Quarterly Outlook
Q3 Investor Outlook: Beyond American shores – why diversification is your strongest ally
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
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Key Stories from the past week: This week’s Trump-Tariff-Target
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Will there ever be a week where actions from Trump’s office aren’t the main driver of markets? The Trump-Tariff-Target this week was copper which saw prices rally strong. Oil moves are old news despite increased production announcement from OPEC. Trade deals continue to be cut, sliced, stamped and signed while markets react accordingly. Nvidia adds another trophy to its shelf achieving the first company to reach a $4 trillion market cap – this supports U.S. equity markets. And Silver caught a bid reaching a 13-year high. More below on this week’s key stories.
The great copper rush
Copper futures surged on Tuesday after Trump puts his tariffs cross hairs on the precious metal. Copper is a vital material for the evolving energy and digital era, while the U.S. imports over 50% of its copper needs from offshore. This has left physical traders scrambling to get shipments stateside before tariffs come into effect.
NY copper surges on 50% tariff threat
Tariff talk
US Tariff negotiations once again took centre stage with the US threatening to impose large tariffs rates on key trading partners, including Japan, South Korea, and Canada. Markets remained fairly unflustered as in usual TACO style, Trump said he was open to additional negotiations and that the deadline was "not 100% firm", indicating he would look favourably on countries offering concessions.
Trump doubles down on using tariffs
All-time highs
The week saw valuations break new all-time highs in several markets including both the S&P500 and Nasdaq 100 as investor risk appetite remained solid despite the current trade uncertainty announced from the White House. The Dax Index was boosted by US/EU trade deal hopes and the UK FTSE100 was aided by gains for global miners.
Nvidia, Nasdaq, Bitcoin all-time highs.
Bitcoin back on topic
Bitcoin has surged to a new all-time high this week flirting with, but not quite breaking the 119k handle. The rally has been driven by institutional buying of ETF assets. The crypto gains are widespread with a host of other tokens also advancing.
Bitcoin sets all-time high
Next week’s economic data includes China Q2 GDP, Monday. EUR July ZEW economic sentiment, US June CPI, Tuesday. US June PPI, Wednesday. EUR June CPI, US June Retail Sales, Philadelphia Fed July Manufacturing Index, Thursday. Michigan July Consumer Sentiment, Friday. Q2 earnings season begins with JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Blackrock, Citigroup on Tuesday. ASML, Johnson & Johnson, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs on Wednesday. Taiwan Semiconductor, Netflix, GE Aerospace, Novartis are due on Thursday. SAAB, American Express, Friday.
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