Morning Brew December 15 2025

Good morning,

Friday was one of those Risk off Fridays again, without obvioujs trigger, likely it was a

The Dow Jones rose by 0.51%, the S&P 500 increased by 1.07%, and the Nasdaq gained 1.69%. Over the week, the Dow was up 1%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both lost 0.6%, with the Nasdaq down 1.6%.

Broadcom fell by more than 11% as concerns about profit margins added to worries about the payoff from artificial intelligence investments. Broadcom was the biggest drag on the S&P 500 for the day. Nvidia, a leading company in AI chips, dropped 3.3%. Other companies that had previously benefited from the AI trend also reversed course on Friday. SanDisk fell 14.7%, making it the S&P 500’s biggest percentage decliner. Investors also pulled back from AI infrastructure companies, with CoreWeave down 10.1% and Oklo losing 15.1%.

Lululemon Athletica shares rallied 9.6% after the apparel maker raised its annual profit forecast and announced that Chief Executive Officer Calvin McDonald would be leaving the company.

Oracle declined by 4.5%, adding to Thursday’s nearly 11% drop.

In commodities, silver lost 2.5% on Friday but gained 6.5% over the week. Gold was up by half a percent on Friday and 2.6% for the week. Platinum rose by 2.8% on Friday and 5.7% for the week. This morning, Silver is up almost all of what lost on Friday while Gold and Platinum remain strong, Gold is 50 USD away from the all time high, Platinum less than 20.

The US dollar index fell by 0.4% on Friday and 1% over the week. Ten-year US Treasury yields are at 4.20%, and 30-year yields are at 4.85%. The Japanese 10-year yield appears to be heading toward the important 2% level again.

China's factory output growth slowed to a 15-month low, while retail sales posted their worst performance since Corona. Retail Sales had been expected at 2.8% but only delivered 1.3%.

Confidence among Japan’s large manufacturers hit a four-year high, with the index rising to 15 from 14 in September, while large non-manufacturers held at 34, near early-1990s highs.

Key Stories from the past week: | Saxo

Looking ahead The coming week is expected to be very important.

• Sentiment around artificial intelligence may be the most significant factor after last week’s developments.
• Key US economic data will be released, including Nonfarm Payrolls, Consumer Price Index (CPI), and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)—all in the same week.
• The European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, and Scandinavian central banks will set interest rates.
• Federal Reserve speakers are also on the agenda. Donald Trump said inflation is “totally neutralised” and that a new Federal Reserve chair would seek lower interest rates
• Friday is “quadruple witching,” with futures and options expiring.
• This is the last full week of trading before year-end; the following week will likely see lower liquidity due to the Christmas and New Year holidays.
  
  
• If you are trading in foreign exchange, please be extra careful about rollover costs. It is best to avoid the usual roll by using forwards or by swapping your positions using a swap ticket.

Monday December 15

Japan Tankan, Chiana Retail Sales, Canada CPI, EU Industrial Production

Speakers: Miran, Williams,

Tuesday December 16

International  PMI, Germany ZEW, US Nonfarm Payrolls

Wednesday December 17

Japan Trade, UK CPI, DE IFO, EU Infaltion,

Speakers: Waller, Bostic, Williams,

Thurday December 18

Sweden, Norway Denmark , EU & UK  Rate Decision US CPI.

Speakers: Lagarde

Friday December 19

Japan Rate decision UK Retail Sales, US PCE, University of Michigan