Market Quick Take – 16 December 2025

Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: U.S. tech wobbles into key data, Europe rebounds despite defence dip, Asia retreats on China weakness and artificial intelligence jitters
• Volatility: VIX mid-teens, skew elevated, US data cluster, retail sales focus
• Digital Assets: BTC/ETH softer, IBIT flat but complex outflows, ETHA leads ether ETF outflows, crypto equities under pressure
• Fixed Income: US November Jobs Report & Dec Manufacturing and Services PMI
• Currencies: US dollar steady ahead of US jobs and retail sales, yen firms below 155, sterling softens into the Bank of England meeting
• Commodities: Precious metals ease ahead of jobs report; crude slumps as Ukraine peace hopes grow
• Macro events: Central bank meetings (ECB, Bank of England), US data cluster, Ukraine security deal speculation

Macro headlines

• Today’s US jobs report will cover November payrolls and the unemployment rate, seen rising to 4.5%, but will omit October data due to the shutdown, except for delayed payroll figures. The release will be key for assessing US labour market momentum and shaping expectations for interest rates next year, with payroll estimates ranging from –20,000 to 127,000, with 50k being the consensus level.
• US negotiators offered Ukraine Article 5‑like security guarantees as part of a potential deal to end the war, as Trump said a settlement is closer than ever while suggesting Kyiv should cede territory, and European leaders issued a declaration outlining a framework with security assurances, a ceasefire‑monitoring mechanism, and support for Ukraine’s EU accession.
• Canada's headline inflation rate remained at 2.2% in November 2025, below the expected 2.3%, and continues to approach the Bank of Canada's projected near-term target of 2%.
• A growing number of Chinese economists and former central bank officials argue that the yuan is undervalued – by 25% according to Goldmans - and should strengthen to rebalance the economy away from exports and toward domestic consumption. A controlled appreciation, they say, could help narrow trade imbalances, ease trade tensions, and boost China’s overseas purchasing power.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

0700 – UK Oct Jobs Report
0815 – France Dec Manufacturing and Services PMI
0830 – Germany Dec Manufacturing and Services PMI
0900 – Eurozone Dec Manufacturing and Services PMI
0930 – UK Dec Manufacturing and Services PMI
0900 – Germany Dec ZEW Survey
1330 – US November Jobs Report
1330 – US Oct Retail Sales
1445 – US Dec Manufacturing and Services PMI
Fed speakers: Paulson (1300), Hammack (1330), and Goolsbee (1535)

Earnings events

• Today: Lennar
• Wednesday: Micron, Jabil, General Mills
• Thursday: Accenture, Nike, Cintas, Fedex, Heico, Darden Restaurants
• Friday: Paychex

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• USA: U.S. stocks slip again as the tech sell-off lingers ahead of a heavy macro week. The S&P 500 falls 0.2% to 6,816.51, the Dow dips 0.1% to 48,416.56, and the Nasdaq ends down 0.6% at 23,057.41. ServiceNow drops 11.5% on talk it may buy cybersecurity firm Armis, while Tesla rises 3.6% after Elon Musk says robotaxis are testing without in-car safety monitors; Costco falls 2.7% after a downgrade and iRobot plunges 72.7% on a Chapter 11 plan to hand control to its main Chinese supplier. Nasdaq also plans to ask the Securities and Exchange Commission to allow 23-hour weekday trading, as investors watch delayed U.S. jobs and inflation data for the next rate cue.
• Europe: European equities rebound as investors rotate back into cyclicals ahead of a packed central bank week. The Euro STOXX 50 rises 0.6% to 5,742.52, the STOXX Europe 600 climbs 0.7% to 582.54, and the UK’s blue-chip index gains 1.1%, while defence names lag as peace-talk headlines resurface. Rheinmetall falls 6.6% as the defence theme cools, but Ferrexpo jumps 6.2% on hopes the conflict could move toward talks. Attention now turns to the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England meetings, plus delayed U.S. data.
• Asia: Asian markets trade heavy as artificial intelligence (AI) profit worries spread and China data disappoint. Japan’s Nikkei 225 drops 1.3% to 50,168.11, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng falls 1.3% to 25,628.88, and China’s Shanghai Composite slips 0.6% to 3,867.92, while Korea’s Kospi loses 1.8% to 4,090.59. Samsung Electronics sinks 3.8% and SK Hynix slides 3.0% as chip sentiment cools, while China Vanke falls 5.0% in Hong Kong on renewed default fears; Korea Zinc climbs 4.9% on talk of a U.S. critical minerals project. Investors next watch central bank meetings and whether China adds stronger support for consumption and property.

