Countdown to Mar-a-Lago Accord just begun?

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Today's slide deck for the podcast.

Today’s links

My FX Update from today, wondering if both CHF and GBP can fall, if for very different reasons - sterling for structural reasons, and the Swiss franc as it is singled out by the Trump administration.

With Trump’s appointment of Stephen Miran to the Fed, time to re-read the original piece he wrote that went viral across hedge funds and among the commentariat: A User’s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System, reminding everyone the scale of what could be under way, who knows even something resembling a “Mar a Lago Accord”. Is Miran’s appointment to the Fed a step in the direction of getting the US Treasury and Fed on the same page to mobilize a massive initiative to further upend the global trading system and the US dollar’s place in it, now that the tariffs are largely in place?

A reminder for those who aren’t to follow Michael Every’s daily geopolitical updates on X, like the excellent one from today.

ChatGPT 5.0 is out and this is a major upgrade with considerable new possibilities - the OpenAI team runs you through what you can do with it.

For those wondering whether the US economy risks a recession, worth having a look here and considering that for many Americans, it is already in a depression.

 

Chart of the Day - Novo Nordisk

A bit of relief for the beleaguered Novo stock yesterday, as Eli Lilly’s announced that its pill-form obesity drug didn’t perform as well as some hoped in trials. The pill-game for obesity treatment seems to be the next one for both companies, and Novo claims that its pill may be the best in class once released next year. Its stock has cratered as the market reassessed its competitiveness in the market for injectable obesity treatments and potential growth path. While the stock is up well over 10% from the lows this week, it is useful to zoom out to a weekly chart and, oh my goodness, there is a lot of damage done from the highs above DKK 1,000 per share. To even get started on any climb back higher, the stock needs to quickly erase that massive sell-off bar last week from 464 to 308. At 325 currently, some very heavy lifting indeed required.