Saxo-Market-Call_Platform_1920x1280_Test 5

Market complacent ahead of US jobs data. Is the US set to revalue its gold holdings?

Podcast 25 minutes to read
Saxo Logo
Saxo Market Call

Summary:  Today - a look at the market remaining in complacency mode, boosted by a drop in yields and later by Broadcom's apparent coming collaboration with OpenAI on new chips. Also, new geopolitical developments, speculating on coming Trump announcement later today (including on a possible revaluation of US gold reserves), earnings coming up next week, the US jobs data today, a general sense of foreboding that something big is about to happen to this market, and much more. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.


Listen to the full episode now or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app.

Macro Calendar for the week ahead

As promised on today's pod, please see highlights of the macro calendar event risks for the week ahead: 

05_09_2025_MacroCalendar

Today’s links

China’s mercantilist model - it has run out of road.
This great piece looks at how China’s mercantilist model has not only helped drive the increasingly adversarial relationship with the US, but is possibly also untenable for many emerging markets as well Can China ever rebalance its economy, or is the CCP DNA incapable of this shift?

On the why of the US revaluing its gold reserves
Kitco article runs through some of the rationale for the US to revalue its gold holdings from USD 42 per ounce to the current market price - which would put its value at close to USD 900 billion. This could seed a massive fund for national priorities and impact long interest rates among other impacts. The Fed itself recently issued a paper on doing the same, essentially providing a roadmap for revaluing US gold reserves to create liquidity/funds and without selling the underlying assets.

Downtime link for the weekend: boost your brain and take a sound bath.
FT article (Sorry, paywall) discussing Why Beethoven is good for your brain. The article quotes noted author and neurologist Oliver Sacks in claiming that an anatomist can easily differentiate the brain of a professional musician from all other brain types. His book Musicophilia is now on my reading list after reading this article. That reminded me of a recent Conan O’Brien Needs a Friend podcast episode with a “sonic shaman” Koko T. Bear. It all sounds absurd until you start to listen the example “soundbath” the guy makes. Definitely something I will be pursuing for downtime in the future - sans the distracting podcasters comments, of course. BTW, a couple of my favorite piano pieces are Scriabin’s Etude, opus 8 # 12. I first heard Horowitz’s standard-setting version - the dynamic shifts from almost destroying the piano with his endless power to sudden pianissimo are amazing. I was blown away when looking for these clips on YouTube to discover that there is an incredible recording of Scriabin himself playing the Etude: pre-1915 as that was the year he died!. That insanely talented composer had an interesting brain for sure, as he experienced visual phenomena whenever he heard music, a case of synesthesia. BTW - a more up-to-date version for better audio is the one of teenager Yevgeny Kissin, no slouch himself.

Chart of the Day - American Eagle Outfitters (AEO)

With perfect hindsight, this one should have been a slam dunk for at least a quarter - the viral advertising campaign and MAGA adopting the model/actor as one of their own due to her registration as a Republican (she never explicitly was out voicing support of Trump/Republican polities) likely drove a better than expected results, even if sales did slip slightly. As with Macy’s profiled yesterday, it doesn’t take much of a beat to juice the share price when expectations are low.

05_09_2025_AEO
Source: Saxo

Questions and comments, please!

We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.

This content is marketing material and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.

The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.

Outrageous Predictions 2026

01 /

  • Executive Summary: Outrageous Predictions 2026

    Outrageous Predictions

    Executive Summary: Outrageous Predictions 2026

    Saxo Group

    Read Saxo's Outrageous Predictions for 2026, our latest batch of low probability, but high impact ev...
  • A Fortune 500 company names an AI model as CEO

    Outrageous Predictions

    A Fortune 500 company names an AI model as CEO

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Can AI be trusted to take over in the boardroom? With the right algorithms and balanced human oversi...
  • Dollar dominance challenged by Beijing’s golden yuan