Volatility

• Volatility is still contained, but it’s nudging higher as markets digest a heavy data slate. The VIX closed at 16.50, while very short-dated gauges stayed lower (VIX1D 12.89; VIX9D 14.20), suggesting investors are alert rather than panicked. What stands out is skew at 161.86, a sign that “crash protection” is still being priced more expensively than the calm headline VIX might imply.
• Today’s main volatility catalysts are the delayed US retail sales report, plus US jobs data and PMIs in the same release window.
• SPX expected move (this week): options pricing implies roughly ±85 points (±1.25%) into Friday (19 Dec) (based on your options snapshot).
• 0DTE skew check (today’s expiry): downside is priced richer than upside, with ~15–20 delta puts carrying higher implied volatility than comparable calls (from your 16 Dec chain screenshot).

Digital Assets

• Crypto is trying to stabilise, but the tone is still fragile. Bitcoin is around $86.5k and ether around $2.94k, with solana ~$127 and xrp ~$1.90 also softer.
• ETF flows remain the clearest “risk appetite” signal: the latest reported day shows IBIT $0m while total US spot bitcoin ETFs were -$357.6m (15 Dec); for ether, ETHA was -$139.1m and total US spot ether ETFs -$224.8m (15 Dec). That backdrop helps explain why crypto-linked equities are seeing heavier pressure, with COIN, MSTR and miners notably weaker on the day.

Fixed Income

• US treasuries firm ahead of key US data, as traders await the November payrolls data and November Retail Sales. The benchmark 2-year treasury yield dipped just below 3.50% amidst widespread weakness in risk sentiment, while the 10-year benchmark only backed off a couple of basis points to the 4.16% level.
• Japanese government bonds remain quiet near the top of the range and ahead of an anticipated Bank of Japan hike this Friday, which would be the first since January 24 of this year. Back then, the benchmark 2-year JGB yield was some 36 basis points lower than its current 1.065% level and the benchmark 10-year JGB yield was some 75 basis points below its current 1.95% level, which is just shy of the highest level traded since 1999 – the 2.015% from 2006.
• US High Yield credit spreads have widened modestly amidst weak risk appetite in US equities, with the Bloomberg measure of high yield spreads to US treasuries widening only a basis point yesterday and thirteen basis points in all from the lows earlier this month, currently at 276 basis points.

Commodities

• WTI slid below USD 57 a barrel, its lowest since February 2021, while Brent tests USD 60 amid renewed optimism over a Ukraine peace deal after the US offered stronger security guarantees to Kyiv, a move seen as increasing pressure on President Zelenskiy over territory. Any settlement could ease curbs on Russian oil flows in an already well-supplied market, partly offset by mixed Chinese data.
• Gold steadied after five days of gains, silver retreated after again meeting resistance above USD 64, while platinum continued to play catch-up, rallying above USD 1,800 to a fresh 14-year high. Traders now await US data for clues on the Fed’s appetite for further cuts amid conflicting 2026 signals, though strong year-to-date gains may encourage some position trimming ahead of year-end.
• Soybean futures fell to a six-week low as traders removed the remaining China “hope” premium built after the 30 October Trump–Xi meeting. China has so far bought only around 30% of what the White House expected, triggering accelerated long liquidation from speculators who held a record net long just a month ago.

Currencies

• US dollar traders seem almost to be holding their collective breath ahead of key US data today (November jobs report and November Retail Sales) as volatility remains low after an the initial weakening off the back of the FOMC meeting last Wednesday. EURUSD probed to a minor new high since September above 1.1760 late Monday, but dipped back toward the 1.1750 area in the Asian session.
• The JPY firmed slightly again, with USDJPY testing below 155.00 at times and eyeing the important 154.50 recent range lows, while EURJPY dipped below 182.00 in Tokyo’s Tuesday session before stabilizing near that level – this after running as high as 183.00 late Friday.
• Sterling is wobbling ahead of the Bank of England meeting on Thursday, as EURGBP poked above 0.8790 for the first time in nearly two weeks in early European trading Tuesday.

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