Asia Market Quick Take – 28 September, 2026

Asia Market Quick Take – 28 September, 2026 

Key points:  

• Macro: Trump rejects Iran’s plan to reopen Straits of Hormuz 
• Equities: Dow snaps 3 day losing streak – Up 0.9% 
• FX: CNY — biggest weekly loss since June and Yen slipped, trimming Friday’s gains 
• Commodities: Gold under selling pressure from rising real yields 
• Fixed income: 10-year Treasury yield at 5.20% and 30 year above 5.5% 

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.  

 Macro: 

• Trump rejected Iran’s plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, raising fears of longer oil disruptions. Iran says it is waiting for a clear US response and won’t ease its terms. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia intercepted Houthi drones near Riyadh and a missile near Khamis Mushait, with alerts in Abha and Jazan, where Aramco operates.
• The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index rose slightly to 48.1 in September 2026 but stayed very weak. Personal finance views deteriorated, price and fuel worries increased, the business outlook worsened, and sentiment fell across parties. Year-ahead inflation expectations climbed to 4.6% and five-year to 3.4%.
• US durable goods orders were flat at $338.6 billion in August 2026 versus expectations for a 0.4% drop. Transportation and fabricated metals fell, while defense aircraft, computers, primary metals, electrical equipment, and machinery rose. Ex-transportation, orders rose 0.3%, and core capital goods (non-defense ex-aircraft) climbed 1.6%.
• China weighs allowing ByteDance and Alibaba to buy Nvidia’s new RTX Pro 5500 chips.

Equities:  

• US — US equities closed Friday 25 September on a positive note, with the Dow (+0.9% to 51,829) snapping a three-session losing streak, while the S&P 500 (+0.5% to 7,743) and Nasdaq (+0.5% to 27,069) also gained. The week was driven by a powerful semiconductor rally: AMD surged 10% on Monday to top $1 trillion in market cap, Intel and Arm Holdings rose 12% and 17% respectively, and Meta soared 11% after its Muse AI agent became the most-downloaded app on the US Apple App Store. McDonald's continued its slide, now down ~31% from its February high after guiding for "slightly negative" US same-store sales. US equity futures are edging lower in early Monday Asian trade as Middle East tensions resurface.
• EU — The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.5% last week, snapping a three-week losing streak, though the index remains well below its highs. The weekly trading range of just 1.6% was among the tightest in five years, with buyers defending the 100-day moving average near 639 while the 50-day at 648 capped the recovery. Elevated crude prices and rising rates continued to weigh on sentiment, limiting the upside for European equities heading into the new week.
• Asia — The Kospi reopened after the Chuseok holiday with a modest decline of 0.3% to 7,046, tracking weakness in S&P 500 futures. The Bank of Korea held a market review meeting, flagging a significant rise in global bond yields during the holiday period. The Nikkei is slightly higher, supported by a broadly constructive risk backdrop in Japan, with the index last at 66,364. The Hang Seng (24,510) faces headwinds from the cool market reception to the Trump-Xi summit, with the Chinese yuan posting its biggest weekly loss since June. The Straits Times Index stands at 5,711. In Australia, the ASX 200 fell 0.4% on Friday, with Northern Star Resources surging 9.9% after rejecting a Gold Fields takeover offer, while Karoon Energy plunged 11% after cutting its Brazil production forecast.

Earnings and events this week:

• Monday: Jefferies. Shein
• Tuesday: Carnival, RBA rate decision
• Wednesday:  Micron Technology — Q4 FY2026 results (widely watched for AI/semiconductor demand signals), Factset
• Thursday: Nike
• Friday: No major earnings expected; focus shifts to the September Non-Farm Payrolls report.

FX:

• The dollar wrapped up its best two-week stretch since March, with the WSJ Dollar Index rising 0.63% last week to 96.70 — its largest two-week gain since March 2026. Morgan Stanley abandoned its long-held bearish dollar call, now forecasting continued dollar strength through year-end on widening rate differentials.
• USDJPY is edging higher in early Monday trade on rising oil prices, but the yen remains supported near-term. PM Takaichi's remarks that a weak yen is "problematic" represent a meaningful shift in stance, and traders are now most bullish on the yen in three weeks. One-month USD/JPY risk reversals are at 2.50% in favour of yen puts, the most skewed in weeks.
• The Chinese yuan suffered its largest weekly decline since June as US dollar strength persisted and the Trump-Xi summit failed to deliver meaningful positive catalysts. Onshore equities also ended the week lower.
• AUDUSD slipped 0.2% to 0.7010 in early Monday trade, having fallen 1.4% last week, as hopes for a Strait of Hormuz diplomatic breakthrough faded. The kiwi also edged lower on subdued risk sentiment.

Commodities: 

• Brent crude climbed 1.5% to approximately $105.90 per barrel in early Monday trade after Trump rejected Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's insistence on its seven-day conditions with no softening has reignited supply disruption fears and is adding to inflation concerns globally.
• Gold fell to $4,228, lowest since 6 August after a weekly drop of over 2%, as the Strait of Hormuz impasse kept energy costs elevated and sustained pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise rates to combat sticky inflation.

Fixed income:

• The 10-year Treasury yield rose 4bps to 5.20% in early Monday trade, pushed higher by the renewed Hormuz tensions and oil price spike adding to inflation concerns. The 30-year yield reached 5.53% last week — its highest since 2004 — while the TLT ETF hit a record low. The ICE BofA MOVE Index surged approximately 30% last week, its biggest jump since Liberation Day in April 2025.
• IG corporate dollar bond yields from Asia and the US retreated slightly from multi-year highs last week, though spreads widened in both markets. Emerging market investors are dialling back their riskiest bond bets as the global rates selloff deepens, with EM high-yield under particular pressure as US yields soar.

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