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Market Quick Take – 25 June 2025

Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: Ceasefire lifts global stocks, tech outperforms, energy weak, airlines surge
• Volatility: VIX drops to 17.5, volatility back to normal, insurance cheaper
• Digital assets: Bitcoin steady, IBIT/ETHA rally, crypto stocks surge, stablecoin news
• Fixed Income: US treasury yields drop as Fed Chair Powell testifies before House committee
• Currencies: The US dollar was sharply weaker yesterday, but stabilized overnight. AUD weak on soft CPI
• Commodities: Crude’s geopolitical risk premium evaporates. Platinum back on top
• Macro events: US May New Home Sales

Macro data and headlines

• Israel and Iran seemed to be complying with a US-brokered ceasefire agreement after Trump’s firm response to reports of initial breaches by both parties.
• Powell said inflation could come in weaker than expected, which would support an earlier rate cut. However, if inflation or labor market strength persists, that could delay any rate cuts.
• According to the South China Morning Post, China’s president Xi Jinping will not attend the Brics summit in Rio de Janeiro, the first time the Chinese leader has skipped a Brics summit, and will send Premier Li Qiang instead. The reason cited by sources is that Xi has already met Brazil’s president Lula twice within the last year.
• Australia’s inflation cooled faster than anticipated in May, after the CPI rose just 2.1% YoY, and below consensus of 2.3%, thereby moving close to the bottom of the Reserve Bank’s 2-3% target, reinforcing expectations the RBA will cut rates next month.
• Canada's annual inflation rate held steady at 1.7% in May 2025, aligning with market expectations and remaining below the Bank of Canada's 2% target for the second month after removing the federal consumer carbon tax.
• The US current account deficit grew by 44.3% to $450.2 billion in Q1 2025, surpassing expectations of $443.3 billion. The goods deficit rose to $466 billion as imports increased by $158.2 billion to $1 trillion, led by nonmonetary gold and consumer goods, primarily medicinal, dental, and pharmaceutical products.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

0645 – France June Consumer Confidence
1400 – US May New Home Sales
1400 – Fed's Powell testifies before Senate Committee
1430 – EIA's Weekly Crude and Fuel Stock Report
1700 – US Treasury to auction 5-year notes

Earnings events

• Today: Micron Technology, Paychex, Alimentation Couche-tard, General Mills
• Thursday: Nike, Hennes & Mauritz

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• US: US stocks surged on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 (+1.11%) nearing a record high, the Nasdaq 100 (+1.53%) closing at all-time highs, and the Dow (+1.19%) gaining over 500 points. Investor optimism followed a US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Iran, which eased risk sentiment and sent oil prices tumbling nearly 20% from recent highs. Tech led gains—Nvidia (+2.6%), Broadcom (+3.9%), AMD (+6.8%). Energy stocks lagged as Exxon (-3%) and Chevron (-2.2%) dropped. Fed Chair Powell reiterated a “wait and see” stance on rate cuts, with investors watching for today’s Senate testimony and key economic data.
• Europe: European markets rallied as geopolitical tensions cooled and energy prices fell. The DAX rose 1.6% to 23,644, buoyed by increased fiscal spending and defense plans in Germany. Travel and materials stocks led gains, with Deutsche Lufthansa up 7%. The CAC 40 gained 1.04%, while the FTSE 100 ended flat, underperforming as BP (-4.8%) and Shell (-3.7%) were hit by lower oil prices. Focus now shifts to the NATO summit and whether the ceasefire will hold, with strategists expecting higher volatility over summer.
• UK: UK equities edged up, with the FTSE 100 closing almost unchanged (+0.01%) as declines in BP and Shell offset travel stock gains. Airlines like IAG (+6.1%) and easyJet (+6.4%) rose on hopes of lower fuel costs and reduced disruptions. Amazon’s £40 billion investment in the UK and a six-month extension of the EU’s data adequacy agreement provided positive headlines. Bank of England policymakers remain cautious as inflation risks linger, while consumer confidence was dented by tariff concerns.
• Asia: Asian stocks followed Wall Street higher. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 0.77%, its fourth consecutive advance, buoyed by tech and auto stocks and optimism over the Israel-Iran ceasefire. South Korea’s KOSPI hit its highest since 2021 on strong automaker and chipmaker performance. In Japan, the Nikkei was little changed as investors parsed BOJ’s mixed policy signals and softer Australian inflation, which may allow for rate cuts ahead.