    Outrageous Predictions

    Dollar dominance challenged by Beijing’s golden yuan

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Beijing does an end-run around the US dollar, setting up a framework for settling trade in a neutral...
  • Obesity drugs for everyone – even for pets

    Outrageous Predictions

    Obesity drugs for everyone – even for pets

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

    The availability of GLP-1 drugs in pill form makes them ubiquitous, shrinking waistlines, even for p...
  • Dumb AI triggers trillion-dollar clean-up

    Outrageous Predictions

    Dumb AI triggers trillion-dollar clean-up

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

    Agentic AI systems are deployed across all sectors, and after a solid start, mistakes trigger a tril...
  • Quantum leap Q-Day arrives early, crashing crypto and destabilizing world finance

    Outrageous Predictions

    Quantum leap Q-Day arrives early, crashing crypto and destabilizing world finance

    Neil Wilson

    Investor Content Strategist

    A quantum computer cracks today’s digital security, bringing enough chaos with it that Bitcoin crash...
  • Taylor Swift-Kelce wedding spikes global growth

    Outrageous Predictions

    Taylor Swift-Kelce wedding spikes global growth

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    Next year’s most anticipated wedding inspires Gen Z to drop the doomscrolling and dial up the real w...
  • SpaceX announces an IPO, supercharging extraterrestrial markets

    Outrageous Predictions

    SpaceX announces an IPO, supercharging extraterrestrial markets

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    Financial markets go into orbit, to the moon and beyond as SpaceX expands rocket launches by orders-...
  • Britain’s Great EU Backdoor Return

    Outrageous Predictions

    Britain’s Great EU Backdoor Return

    Neil Wilson

    Investor Content Strategist

    Faced with rolling fiscal, economic, trade and political crises the UK government sneaks back into t...
  • Despite concerns, U.S. 2026 mid-term elections proceed smoothly

    Outrageous Predictions

    Despite concerns, U.S. 2026 mid-term elections proceed smoothly

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    In spite of outstanding threats to the American democratic process, the US midterms come and go cord...

None of the information provided on this website constitutes an offer, solicitation, or endorsement to buy or sell any financial instrument, nor is it financial, investment, or trading advice. Saxo Capital Markets UK Ltd. (Saxo) and the Saxo Bank Group provides execution-only services, with all trades and investments based on self-directed decisions. Analysis, research, and educational content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered advice nor a recommendation. Access and use of this website is subject to: (i) the Terms of Use; (ii) the full Disclaimer; (iii) the Risk Warning; and (iv) any other notice or terms applying to Saxo’s news and research.

Saxo’s content may reflect the personal views of the author, which are subject to change without notice. Mentions of specific financial products are for illustrative purposes only and may serve to clarify financial literacy topics. Content classified as investment research is marketing material and does not meet legal requirements for independent research.

Before making any investment decisions, you should assess your own financial situation, needs, and objectives, and consider seeking independent professional advice. Saxo does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information provided and assumes no liability for any errors, omissions, losses, or damages resulting from the use of this information.

Please refer to our full disclaimer for more details. Past Performance is not indicative of future results.

Saxo
40 Bank Street, 26th floor
E14 5DA
London
United Kingdom

Contact Saxo

Select region

United Kingdom
United Kingdom

Trade Responsibly
All trading carries risk. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more
Additional Key Information Documents are available in our trading platform.

Saxo is a registered Trading Name of Saxo Capital Markets UK Ltd (‘Saxo’). Saxo is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, Firm Reference Number 551422. Registered address: 26th Floor, 40 Bank Street, Canary Wharf, London E14 5DA. Company number 7413871. Registered in England & Wales.

This website, including the information and materials contained in it, are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in the United States, Belgium or any other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation.

It is important that you understand that with investments, your capital is at risk. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. It is your responsibility to ensure that you make an informed decision about whether or not to invest with us. If you are still unsure if investing is right for you, please seek independent advice. Saxo assumes no liability for any loss sustained from trading in accordance with a recommendation.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Android is a trademark of Google Inc.

©   since 1992