Morning Brew May 13 2026

Good morning!

We are heading into a long weekend with Ascension Day and the bridge on Friday – Monday will be the next Morning Brew…

Trump is heading to China for the first time in nine years. Trump said he did not think he would need to enlist Chinese President Xi Jinping to resolve the conflict, which has continued to block maritime traffic that normally provides one-fifth of the world's oil supply. Trump is accompanied by the CEOs and top leaders of Nvidia, Tesla, BlackRock, Mastercard, and Visa.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, fighting for his political survival after dozens of his own lawmakers called for him to resign, promised to press ahead with plans to reform the country and warned of chaos and instability if he were to be ousted.

The U.S. Senate on Tuesday confirmed Kevin Warsh to a 14-year term as Federal Reserve governor, marking an important step toward his succeeding Jerome Powell as the U.S. central bank's next leader.

Charu took a look at inflation hedges, providing a great perspective on why the currently high inflation is not only supply-driven. This is important because, from a central bank perspective, there is little sense in fighting supply-driven inflation with higher rates. Inflation hedges: Gold, energy or equities?

US inflation rose to 3.8% YoY in April 2026 (vs. 3.3%, above the 3.7% forecast), driven by the oil shock. Energy surged 17.9%, led by gasoline (+28.4%) and fuel oil (+54.3%). Shelter (3.3%) and food (2.3%) also firmed.

• The latest US inflation print is a reminder that the inflation fight is not over. Headline inflation has moved higher again, driven by energy, food, and services, while core inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s comfort zone.
• Inflation risk is changing shape. This is no longer just about post-pandemic supply chains. Energy security, electrification, AI infrastructure spending, geopolitics, and resource scarcity are becoming more structural sources of price pressure.
• Investors may need to rethink what “defensive” means. Bonds can still play a role, but in an inflation shock they may not hedge equities as reliably. A more resilient portfolio may need exposure to pricing power, dividend growth, real assets, and resource security.

US stocks pared losses late in the session, with the S&P 500 down 0.2%, the Dow flat, and the Nasdaq off 0.7%. Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, and Tesla fell over 1%, while Nvidia and Apple edged up. Chip stocks also declined, with Broadcom and AMD down around 2% amid policy concerns, and Hims & Hers slumped 15% after missing Q1 expectations. Volume on U.S. exchanges was 19.63 billion shares, compared with the 18.08 billion average.

European stocks fell around 1%, with the Stoxx 600 hitting a one-week low amid a broad risk-off move driven by hotter US inflation. UK stocks lagged on political uncertainty, with banks dropping over 3% and Vodafone sharply lower. Major indices also fell (DAX ~-1.6%, Euro Stoxx 50 ~-1.5%, CAC -0.95%). The German car industry estimates it will lose 235,000 jobs by 2035.

US 10-year yields are at 4.45 after the inflation reading, nearly a 52-week high. The UK surges to 5.10 and the EU to 3.10. GBP manages to lose value despite the high yields due to political uncertainty.

GBPUSD is 1.3540, EURUSD 1.1735, and USDJPY 157.70. Gold and silver are holding well at 4700 and 86.40, with trading interest returning to silver at these levels – technically, 85 and 83 are support levels, while 87 and 90 are resistance levels. Bitcoin is 81,000. Gold is currently trading the 50 Day moving average that Silver has already broken.

Oil loses a little ground this morning, with the US line at 100.60 and the UK at 106.20.

The short-term market outlook will depend on Trump’s visit to China and any agreements or disagreements that may arise around trade, Iran, Taiwan, and tariffs,

There are a lot of topics on the table that can cause sharp moves across assets, from Iran, comments from Kevin Warsh, China, the UK, Ukraine, and of course the unknown unknowns. The volatility is great for traders who enjoy it; others may consider smaller positions, options, or spread trades to limit risks. Investors should focus on long-term strategy…

Wednesday May 13Sweden & France CPI, EU GDP, US PPI,
Earnings: Alibaba, Wix, Cisco,

Thursday May 14
UK GDP, US Import Prices,
Earnings: Klarna,

Friday May 15
US Industrial Production

Monday May 18
UK House Prices, China Retail Sales