Morning Brew May 12 2026

Good morning,

Yesterday’s market was mostly tranquil, but Oil and Silver stole the spotlight. Silver soared more than 7%, and WTI is inching toward $100 a barrel.

US stocks saw heavy action with limited  change in index levels: trading volume on U.S. exchanges hit 21.4 billion shares, well above the 18billion share average.

The S&P 500 closed up 0.2%, and the Nasdaq climbed 0.1%, both notching new record highs. Chipmakers powered the rally thanks to AI optimism: Nvidia gained 2%, Tesla jumped 3.9%, Qualcomm popped 8.4%, AMD advanced 0.8%, and Micron rallied 6.5% as tighter memory supply expectations lifted the sector. The Dow picked up 95 points.

Ole weighed in on precious metals: Gold grudgingly followed silver upward after India’s Prime Minister encouraged 1.4 billion citizens to hold off on gold buying for a year to help ease pressure on FX reserves and the rupee.

This push has driven the XAUXAG ratio down toward key support at 55.50, highlighting silver’s dominance lately. Spot gold is trading in a range, with support just above $4,500 and resistance at the 50-day moving average (now close to $4,770), then $4,850 overhead.

Notably, this is all happening alongside firmer oil prices, which might be hinting at a shift away from the “higher oil → higher inflation → lower gold” narrative that’s been a drag on bullion recently.

Silver volatility spiked 20% yesterday. This morning, silver is trading at 85, gold at 4,706, and platinum at 2,085.

The Ger40 is at 24150 and Rheinmetall is indicated at 1190…

Meanwhile, the US–Iran ceasefire looks to be on “massive life support” after Trump called the Iranian proposal garbage.

Kevin Warsh’s nomination to the Fed Board cleared its first Senate hurdle in a 49–44 vote. A final confirmation to replace Jerome Powell as chair is expected later this week.

According to the China Passenger Car Association, auto sales dropped 21.5% year-over-year to 1.4 million deliveries. With local demand down, expect a wave of affordable Chinese vehicles to hit global markets — China’s known for ramping up exports when home demand falters.

Watch out for today’s US CPI numbers: consensus is 3.7% headline and 2.7% core. We’ll see if the chip rally presses on and keep an eye on precious metals for any moves.

Major themes: Trump’s trip to China, and updates from the Middle East.
Trade safely.

Tuesday May 12

Germany Inflation & ZEW, US CPI
Earnings: First Majestic, On, JD.Com Franco Nevada,
Wednesday May 13
Sweden & France CPI, EU GDP, US PPI,
Earnings: Alibaba, Wix, Cisco,

Thursday May 14
UK GDP, US Import Prices,
Earnings: Klarna,
Friday May 15
US Industrial Production
Monday May 18

UK House Prices, China Retail Sales