Morning Brew December 10 2025

Good morning,

Awaiting the Fed's announcement, markets were fairly calm yesterday. The most noteworthy movements involved Silver, Bitcoin, JP Morgan, ThyssenKrupp, and defense stocks.

U.S. indexes were essentially flat, with low volume (14 billion shares versus an average of 17.5 billion). JP Morgan projected a higher cost base and lost nearly 5%. The bidding war around Warner Bros remained in focus, while defense stocks in Europe rose on the expectation of substantial German military spending. ThyssenKrupp expects a loss and declined by 7%.

U.S. 10-year yields continue to rise, currently at 4.17%, while the USD Index fell to 99.20. EUR/USD is at 1.1640, GBP/USD at 1.3320, and USD/JPY at 156.70. Gold remains stable at 4205, Silver surged past the 60 level yesterday, now at 61.33. Bitcoin reclaimed the 90k level and is trading at 92,600.

White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett, the front-runner to be the next Federal Reserve chair, told the Wall Street Journal that there is "plenty of room" to cut interest rates further. However, he added that if inflation rises, the calculation may change.

All eyes are on the Fed today, with clear expectations of a rate cut. The question is whether it will be a hawkish or dovish cut. There is a 90% probability that the cut will happen, but the outlook is crucial: Currently, projections for the end of 2026 call for three cuts from current levels—a shift in this stance will be the tipping point for markets. While the S&P is slightly lower, the all-time high is still within reach.

Additionally, Oracle's earnings have the potential to significantly move markets today in terms of scheduled events. There is also considerable political and geopolitical risk to consider.

Trade safely.

Wednesday December 10

China CPI & PPIFOMC Rate Decision, Bank of Canada Rate Decision

Oracle, Adobe, Chewy, Synopsys, Nordson

Thursday December 11

Swiss National Bank Rate Decision, US Initial Jobless claims

Costco, Broadcom, RH (Restoration Hardware), Lululemon

Friday December 12

Germany Inflation, UK GDP, France CPI