Nvidia earnings: can it keep the crown?

Key takeaways

• Nvidia’s print is a market event, not just a stock
• Results hinge on data-center demand, Blackwell timing, and China sales rebound
• Keep it simple: price the business, not the buzz. Guard your position size

A strong compounder, but the AI bar is high

Nvidia reports its quarterly earnings results tomorrow, Wednesday, 27 August, after U.S. close. Expectations are high after a rapid run in AI spending. Consensus sees about USD 46 billion in revenue and USD 1.00 in EPS, both up 50%+ year on year. Some forecasts are higher—near USD 48 billion and USD 1.06. Analyst stance is strong: roughly 9 in 10 rate it a ‘Buy’. The average 12-month target price sits around USD 190–220, with some calls near USD 240.

Nvidia is now the largest weight in the S&P 500 at roughly 8.0%, so its guidance can sway broad portfolios. Options markets flag elevated implied volatility around the print—a familiar pattern for Nvidia. Long-term holders should focus on durability of demand, margins, and execution on new products rather than the hour-to-hour tape.

The possible scenarios:

• Base: solid data-center growth. Blackwell on schedule. Margins steady. Market reaction: calm to positive.
• Bull: bigger orders and faster Blackwell. Stronger margins. Market reaction: AI winners rally.
• Bear: China or timing disappoints. Margins soften. Market reaction: de-risking across chips and cloud.

Why this print moves markets 

Nvidia has become the heartbeat of the AI trade. Its chips and networking gear power cloud training and inference at companies like Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta. When Nvidia guides up, confidence ripples across semis, equipment, memory, and the hyperscalers. When it wobbles, the air comes out of the whole complex. For retail investors holding broad ETFs, Nvidia’s weight means index returns lean on this single name more than usual. That concentration raises both upside torque and downside risk—exactly why position sizing and time horizon matter more than guessing the headline EPS. Either way, the lesson is the same: own great businesses at sensible sizes and let compounding work.

What to watch

Investor playbook

• Anchor to market reality. Use peer comps, fresh IPO/separation prints, and precedents to sanity-check multiples.
• Set guardrails. Define a max position size, a valuation ceiling, and a rough time-to-thesis.
• Avoid heroics. Long-term holders do not need to trade the print to win the decade.
• Know your look-through. Check your ETF weight in NVDA and key suppliers before the call.

One night, big echo: what’s next

Nvidia’s results will test whether AI demand stays intense and whether the firm can extend its lead as Blackwell ships. The main drivers are hyperscaler orders and execution on new platforms; the key risks are policy shifts around China and a margin slip as supply loosens. Over the next few weeks, watch shipment timing, gross-margin guidance, and any colour on future product cadence. Own great businesses at sensible sizes, let time do the lifting—and never mistake a loud quarter for a lasting edge.