Investing beyond AI: Five future growth frontiers

Key points:

• The next wave of growth isn’t just AI: Five frontier themes are moving closer to commercial scale - robotaxis, drones/urban air mobility, space infrastructure, quantum technologies, and advanced nuclear. Each has potential to reshape industries and open new value chains.
• Opportunities exist across the ecosystem: From platform operators and hardware suppliers to infrastructure enablers. Illustrative examples range from Waymo/Alphabet, Joby Aviation, Rocket Lab, and IonQ to Constellation Energy and Cameco.
• Risks remain significant and uneven: Regulation, long timelines, capital intensity, and geopolitics mean investors should treat these as long-term, high-uncertainty exposures, best approached with selective sizing and diversification.

Investors are asking: what’s next after semiconductors and AI?

We see five frontiers that are moving from science fiction toward commercial scale. Each comes with opportunities along the value chain, but also with real risks that investors must weigh carefully.

1. Robotaxis and autonomous mobility

After years of skepticism, autonomous vehicle (AV) projects are now reaching commercial scale. Waymo is expanding its ride-hailing service in U.S. cities, while Cruise, Mobileye, and Aurora Innovation are advancing trials. Singapore and Dubai have also approved public pilot projects, signaling regulatory momentum.

Investor perspective:

• Execution milestones: The commercial viability of robotaxis will depend on regulatory approvals, expansion into new cities, and integration with existing transport networks. Investors should monitor how many daily rides operators achieve and whether cost per mile falls toward profitable levels.
• Trust and safety: Public perception and accident records will directly impact adoption. A few high-profile incidents could slow momentum or trigger new restrictions.
• Economics: AV fleets require heavy upfront capex (vehicles, charging, maintenance depots). Unit economics will be more favorable in dense urban centers than in suburban or rural areas.
• Competitive landscape: Established platforms (Uber, Lyft) may benefit from integrating third-party autonomy, while startups may struggle with funding needs. Chinese players like Pony.ai and WeRide face additional geopolitical and capital-intensity risks.

Where to look (illustrative examples):

• Platform operators: Alphabet (GOOGL) via Waymo, Uber (UBER), Lyft (LYFT).
• Technology enablers: Aurora Innovation (AUR), Innoviz (INVZ), Mobileye (MBLY).
• Infrastructure providers: Blink Charging (BLNK).
• Regional challengers: Pony.ai (PONY), WeRide (WRD).

Risks: Regulatory setbacks after accidents, unclear liability frameworks, consumer trust, and whether ride economics stack up outside dense urban centers. For Pony and WeRide specifically, risks include heavy capital intensity, ongoing losses, and geopolitical sensitivities given their China base.

2. Drones and urban air mobility

Commercial drones are moving into logistics, agriculture, and defense, while urban air mobility (UAM) companies are testing electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircraft as the next stage in transport innovation.

Investor perspective:

• Certification hurdles: FAA type certification is crucial. Without it, commercial rollout won’t be possible.
• Revenue visibility: Defense-linked drone makers like AeroVironment or Kratos may see steadier cash flow compared to eVTOL startups.
• Urban adoption challenges: Battery range, noise, and airspace integration may slow real-world use.
• Funding requirements: Pure-play eVTOL firms burn significant cash and may face dilution if timelines extend.

Where to look (illustrative examples):

• Air taxi developers: Joby Aviation (JOBY), Archer Aviation (ACHR).
• eVTOL entrants: Lilium (LILM) and EHang (EH) are both working on air taxis in Europe and China.
• Defense & commercial drones: AeroVironment (AVAV), Kratos Defense (KTOS).
• Connectivity providers: Ondas Holdings (ONDS).

Risks: Delays in certification, public resistance in cities, battery performance issues, high cash burn, and reliance on defense budgets for contracts.

3. Space infrastructure and services

The global space economy has already surpassed $600 billion and could triple by 2035. Cheaper launch services and miniaturized satellites are opening opportunities in Earth observation, broadband connectivity, and in-orbit servicing.

Investor perspective:

• Capital intensity: Large upfront costs mean only well-capitalized players can scale.
• Schedule risk: Launch and satellite timelines often slip, impacting revenues.
• Government reliance: Contracts depend heavily on national space budgets and geopolitical priorities.
• Emerging segments: Growth is strongest in data-driven services such as analytics and communications, not just rockets.

Where to look (illustrative examples):

• Launch providers: Rocket Lab (RKLB).
• Satellite analytics: Planet Labs (PL).
• Broadband constellations: Telesat (TSAT).
• Lunar services: Intuitive Machines (LUNR).
• Prime contractors: Lockheed Martin (LMT).

Risks: Capital-intensive projects, frequent delays, reliance on government contracts, and orbital congestion (risk of collisions and tighter regulation).

4. Quantum technologies

Quantum is being positioned as the next computing leap. While practical quantum computing is years away, near-term opportunities lie in quantum sensing and post-quantum cybersecurity. Governments are committing tens of billions in funding, highlighting its strategic importance.

Investor perspective:

• Timelines & uncertainty: Competing hardware approaches make it unclear which technology will win out.
• Funding vs. revenues: Many firms are pre-revenue and dependent on external financing.
• Ecosystem growth: Partnerships with corporates and governments may drive adoption before profitability.
• Speculative nature: Potential rewards are huge, but exposure should be sized modestly given uncertainty.

Where to look (illustrative examples):

• Computing pioneers: IonQ (IONQ), Rigetti Computing (RGTI).
• Industrial joint ventures: Honeywell (HON) via Quantinuum.
• Tech majors: Alphabet (GOOGL), IBM (IBM).

Risks: Long and uncertain commercialization timelines, heavy reliance on funding, volatile valuations tied to hype cycles, and execution challenges in scaling qubits.

5. Advanced nuclear & energy infrastructure

Electrification, data centers, and climate goals are pushing utilities into record spending on grid upgrades. At the same time, advanced nuclear and small modular reactors (SMRs) are gaining traction as policymakers search for reliable, carbon-free baseload power.

Investor perspective:

• Grid demand: Utilities are increasing capex on transmission and reliability to meet surging demand.
• Nuclear’s role: Advanced designs aim to overcome cost and time overruns that plagued traditional reactors.
• Fuel bottlenecks: HALEU supply chains must scale before SMRs become viable.
• Infrastructure angle: Engineering and construction firms benefit from long project pipelines, regardless of nuclear rollout speed.

Where to look (illustrative examples):

• Utilities/operators: Constellation Energy (CEG), NextEra Energy (NEE), Duke Energy (DUK), Dominion Energy (D).
• Fuel & components: Cameco (CCJ), BWX Technologies (BWXT). Kazatomprom (KAP.LN) is the world’s largest uranium producer, headquartered in Kazakhstan.
• Engineering & infrastructure: Rolls-Royce (RR.LN) is developing small modular reactors; Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011 JP) has advanced nuclear expertise. Siemens Energy (ENR GY), ABB (ABBN SW) are the leaders in transmission and grid modernization.

Risks: Cost overruns, delays, public opposition, regulatory hurdles, and fuel supply constraints. Permitting challenges may also slow grid expansion.

Conclusion: Building portfolios around future frontiers

Investors looking beyond semis and AI should think in ecosystems, not just headline technologies. Each theme has a wide value chain, from hardware suppliers to infrastructure operators, that will see uneven winners and losers. Risks are significant, but so are the potential rewards for patient capital.