Asia Market Quick Take – November 7, 2025

Asia Market Quick Take – November 7, 2025

Key points:

• Macro: Challenger job cuts spikes to 153k vs prev month of 54k
• Equities: Equities sell off due to cooling markets and stretched AI valuations
• FX: USD and yields fall due to cooling jobs data
• Commodities: Oil on track to close lower 2^nd week in a row
• Fixed income: Treasuries rally on soft jobs data

------------------------------------------------------------------

Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

• US job cuts reached 153,074 in October, the month's highest since 2003, up from 54,064 in September. Major layoffs hit warehousing, tech, food, and government sectors due to AI adoption and rising costs. Year-to-date layoffs totaled 1,099,500, a 44% rise from 2024, mostly in government and tech sectors with 307,638 and 141,159 cuts.
• The Bank of England's MPC voted 5–4 to keep the Bank Rate at 4% on 5 November, as expected. Four members favored a 25 bps cut. CPI inflation has peaked, and disinflation is aided by restrictive policy and softer pay growth. The subdued economy and labor slack reinforce disinflation. Risks to the 2% inflation target are more balanced, with future rate changes depending on data. Gradual rate reductions may occur if disinflation persists.
• Euro Area retail sales fell by 0.10% month-on-month. Historically, retail sales have averaged a monthly change of 0.10% from 1995 to 2025, peaking at 19.30% in May 2020 and hitting a low of -11.30% in April 2020.
• Norges Bank kept its policy rate at 4%, after a prior 25 basis-point cut, aligning with expectations. No changes in the economic outlook have occurred since September. Future rate cuts are possible if projections hold. Despite cooling the economy, inflation remains above target at 3%, with rising unemployment. A restrictive stance remains necessary to control inflation.
• Switzerland's non-seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 2.9% from 2.8%, the highest since March, with unemployed individuals increasing by 2,000 to 135,200. Youth unemployment fell to 3.1% from 3.2%, with 13,500 unemployed. Job vacancies decreased by 2,400 to 35,000. The seasonally adjusted jobless rate remained at 3.0%.

Equities: 

• US - US stocks fell sharply on Thursday: S&P 500 dropped 1%, Nasdaq 1.7%, and Dow Jones 317 points due to pressure on AI and tech shares. Concerns over AI valuations affected Qualcomm (-4.5%), Tesla (-2.8%), AMD (-7%), Oracle (-2.6%), Palantir (-6.8%), Nvidia (-3.8%), Microsoft (-1.8%), Amazon (-2.3%), and Meta (-2.7%). Labor-market cooling fears and a government shutdown limiting official data heightened risk aversion.
• Europe - European stocks fell sharply Thursday: STOXX 50 dropped 1% to 5,613, STOXX 600 fell 0.7% to 567. Commerzbank slid 2% after a profit drop. Diageo fell 6.5%, Maersk 5.1%, and Rheinmetall 0.5% despite positive news. DHL rose 5.4%, AstraZeneca gained 2.9%, and Sainsbury's increased 1.4% on raised outlooks.
• Hong Kong - HSI rose 550 points, or 2.1%, to 26,486 on Thursday, its strongest since mid-August. Gains were driven by optimism over China's tech self-sufficiency push and positive U.S. data. SMIC (7.3%), Horizon Robotics (3.2%), and Trip.com (2.5%) led gains, with Cathay Pacific surging 4%. Hong Kong markets are poised for gains following a U.S.–China trade truce extension. Traders await China's October trade and inflation data.
• Singapore - The Straits Times Index increased 56 points, or 1.3%, to 4,473 on Thursday, bouncing back after losses. Sentiment improved with Wall Street's rally on strong U.S. data. Singapore's retail sales grew for the seventh month in September. The Monetary Authority of Singapore kept its policy unchanged. Gains were tempered by caution over upcoming Chinese data. Retail, manufacturing, and financials led gains; DBS Group (3.6%), OCBC (1.1%), Singapore Telecommunications (4%), Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (3.6%), and SIA Engineering (4.5%) advanced.

Earnings this week:

Friday

Asia: Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, OCBC, Honda, Macquarie, Fujikura
Outside Asia: Constellation Energy, KKR

FX:

• The dollar and Treasury yields fell on cooling US jobs data; the BoE held rates as expected, briefly slowing sterling before cable rose 0.7% to 1.3143 on guidance hinting at a December cut, while USDJPY dropped 0.8% to 152.83 and EURUSD rose 0.5% to 1.1550 amid a flatter euro vol skew.
• USDNOK firmed ~0.2% to 10.2021 after Norges Bank’s hold; USDCAD was steady at 1.4107; AUD and NZD consolidated as weak US data underscored cooling labour demand, with NZDUSD near 0.5635 and on track for a 1.5% weekly decline, and Japan’s LDP seeks ~¥1tn a year to support semiconductors and AI.

Commodities:

• Oil headed for a second weekly drop as rising supply stoked glut concerns. WTI neared $60 but stayed on track for about a 2% weekly decline, while Brent settled near $63. OPEC+ output ticked higher as key members restarted flows, adding to increases in Brazil and the US.
• Gold steadied just below $4,000 after paring earlier gains as traders weighed Fed remarks and a report of the most October job cuts in over two decades, boosting rate‑cut prospects and weakening the dollar.
• Aluminium and copper pared gains amid risk‑off after weak US jobs data and Fed commentary; LME aluminium settled 0.2% lower at $2,844.50 a tonne, copper down 0.1%, while zinc rose 0.1%.

Fixed income:

• Treasuries rallied through the US morning, accelerating after Revelio showed a 9,100 October nonfarm job loss alongside soft Challenger data; options were bullish across 5‑ and 10‑year tenors and Fed‑dated OIS turned dovish, adding December cut premium and driving a bull steepening. By day’s end about 16bp—roughly 65% of a 25bp cut—was priced for December versus 14bp Wednesday, while Japan’s Ministry of Finance plans to sell about ¥650bn of debt.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

This content is marketing content and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance. The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.