US Election: The three possible scenarios and their impact on markets

Prior to the first debate, Donald Trump was gaining momentum, but post-debate, prediction markets have shifted in favor of Kamala Harris. While we await the latest US population polls, Harris is now seen as a strong candidate.

These are the three potential election scenarios:

1. Harris Gridlock: In this scenario, Harris wins the presidency, but Democrats don't secure both houses of Congress. This could lead to fiscal headwinds and a potential recession, favoring defensive sectors like utilities, energy, healthcare, and consumer staples.

2. Trump Sweep: Here, Trump wins the presidency and Republicans take both houses. This scenario could benefit European defense companies, US small-cap industrials, energy companies, and banks, while emerging markets might suffer due to increased tariffs.

3. Harris Sweep: In this scenario, Harris wins the presidency and Democrats secure both houses. This could extend Biden's fiscal programs, benefiting semiconductors, infrastructure, industrial companies, and green energy. Emerging markets might perform better due to fewer political headwinds.

You can find our best guess on which sectors and companies that will gain from the different scenarios in our US election shortlists in SaxoTraderGo by heading to Research->Themes->US election: Shortslists for a Trump or Harris victory

I encourage investors to explore Saxo's US Election Hub for detailed analysis and investment inspiration ahead of the election.