Copper market navigates tariff uncertainty amid tight global supply

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Key points:

• Copper prices remain rangebound as markets await a US decision on potential tariffs which has already disrupted global trade, triggering a sustained drop in non-US stockpiles, especially in China where demand remains strong.
• Concerns are rising that a build-up of copper stockpiles in the US ahead of the tariffs will leave the rest of the world undersupplied of this key transition metals amid rising demand for power and its main conductor.
• The market is expected to stay supported despite trade war related growth concerns, with downside risks being countered by supply constraints and firm demand.

The copper market continues to trade within a wide range, with some of the price action being driven by market participants trying to preempt what tariff level, if any, the US Commerce Department eventually will recommend the Trump administration apply on US imports. Just like steel and aluminium, Trump has threatened to impose a 25% duty on all copper imports—a move that could roil the global market for one of the world’s most important metals—not least considering a robust demand outlook, recently further enhanced by an energy transition which is expected to increase demand for a key conductor of power towards EVs, AI-related data centres, and cooling as parts of the world continue to get warmer.

The tariffs, designed to protect local producers and foster increased US production and refining capacity, would, however, leave US manufacturers paying much more for their metal than rivals overseas. The probe launched in February under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act is now expected to be ready within weeks, well ahead of the 270-day deadline, and the eventual announcement is very likely to trigger a major price adjustment in the market—not least in the spread between London and New York copper—which reflects the market's attempt to guess the eventual tariff level. Following a slump in early April to 6%, the spread has been hovering around 15% before declining to a current level around 8.5%.

The spread is currently coming down amid strong demand in China, reflected by an ongoing slump in stockpiles monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the highest premium for imported copper since December 2023. Overall, an ongoing decline in copper stocks monitored by the futures exchanges in London and Shanghai has only been partly offset by a rise in New York, albeit stockpiles there has risen to a six-year high driven by hoarding ahead of the mentioned tariff announcement. China has seen the biggest reduction during the past ten weeks, with SHFE-monitored stockpiles down 67% to just 89 kt.