US Tech 100 NAS

June 23rd outside candle and gap up chimed with a golden cross, with the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) moving above the 200-day line to clear the way for bulls to push on to a record high. The last time we saw this move it kicked off the monster 2023-25 rally. NDX rallied 34% in the year after the last occurrence on March 13th, and analysis going back to 1980 suggests the indicator is a bullish signal. Last week we noted that a wedge & broadening top formation “could see a leg down, but bubble before that to clear 23”. Yesterday’s bearish daily gravestone doji candle with a HOD at 23,043 suggests this may be playing out. Momentum trends are weakening and we see evidence of bearish moves on MACD and RSI, with the breakdown in the latter’s long-term uptrend and divergence between the recent upswing in the price action and downward thrust on the RSI. Key test for bears is at 22,238 should it come – right shoulder of a longer-term Head and Shoulders.

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Following 23 June’s clear upside breach of the 200-day line price action rallied back to early March levels but failed to hold and we have seen a clearer push lower and price action breaking down at the 3 March high at 44,033. The golden cross did form butmomentum looks stretched per the MACD, and the April-Jun rally trendline is now acting as resistance. Next big support line at 42,865/75, where the 50-day SMA meets the 20 May swing high and bang on the 23.6% retracement of the Apr-Jun rally.