Investment and Options Strategist
Markets recovered strongly from earlier losses as President Trump softened tariff rhetoric and corporate earnings from Tesla, Alphabet, and others beat expectations. Volatility declined sharply, cryptocurrencies remained resilient, and bond yields signaled expectations for Fed rate cuts.
Markets opened the week weakly on April 21 after Trump pressured the Fed to cut rates, with the S&P 500 down -2.36% and Nasdaq 100 down -2.58% (April 21). Sentiment reversed sharply by April 22 as Tesla (+5.1%) and 3M (+8.1%) led gains, helping the S&P 500 rally +2.51% (April 22). The rally continued with SAP (+10.6%) boosting European markets on April 23. Alphabet (+5%) and Nvidia (+1.1%) lifted tech sentiment after earnings on April 24, while Intel fell -5.7% on weak forecasts.
The VIX surged early in the week, reflecting fears over Fed independence (April 21), but reversed sharply lower as optimism over trade developments improved. It closed at 26.47 on April 25, down nearly 7% from the day prior, while VIX1D and VIX9D indicators also moderated.
Bitcoin hovered around $93,387 on April 22 and stabilized near $93,350 by April 25. Ethereum followed a similar pattern. Sentiment improved after Strategy’s $555 million Bitcoin purchase and continued institutional ETF inflows. Crypto-related equities like Coinbase (+5%) showed resilience.
Bond yields were initially volatile, with the US 10-year rising to 4.42% (April 21) before easing to 4.3% by April 25. Fed speakers suggested a willingness to cut rates if tariffs hurt the jobs market. The 2s10s curve flattened slightly as the market priced in more aggressive easing.
Gold surged to a record near $3,500 early in the week before correcting to below $3,300 (April 25) amid improved risk appetite. Crude oil swung with OPEC+ tensions but rebounded later in the week as China reiterated economic support. Natural gas tumbled 7.5% on storage build and mild weather.
The USD initially weakened but recovered as risk sentiment improved. EURUSD tested 1.14 but fell back toward 1.13 by April 25. USDJPY rose above 143.60 before finding resistance. Markets remained highly sensitive to tariff news and Fed policy expectations.
Markets will be driven by earnings heavyweights and crucial macro data, with volatility likely around jobs and inflation reports.
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