Trump and Republican victories spark commodity decline amid tariff and growth concerns

Overnight trading saw widespread losses across the commodities sector, with the Bloomberg Commodity Index losing close to one percent as traders began pricing in the likelihood of the mentioned “Trump 2.0” scenario. This scenario is expected to bring about the promised tariffs on imported goods, particularly targeting China, potentially triggering a new wave of trade tensions and economic disruptions.

Reflecting these expectations, industrial metals experienced some of the largest declines, led by copper and iron ore, which are highly sensitive to trade dynamics and industrial demand. Furthermore copper has also been impacted by fears over a slowdown in the energy transition after Trump said he would "rescind all unspent funds" under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), the Biden-Harris administration's signature climate law.

Agricultural commodities were also hit, with grain prices, particularly soybeans, trading lower. This reflects fears that China could respond with retaliatory measures, potentially reducing US exports of key crops and creating downward pressure on prices. China, as one of the largest buyers of US soybeans, is a crucial market for American farmers, and any disruption to this trade flow could have significant implications for the agricultural sector.

Crude oil has also moved lower, pressured by the possibility that a tit-for-tat global trade war could dampen demand and add strain to an already weak market outlook projected for 2025. This anticipated decline in demand for oil and related products stems from concerns that an increase in tariffs may slow global economic growth, thereby lowering demand for energy. The geopolitical landscape will also attract close attention, especially the US-Russia relations, the Russia-Ukraine war, and the Middle East, where a Trump administration may tighten sanctions on Iranian oil flows.

Gold prices temporarily broke lower before finding support ahead of USD 2,700, weighed down by ongoing US dollar strength as markets consider the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) potential response to inflation risks. With fears that tariffs and fiscal policies could rekindle inflationary pressures, there is growing concern that the FOMC may adopt a more cautious approach to cutting interest rates.

Overall, the election results reinforce our bullish outlook on safe-haven metals, as the heightened market volatility and uncertainty could drive increased demand for these assets. However, near-term risks remain, as late-entry long positions in these metals may be vulnerable to selling pressure as the dollar strengthens and Treasury yields climb. Additionally, silver is worth watching as a potential driver of gold prices after the metal suffered a technical breakdown, reflecting the overall weakness seen across industrial metals.