Quarterly Outlook
Q3 Investor Outlook: Beyond American shores – why diversification is your strongest ally
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
Investor Content Strategist
The FTSE 100 pulled back early on Friday after hitting a fresh record high in the previous session, down around 0.4% as equity markets pause after a rattling few days that’s seen all-time highs and a reassessment of the trade dynamics. European stock markets were down further, with the DAX off 0.9% after yesterday’s early gains of more than 1% couldn’t be sustained through the session - jitters about tariffs perhaps but also the index has had a very good run. US futures were indicated a touch firmer though.
Eyes are on a potential trade deal between the EU and the US, plus the UK is now looking to persuade Trump to ease steel tariffs as the president lands in Scotland for a golf trip. Trump toured the Fed and toyed with chair Jay Powell, saying he didn’t think it necessary to fire him. UK retail sales rebounded in June after a poor May, but GfK showed consumer confidence falling. After a long series of cuts, the European Central Bank left rates on hold, as expected.
NatWest was the top gainer on the blue chip index after it posted a strong first half with profits up to £2.5bn, EPS up 28% and return on tangible equity a very respectable 18.1%. The bank also announced a 9.5p interim dividend and a £750mn share buyback as it upgraded its income and returns guidance for 2025. It said it expects RoTE to be above 16.5% for the year, above the prior guidance range of 15-16%. Income will be above £16bn for the year, ahead of the previous forecast of £15.2 to £15.7bn.
Rightmove fell almost 2% even as it reported 10% revenue growth and 9% profit growth. There was a bit of weakness in mining stocks to add to the drag. Although there were some decent heavyweight names in the green their gains were modest.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq climbed to record closes on Thursday but the Dow Jones fell as IBM, Honeywell and UnitedHealth all dropped sharply. Gains were held in check by Tesla as the broad market rose just 0.07%, while Intel shed almost 5% as it missed on EPS, but we got tailwinds from Alphabet and a positive underpinning of the AI narrative that is the key to this market, with Nvidia up almost 2%. Small caps fell 1.32% as the US flash manufacturing PMI fell back into contraction. Jobless claims fell sharply and overall services activity picked up but companies are raising prices, pointing to pressure from tariffs.
Tesla ended the day down 8% after reporting an extremely challenging set of quarterly numbers and it warned of more “rough quarters” ahead. I had a look at this in a bit more depth here.
Three big fallers weighed on the Dow as it declined by 0.7%. Honeywell beat on the top and bottom lines and raised guidance ...breakup plans on track but shares were down 6%. IBM fell over 7% as it reported disappointing revenues for its software business, punished despite raising full-year free cash flow guidance.UnitedHealth Group fell another 5% after it revealed it’s facing a Justice Department investigation over its Medicare billing practices.
Jefferies raised its price target on CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks, while Barclays raised its PT on GE Vernova after a bumper quarterly earnings report. ServiceNow also received several PT increases after beating on the top and bottom lines.
More meme? American Eagle Outfitters shares jumped as much as 12% after revealing a new ad campaign featuring the actress Sydney Sweeney. The move in the stock suggested it was moving on more than any uplift in sales implied by the campaign. Thestock ended the day over 4% higher. New meme stocks Kohl’s and Opendoor Technologies both jumped, rising 10% and 8% respectively. GoPro and BeyondMeat dropped back sharply.
Next week is the big one with four more of the Magnificent 7 to report in the shape of Microsoft, Amazon, Apple and Meta. We also hear from Boeing, Starbucks, Visa, UnitedHealth, Spotify, Etsy, Ford, Qualcomm, Mastercard, Riot Platforms, Strategy, AMC, Moderna, Chevron and Exxon Mobil.