Volatility

Volatility continues to drift lower. The VIX fell sharply, down 2.35 points to 17.48, its lowest in two weeks, as markets digested the ceasefire and risk appetite returned. VIX futures and ultra-short measures also eased, indicating less demand for downside protection. For long-term investors, this means market pullbacks are likely to remain orderly and option-insurance costs are more attractive after last week’s spike.

Digital Assets

Crypto markets are mirroring the calmer tone. Bitcoin is steady near $106.3k, and Ether trades just above $2,440. BlackRock’s IBIT ETF closed at $60.06 (+2.4%), within reach of its record, while ETHA gained 5.13% to $18.94 as institutional demand remains strong. Crypto stocks rallied—Coinbase (+12.1%), Marathon (+4.9%), and MicroStrategy (+2.7%)—amid the market rebound. Mastercard’s expansion into stablecoins and the Senate’s new stablecoin bill signal further mainstream integration for digital assets.

Fixed Income

• US Treasury yields fell yesterday, with the two-year benchmark closing at its lowest level since early May at 3.82%, down four basis points, and following through lower still to 3.80% overnight. Fed Chair Powell’s slightly more conditional statements on cutting rates seemed to have prompted the move. The 10-year treasury yield benchmark likewise closed at a new local low near 4.30%.
• European yields have ignored the drop in US treasury yields in recent days, with the 10-year German Bund yield in the upper portion of the recent range, closing yesterday near 2.54% as Germany said it would raise bond issuance by EUR 19 billion in the third quarter as it it set for a EUR 500 billion stimulus over the next five years.
• Strong risk sentiment spread to US high yield bonds yesterday, with the Bloomberg high yield bond spread to US treasuries we track tightening sharply by 10 basis points to close at 292 basis points, the lowest level since early March.

Commodities

• Crude prices showed signs of stabilising following a two-day USD 14.5 top-to-bottom collapse, the biggest since 2022, as traders removed the supply risk premium that had built up during Israel's bombing campaign against Iran. Adding further confusion and potential supply on Tuesday was a statement from Trump apparently undermining years of US sanctions on Iran after he gave its biggest buyer, China, the green light to carry on buying. Meanwhile, OPEC+ is expected on 6 July to announce another 411k b/d increase from August. Meanwhile, ahead of the EIA's weekly update, the API reported a 4.3m barrel drop in US crude stocks last week.
• With energy prices plummeting, platinum is once again the star performer, trading up 5% on the week and 47% YTD, and with gold continuing to trade rangebound after finding support around USD 3,300, the gold-platinum ratio has slumped to an 11-month low at 2.51, down from an April peak at 3.54.
• Industrial metals are the only sector trading up in the week, with copper rising for a fourth day amid a tight supply squeeze in London following a sharp decline in stockpiles, with readily available stocks having falled rapidly, partly due to shipments to the US ahead of an expected tariff announcement

Currencies

• The US dollar fell further yesterday, boosted by strong risk sentiment linked to the Iran-Israel ceasefire engineering a swoon in crude oil prices and as the Fed rate cut odds mount slowly. EURUSD briefly touched a new cycle high above 1.1631 amidst Fed Chair Powell comments on Fed rate cut potential yesterday, but the move faded slightly later in the session. Likewise, USDJPY posted an intraday low of 144.51 yesterday, down from the spike high above 148.00 the prior day, before crawling back above 145.00 overnight.
• NOK was the weakest of the European currencies as weak oil prices continued to weigh there, while SEK powered back higher, perhaps on the hopes that the fiscal outlook from Germany and increased focus on defense spending will boost the Swedish economy. EURSEK trades near 11.06 this morning after nearly touching 11.18 this morning.
• The Australian dollar dipped overnight on a softer than anticipated CPI print, pushing AUDNZD back into the range in early June below 1.0800.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.