies disrupted by the Middle East conflict, while the global ore shortage continues to support the broader copper market.

The week ahead will be driven by data, with tomorrow’s PMI releases and Thursday’s US inflation figures as the key highlights.

Micron reports fiscal third-quarter earnings on 24 June 2026, and this is no ordinary chip preview. The company makes memory and storage chips—the quiet parts of technology that help devices and servers remember, retrieve, and process data. Usually, memory sits in the background. This week, it has walked onto the stage and taken the microphone.

Progress in the peace talks will be closely watched, and I expect US politics to remain very much in focus as pressure on Donald Trump rises.

Trade safely.

Monday, June 22, 2026

China rate decision, Canada CPI, EU Consumer Confidence

Tuesday, June 23, 2026
Global PMI, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

Wednesday, June 24, 2026
U.S. New Home Sales, Germany IFO U.S. Current Account, Fed Stress Test Results

Thursday, June 25, 2026
U.S. GDP, Personal Income & Spending, PCE, Durable Goods Orders, Initial Jobless Claims

Friday, June 26, 2026
U.S. Advanced Goods Trade Balance, University of Michigan Sentiment Final, Kansas City Fed Services Activity